The Truth? You Can't Handle The Truth!!!

The strait is back to being closed. Iran says not interested in talking to the US.

Trump says they are begging to negotiate.

One of these positions is an obvious lie.

The fact that the strait is closed with no scheduled reopening leads me to believe that it is the US that is again lying, as it has about the 28 or 44 or 72 victory declarations it's made.

Here is what we know for sure: The US SPR is now a few weeks away from being empty. US light sweet crude can't possibly supply the US requirement for diesel and jet fuel, which are both biproducts of heavy sour crude from the middle east and Venezuela. Venezuela has been taken offline by earthquakes. The middle east has been largely taken offline by the strait being closed. Russia is rationing due to US and EU orchestrated attacks on its refineries.

Diesel is involved in every step of all supply chains. Jet fuel is a requisite for planes to take off, including military planes. Do the math.

Additionally, helium is necessary for chip manufacturing. 33% of the world's helium comes through the strait, or rather, came. One third of the world's demand is now no longer available (most of it from Qatar, which isn't shipping squat). Additional supply comes from Russia, but that is sanctioned by the US, so that's unavailable for all intents and purposes as well. Everything with a chip in it, from a phone, to a car, to a computer, to a fridge, to a data center, requires helium as one of the first critical manufacturing inputs. Between Russia and Qatar, that is 50% + of the world's helium no longer available.

What do you suppose the net impact of this will be on prices? Diesel prices? Jet A? Semiconductors? Electric cars? Most everything in the modern manufacturing supply chain?

Move to fertilizer. Or rather, sulfur and urea, which are critical to fertilizer production. Between 35% and 45% of the world's urea, and 50%+ of the world's sulfur, comes through the strait. Simply put, nearly half of all the world's fertilizer necessary for food production is now missing in action. This has already hit the 2026 growing season hard, and will result in massive price hikes and famine conditions this fall when the shortages show up in the supply chain. As an example for those making the argument that the US is insulated, US agriculture depends on the middle east for roughly 20% of its urea and phosphate fertilizer. That is now off the market.

I post this so you can better understand the mid-to-long term impact of this devastating war of choice. As the saying goes, you ain't seen nothing yet. All the assumptions about supplies normalizing as the strait is reopened are BS. It is closed. There is no real indication when it will reopen or how long it will take for trade to resume at pre-attack levels after it reopens. This guarantees a massive recession, or more likely, a depression. No way around it, unless you are of the opinion that a 30% energy shock and about the same food shock, and a 50% semi manufacturing shock (don't even get me started on MRIs, that use liquid helium to stay cold) is barely an inconvenience.

The West literally is sleepwalking into global catastrophe while its MSM rearranges deck chairs on the Titanic and assures everyone that it is unsinkable. Spoiler: It is not unsinkable, and unlike dollars, you can’t just push print and create another trillion of oil or helium or urea or sulfur. The artificial pseudo-reality that is the US economy is going to hit a wall soon, where pretend monopoly money is not a substitute for hard assets required to make things.