The next phase of the Epstein files battle.

Remarkably, the Democratic party has done next to nothing in the fight over the Epstein files, so far. Democratic voters have been a key driving force. Some mildly Democratic-sympathetic portions of the media have been mildly aligned strategic allies. But elected officials have been mostly absent, and party leadership has especially been derelict in their duty. This is a hindrance, but not a fatal one. It does, however, necessitate that the loud and proud public be highly mission focused in their rhetoric and to transition now in preparation for what’s about to come.

Now that Congress has been forced to admit that the Epstein files demand their attention, the facts demand a transition into a new strategic phase in the battle. The common refrain has been release the files. But this is on the verge of blowing up in everyone’s faces, and it’s time to adjust.

In truth, it’s rather past due for this shift. The anti-Trump movement doesn’t seem to realize it, but Republicans could be on the verge of winning the war if the plan doesn’t evolve now. The bigger picture seems to have faded from people’s minds. Perhaps it’s more accurate to say that, due to the lack of leadership within the Democratic party, few have bothered to look at the bigger picture in the first place. Whatever the reason, Republicans are certainly assessing the big picture, and have been implementing a long term strategy all summer long.

One of the key dangers for Democrats is that the currently leaderless public anger is already resembling something akin to a mob. Mobs tend to devolve into disjointed kettle logic, strained rationales, and get swept up in emotions without regard for facts. Maga leadership are counting on this, hoping that the Epstein files will turn out to resemble the disastrous Mueller investigation that ultimately made Donald Trump stronger in the eyes of the broader public.

To that end, the next phase of the Epstein files battle should account for the fact that the catalyst of the current political crisis was a single (and quickly deleted) tweet from Elon Musk. And Musk is not to be trusted.

In fact, all Musk did was make a very simple statement that was already so painfully obvious that it was more an accident that anyone paid attention to it. Of course Donald Trump’s name is in the Epstein files. The two were friends for such a long time it would be nearly impossible for his name not to appear in the files, even if only incidentally. Even if Donald Trump were entirely innocent, his name would still be in the files. The main reason people reacted to Musk’s tweet is because they read an assumption into Musk’s tweet: the assumption that Musk was speaking from first hand knowledge derived from his recent time working for the administration.

Musk is a manipulative jackass. He purposely leveraged that suggestion strictly for his own personal gain. He also knew full well that there would be no danger of repercussions for making the accusation (all he said was that Trump’s name “is in” the files). So why did he delete the tweet? For that matter, why have two of the most corrupt, most manipulative, and most vindictive, people in the world mostly reconciled without publicly resolving this? Why aren’t SpaceX contracts being secretly held hostage until Musk publicly repudiates his claims? Has anyone considered that maybe he and Donald Trump have been playing the public all along, setting up another “total exoneration” moment?

Donald Trump may not want the public to be talking about his relationship with Epstein, but inasmuch as they are, he wants the issue to play out this way, and right now, because he can better control the narative in the long run. The Epstein controversy is the Mueller investigation 2.0, except this time he gets to dictate the final report.

The next phase of the Epstein files battle needs to recognize some fundamental truths, with expectations and objectives adjusted accordingly.

• There will be no incriminating evidence to come out.

• Even the Biden era DOJ already made clear that everyone indictable in the Epstein/Maxwell cases has already been charged (i.e. Maxwell and Epstein).

• After a decade as the most divisive politician in American history, nobody has come forward with even an anonymous accusation against Donald Trump related to Epstein.

• Anything seemingly incriminating is currently under the control of Pamela Bondi, and there is no reason to believe that she won’t go so far as to destroy allegedly incriminating evidence before allowing it to be public.

• A lack of prosecutable evidence does not mean Donald Trump is innocent, nor preclude convincing the broader public that the chances of his de facto guilt are high.

• If “everything” is eventually released, the true audience to reach will be shallow thinking swing voters who rarely consume news, don’t pay attention to political information, and who formulate their opinions based on hearing repetitious catch phrases.

Not all crimes are able to be prosecuted, because criminals usually do what they can to avoid, minimize, and eliminate evidence. This is all the more true for very wealthy, and very well connected criminals. If the day comes when the full files are released, there still won’t be some grand revelation of criminal activity related to Trump’s associations with Epstein. At least, not that would support legal action. When that happens, he and his Maga following will mercilessly attack their opponents for failing to show a convictable crime. So the approach needs to change now. Because waiting until after the full release will only be received as making post hoc excuses for having been wrong.

While the Epstein files won’t reveal anything incriminating, he’s adversarial to releasing them because he still knows he’s done terrible and illegal things. That’s the point that should become the focus of the public fight. If Donald Trump is innocent, why are Republicans so desperate to cover for him? That is the chorus that should be repeated a hundred times a day. That’s the only way to drive a message beyond the echo chamber and into the broader public.

The inferences drawn from his hiding, his far reaching efforts for a cover up, and every unhinged tweet/untruth, can still be used against Donald Trump and Maga in the court of politics, if the discourse shifts now. The fact that the Epstein files don’t contain incriminating evidence makes for a convincing argument that the extreme sensitivity to their release is indicative of a guilty conscious.

Were Democratic Party leadership actually engaged in this discussion (or to put it another way, if Hakeem Jeffries was even halfway to being competent) messaging would have shifted months ago, with members of Congress continually coordinating the public’s outrage. Instead we’ve seen Republicans executing a well designed plan to obfuscate the truth by pretending to investigate. And many Democratic voters have actually cheered these moves, under the mistaken belief that these Republicans actually care about uncovering the truth.

Spoiler alert: The only thing Congressional Republicans care about is how to most effectively serve Donald Trump. They will eventually release the Epstein files. And when they do, they will tell the world that the files prove Donald Trump is innocent. And when that happens, if the message speaking on behalf of the Democratic side is to dissect the finer points of logical fallacies, the 2026 elections will slip ever further away. And with it, our republic.