The New Scramble for Africa: The Coastal West

A recent major change is the diversification of security relationships by Togo, balancing the West with Russia. The military alliance between Togo and Russia provides for a safe operating rear base for the Russian forces in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. This will also tend to integrate Togo economically with those three nations as an allied route to the Atlantic coast. After a period of Marxism, Benin had returned to a close relationship with France, as well as the US, but has recently moved to regularize relations with the nationalist states of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger; Benin benefits as a trade corridor between the three nations and the Atlantic coast. The moves of Togo and Benin will help strengthen the three AES states and weaken the Western and Nigerian-dominated ECOWAS further, in addition to the improving AES relations with Algeria.

The Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau have managed to maintain a more independent foreign policy alignment; the former was a British colony and the latter a Portuguese colony. Guinea had to survive multiple attempts from France to destabilize the country after it refused to be part of the neocolonial France-Afrique, and has in recent years become much more aligned with China through the Chinese development of its extensive iron ore deposits. Ghana stands out as a relatively well run social democracy, with a non-aligned foreign policy. Although Sierra Leone has close historical ties with the UK, it also has a strategic partnership with China; with China heavily involved in its mining sector.

Nationalist leaderships in Liberia (1970s) and Ivory Coast (2000s) were overthrown with US and French aid respectively and successfully returned to a neocolonial Western-oriented status. They are the only two countries in this region that can be said to be fully within the Western camp.

Ivory Coast and Ghana are the two population heavyweights of the region, followed by Benin and Guinea. Incomes are low, ranging from (GDP per capita at PPP) US$8,000 in Ghana and US$7,700 in Ivory Coast, to US$2,000 in Liberia.

The country became independent from the UK in 1965, under the leadership of Jawara who had been prime minister since 1962. He peacefully consolidated power and ruled until 1994. At independence the country was dependent upon agriculture (groundnuts) and tourism and the economic structure has not changed considerably since. In 1985 the country undertook a deep structural adjustment program that greatly facilitated corruption and illegal activities. By 1994, the country was still one of the poorest and least developed in Africa, and Jawara was overthrown in a bloodless coup that lead to the leadership of Jammeh. An authoritarian state was implemented, with Jammeh ruling until 2017.

Jammeh surprisingly lost the 2016 election to Barrow but refused to accept the results, triggering an ECOWAS intervention that forced Jammeh to hand over power to Barrow, who remains in power after being re-elected. The foreign policy is non-aligned, with large investments from China which have helped develop the country. Exports are dominated by China (36%), Mali (25%) and Senegal (12%). The biggest sources of imports are China, the EU, Brazil and India. GDP per capita at PPP is about US$3,000.

The country gained independence from Portugal in 1973 after an armed struggle.

The new nation was lead by Cabral as a socialist state with aid from the Soviet Union, China and the Nordic countries while maintaining good relations with Portugal. Cabral was overthrown in a coup in 1980 by Vieira and a military government lasted until 1984; replaced with a civilian Vieira regime until 1999. In 1998 a civil war broke out, forcing Vieira out of office in 1999. Only to return as the elected president in 2005. During this period after the start of the civil war, Colombian cocaine traffickers started to open a logistics network using the country as the entry point for a route flowing through Mali, Niger, Algeria and Libya; helping to fund insurgents in the region. By 2008 the country was already a strategic hub for the cocaine traffickers, and this drives security cooperation with Portugal and the US.

Vieria was assassinated by the army in 2009, with Sanha taking over until his death in 2012. This was followed by a military coup which was ended with the help of ECOWAS intervention; with the election of Vaz in 2014. In 2020, the elected Embalo took power and suspended the legislature in 2022; ruling by decree. With the ruling party looking at a loss in the 2025 elections, an establishment coup was carried out with Embalo being allowed to leave the country. He was replaced with Horta N’Tam as the head of a provisional government, with elections scheduled for the end of this year. In the past few years, the country has moved to deepen the relationship with China; upgraded to a strategic partnership in 2024.

The main exports, apart from cocaine, are seafood and agricultural products with India the dominant market. Imports, apart from cocaine, are dominated by Portugal, China, Senegal and Pakistan. GDP per capita at PPP is about US$3,200.

Guinea gained independence from France in 1958, with Toure establishing a one-party socialist state align with the Soviet Union. Because the country had rejected membership in the “French community” for real independence; the only French ex-colony to do so. France worked to destroy the independence of the country, through the immediate withdrawal of French specialists who also destroyed infrastructure and equipment, took and burnt public records and even medical supplies; a scorched earth policy. All currency reserves were taken from the central bank and the financial records destroyed. Then a covert war was waged against the country, including the arming of a mercenary Guinean army and the creation of massive amounts of counterfeit Guinean currency; coordinated to completely destabilize the country. Called Operation Persil, the operation unravelled in 1960 after leaks and a Senegalese interception of an arms shipment; creating a diplomatic scandal.

Toure’s state became increasingly repressive, with up to 50,000 people being killed by the state during his rule, at the Camp Boiro concentration camp. There were some economic reforms in the late 1970s and early 1980s, before Toure’s death in 1984. Conte came to power through a bloodless coup, liberalized the economy and managed a transfer to civilian rule in 1992 through which he ruled until his death in 2008. Camara then seized power in a military coup, but was shot and injured in 2009 and during his absence from the country the vice president lead a move to civilian rule and free elections. Conde became the first democratically elected president of the country and ruled to 2021, when he was overthrown in a military coup by Dombouya; with the latter still in power.

Exports are dominated by bauxite (developed with Chinese investment) and gold, predominantly to China (74% of the bauxite exports), India the UAE and Europe. China has made very large investments over nearly two decades to develop the mining, railway line, shipping and logistics related to the bauxite industry. As well as more recently investing in alumina refineries and related energy infrastructure in the country. These have been transformative, turning Guinea into the largest bauxite producer in the world, with 40% of global output. It is now also engaged in a massive iron ore project driven by Chinese investments, with exports increasing rapidly from what had been the world’s largest untapped iron ore resource. Imports are dominated by China (36.5%) and the EU (29.3%). GDP per capita at PPP is about US$4,600.

The question for Guinea is whether the mineral wealth can be turned into economic development that benefits the general population in a sustainable fashion. The government is already moving to increase the amount of downstream processing down within the country, to capture more of the value added within the supply chain.

Under colonialism, the colony was used to resettle some African Americans that had fought for the British in the US War of Independence and became known as the Black Loyalists. Later Black Loyalist settlers from Nova Scotia founded Freetown and contributed significantly to the Krio (Creole) people and language. Jamaican Maroons were added in 1800, together with other waves of Afro-American and Afro-Caribbean immigrants. After the British abolition of slavery, liberated Africans from slave ships were also settled in the colony. The vast majority of these settlers were Christian and they played an important role in the spread of Christianity in West Africa. The colony also became the educational centre of British West Africa, with the only Western-style university in the region. The Krio people acted as traders between the British and the indigenous population, and many of them held positions in the colonial government. From 1896 onwards though, the British government expanded its role with the result that many Krio were pushed out of administrative positions. In many respects, Sierra Leone represents a British version of the American Liberia.

The country gained independence in 1961 under the elected Margai, who died in 1964, with his younger half-brother who established an increasingly authoritarian regime. He also replaced many Creoles in government positions and attempted to place individuals from his own tribe in the armed forces. When the opposition won the elections of 1967 they were overthrown by Margai allies in a coup, only to be overthrown in an opposition coup in the same year. After yet another coup in 1968, the winner of the election, Stevens, took office. He established an increasingly authoritarian state and ruled until 1985, when he stepped down and was replaced by his close ally Momoh. Corruption was high under both presidents, with limited economic development and the criminalization of the dominant diamond industry.

With the help of Liberia, a rebel group (RUF) attempted to overthrow Momoh’s regime from 1991 onwards and rapidly gained control of large swathes of the country. In 1992, Momoh was overthrown in a military coup and replaced with the 25 year old Strasser. By 1994 the RUF had been pushed back to the border areas with the government forces aided by mercenaries. Strasser was overthrown in another coup that brought democratic election that were won by Kabbah. But then in 1997 another military coup by disgruntled army officers and established the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council as the new government; allying with the RUF to form a new regime. Intervention by Nigerian-led ECOMOG and British troops was required to end the civil war in 2002, after 50,000 civilian deaths and hundreds of thousands displaced.

Kabbah was re-elected in a landslide in 2002, who was replaced with the winner of multi-party elections in 2007, Koroma (2007 to 2018). He was democratically replaced with Bio who remains in office after a disputed 2022 election. The governments continue close ties with the UK, and the country received the most British aid per capita of any nation in the 2010s. At the same time, the country has a comprehensive strategic partnership with China and in 2025, of thirty five large-scale mining investments in Sierra Leone, 22 were from Chinese companies.

Exports are dominated by iron and titanium ore, diamonds and other ores predominantly going to China (about 50%), with imports dominated by China and India. GDP per capita at PPP is about US$3,500.

Liberia started as a project of the American Colonization Society in the nineteenth century, a place for free Black Americans to emigrate to; between 1822 and 1861, 18,200 Black Americans and Black Caribbeans settled in the country. These colonists carried developed a separate Americo-Liberian identity while colonizing the indigenous population. The country declared its independence in 1847.

The country was not affected by the “Scramble for Africa” and has ruled itself ever since. It received significant investment in the early twentieth century from Firestone (still a major influence in the country), and then in WW2 as it joined the US war effort. The country was ruled by the Americo-Liberian elite from its first days of independence, through the “True Whig” party. During the 27-year presidency of Tubman (1944 to 1971) the franchise was extended to the 80% of the population that were indigenous, with positions within the government being given to indigenous people, and distinctions between ethnic groups greatly reduced. Foreign direct investment greatly increased and his presidency is seen as a “golden age”of prosperity; but much of the land that such FDI occupied had been taken from tribal lands that did not have clear legal claims of ownership. The country remained a steadfast US ally, while elections were still performative, and inequality was still vast.

In the 1970s the True Whig president moved toward a more independent foreign policy, including closer relations with the Soviet Union, and moved to reduce inequality somewhat. After rice riots in 1979, a coup in 1980 installed the first indigenous president, Samuel Doe. The prior president and much of his cabinet were executed. Doe turned out to be a US puppet, aligning the country fully with the US and favouring his own tribe. His totalitarian, incompetent and deeply corrupt administration lead to a civil war from 1989 to 1997, with the rebels lead by the Americo-Liberian US asset Taylor. A man who had earned a degree in the US, been part of the Doe coup and had served in the Doe government before being fired fopr embezzlement, and had been imprisoned in the US (for embezzlement) awaiting extradition to Liberia, but was allowed to walk out of that prison under still murky circumstances. Doe became a prisoner of the rebels and was then tortured and executed in 1990. Peace talks started from 1995 and elections were held in 1997, with Taylor winning in an environment of widespread intimidation and a shattered country.

After two years of peace, a new civil war broke out that, with both sides using child soldiers extensively. The war ended in 2003 with Taylor fleeing the country.

In 2005, the Harvard-educated economist Sirleaf was elected in what were seen as free and fair elections. She had fled the country in 1980 and worked for the World Bank, Citibank and HSBC. In 1992 she was appointed as the director of the United Nations Development Program’s Regional Bureau for Africa. She also worked for the Soros Foundation’s Open Society for West Africa. She was also awarded the highly-politicized Nobel Peace Prize which is dominated by Western interests. She forged close relations with the US, including offering Liberia as the host nations for the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), while also accepting aid from China to help rebuild the country. She remained in power until 2017, while being lauded by the Western media.

In 2017 Weah, who had enjoyed a very successful football career in Europe, was elected. Under his leadership, the country voted for the US hosting the 2026 Football World Cup; going against the rest of Africa that was supporting a Moroccan bid. He worked to establish stronger ties with France, as well as maintaining the historically strong alliance with the US. In 2024, Boakai who was a vice president under Sirleaf, was elected. He has focused on strengthening ties with the US. The attempt to rebalance Liberia’s foreign policy away from the US in the 1970s has been thoroughly defeated, through coups and two civil wars. Liberia is perhaps the African country most aligned with the US.

Exports are dominated by rubber, iron ore, gold and agricultural products with the US the biggest trading partner (37.5%), followed by Belgium (21.5%). Only 6.5% of Liberian exports go to China. In contrast, the country’s imports are dominated by Cote D’Ivoire, China and India. GDP per capita at PPP is about US$2,000. The economy is significantly dominated by foreign corporations, and income and wealth inequality are very high. Much of the Americo-Liberian economic dominance has been lost, exchanged for a neocolonial foreign ownership model.

The country gained independence in 1960 from France, and was ruled by Houphouet-Boigny (a Western-educated doctor) as a one-party state until 1993; part of an elite loyal to France. During this period the country was strongly aligned with France and the West, part of neocolonial France-Afrique structure. The country was easily French West Africa’s most prosperous nation and became the world’s leading cocoa exporter in 1979, third in the world for coffee exports and a major exporter of pineapples and palm oil. The French population actually grew post-independence, from 30,000 to 60,000 and economic growth averaged 10% per annum; with French troops stationed in the country, and French nationals in senior administrative positions and acting as political aides. The country also operated as a French base and tool against other African leaders, including siding with the US and South Africa in Angola.

The economy had not become diversified from primary sector dominance, and the global recession at the end of the 1970s and into the 1980s, together with a severe drought caused a financial crisis. Government debt expanded rapidly as it bought up produce at above market prices. Living standards fell through the 1980s and unrest in both the general population and the military grew. By the end of the 1980s the government was forced into austerity policies and deepening state repression. The president had also taken much of the nation’s wealth, with an estimated net worth of as much as US$10 billion, together with a well-connected small elite.

The president died in 1993 and was succeeded by the French educated Bedie, under whom state violence and corruption escalated. He was overthrown in a coup in 1999, and was eventually succeeded by Gbagbo in an extremely limited election. The latter’s period in office was riven with a civil war with the Muslim north (the south was predominantly Christian) and extensive state violence. Gbagbo took a more nationalist stance that placed him at odds with France, which was seen as supporting the northern rebels.

He was deposed with the aid of French and UN troops, with the winner of the 2010 election (Ouattara) taking office. He is still in office, having won in a series of elections with implausible shares of the vote and the opposition boycotting the 2020 election. He gained a BA, MA and PhD at universities in the US, and worked extensively with the IMF and French financial institutions.

Exports are dominated by cocoa, precious metals, oil and rubber predominantly going to Europe and the US. Imports are predominantly oil and manufactured goods, from the EU (23.5%), China (16%) and Nigeria (13%). GDP per capita at PPP is US$7,700. Most of the wealth is concentrated in the southwest, with the north and east being much poorer.

Ghana gained independence from Britain in 1957, under the leadership of Nkrumah. He established a one party authoritarian state and was overthrown by a military coup in 1966. After a short interlude of civilian rule, the Acheampong military regime took power though a coup in 1972, followed by another military regime after a coup lead by Akuffo in 1978; both regime’s were deeply corrupt and there were significant economic problems. As civil elections approached in 1979, Rawlings lead yet another military coup and headed the resulting regime. He oversaw the execution of eight military officers and three previous heads of state; Acheampong, Akuffo and Afrifa (military ruler from 1969 to 1970). After handing over power to a civilian administration in 1979, he overthrew that administration in a coup in 1981.

With the economy in a deep recession, due to a slump in cocoa prices, a major drought in 1993 and the expulsion of one million Ghanians from Nigeria, together with his own administration’s mistakes, he was forced to implement an IMF structural adjustment program in 1983. This included a large currency devaluation, the cutting of price controls and social service subsidies and some privatization.

He ruled a one party state until elected through multi-party elections in 1992 and 1996. He strove to move away from neocolonial economic dependence, reversing the civilian administration’s boycott of Libya. But in the second half of the 1980s he moved closer to the West. He stepped down in 2001, due to a two-term limit for any elected president. He had stabilized the economy and managed a transition to a stable democracy. He was succeeded by the democratically elected Kufuor who ruled until 2009. With the help of large Western donor grants, he carried out social democratic policies which included the establishment of a national health service, better education, enhanced social services and infrastructure investment. He was succeeded by Mills, who served until his death in 2012 and carried on the policies of Kufuor. Mahama then ruled from 2012 until 2017, and was elected again in 2025. During the hiatus, Ghana suffered a debt crisis under Akufo-Addo.

The country’s main exports are dominated by gold (63%), followed by cocoa beans (9%) and petroleum (8%) mainly to the UAE, India and Switzerland. Imports are mainly from China (23%), the US, Netherlands, Belgium and Nigeria. GDP per capita at PPP is US$8,027. It does have a high level of income equality, but less than some of its neighbours and the greatest level of income inequality is in the northern regions. Ghana stands out as a relatively well run social democratic country, with a non-aligned foreign policy.

Togo gained independence in 1960, but after a short period of a one party state and then a military coup, an interim government and then a democratically elected government, Eyadema gained power through another coup. He ruled as a dictator from 1967 to 2005, when his son took over his mantle and won fraudulent elections and has remained in power ever since. Six decades of widespread repression and corruption.

Togo has been a strong ally of France, which has acted diplomatically, financially, economically and militarily to support the six decades of dictatorship. In 2022, the dictatorship was allowed to join the British Commonwealth.

But recently, Togo has been diversifying its security relationships. It signed a military agreement with Russia which allows for joint military exercises and training, a sharing of intelligence, the use of Togo’s port by the Russian navy and the use of Togo’s airfields by the Russian air force. This provides the Russian forces in Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger with a safe logistics hub and airports, while also providing Togo with a Russian protector for its northern border. Russia is also thinking about building a railway and pipeline to its landlocked allies of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. This will help re-route trade from the interior through Togo. Russia is also providing educational fellowships to students from Togo.

Togo’s main exports are refined petroleum, phosphates and agricultural products with its biggest export market by far being India, followed by Benin and China. Its largest suppliers of imports are is China, 30%. Its GDP per capita at PPP is US$3,000.

Benin gained independence from France in 1960. After more than a decade of coups and regime changes reflecting the tribal diversity of the country, Kerekou gained power through a coup in 1972 and established a Marxist one-party state. The economy was placed predominantly under state control and relations with the Soviet Union, China, North Korea and Cuba were deepened. The economy grew rapidly in the 1970s though debt-financed development that was undone by the 1980s global recession, the closure of Nigeria-Benin border between 1984 and 1986, badly run state enterprises, and the the fall of the Soviet bloc. With deepening austerity required by an IMF rescue package, and an deepening national economic and financial crisis, civil unrest intensified. Kerekou held a national conference in 1990 that resulted in 1991 in elections which he lost. He handed power over peacefully to the winner Soglo.

Kerekou returned to power, as a born-again Christian, in the 1996 elections. He continued the prior free market and structural adjustment policies, undoing what he had spent a decade and a half building. He won another term in disputed 2001 elections, and then was democratically replaced by Boni in 2006 who ruled until 2016. Then Talon for a decade, and this year the French and Harvard educated and ex-Deloitte partner (France, the US and Africa) Wadagni in elections seen as neither free nor fair.

After the period of Marxism, the country had strengthened relations with France (the predominant development partner) and the US. But Wadagni has recently reached out to the three land-locked countries of the Alliance of Sahel states (AES), Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger that utilize Benin’s ports. Niger also needs the continued operation of a Chinese-built oil pipeline through Benin to the sea . The routes through the Benin border have been impacted by the insurgency, and require military cooperation to stop insurgent interdiction, as well as insurgent incursions into Benin. The country stands to gain from greater security, transit and port fees. Wadagni seems to be also cognizant of the popularity across Africa of the new nationalist leaders of the AES.

Benin exports are dominated by agricultural products such as cotton, soy, and cashews predominantly going to Bangladesh, India and Pakistan (all of which have significant textile industries). Imports are dominated by Europe, India and China. GDP per capita at PPP is about US$4,500.