Florida’s Wild Election Night

And just like that, the “Insurgent Left” is hot again.

In Florida’s primaries on Tuesday, Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon stunned her opponent, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, with a 12-point victory in the Democratic primary for US Senate. Not only was Vindman heavily favored in the polls and prediction markets, but he also outraised Nixon $16M to $1M.

Angie Nixon, a former state representative from Jacksonville, will now face Ashley Moody in November, a race in which she will once again be an underdog. In her victory speech Tuesday night, Nixon said, “We have proved that everyday people are more powerful than corporations and millionaires. Together we went up against the political establishment – against millions of dollars of outside spending. We were outspent 16 to 1 and we won.” The two other Democratic Socialist-aligned candidates lost their races, though they were even bigger longshots than Nixon.

On the Republican side, the big headlines were that the anti-Israel candidates, James Fishback and Dan Bilzerian, lost in landslides. In the Republican primary for governor, Byron Donalds won with 47.8% of the support, while James Fishback – who centered his campaign around opposing Israel and received endorsements from Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson, and Andrew Tate – got just 10.5% of the vote.

Meanwhile, social media influencer Dan Bilzerian got just 18.7% of the vote in his loss to incumbent Randy Fine in a House primary race. The two candidates were polar opposites on Israel. Randy Fine is perhaps the most vocal pro-Israel voice in the House, while Dan Bilzerian considers Israel an evil state. He released an ad that called Fine a “fat Jew,” “Shylock,” “Jewish supremacist,” and “Satanic whore.”

So all in all, it was a great night in Florida for the Insurgent Left, but a terrible one for the Insurgent Right.

–Max Towey

On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made a surprise announcement to try and curb rising bond yields. We break down the situation below.

This week, yields on 30-year US treasury bonds – the rate the US government must pay investors to hold its debt that matures in 30 years – hit their highest level since 2007, before the Great Recession. The fact raises questions about long-term growth and inflation.

When market yields rise, it means investors are demanding higher compensation to buy and hold those bonds, which directly raises the government’s borrowing costs. So why are they up?

A few reasons: The war in Iran is creating sustained economic volatility, with the perpetual risk of energy prices moving sharply higher, fueling inflation. That comes as inflation remains persistently above the Fed’s 2% target, leaving the door open to future rate hikes. Investors also have concerns about the US deficit, and companies are borrowing record amounts to fuel their own AI investments, creating competition for the loans.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the high rates suggest a return to the pre-2008 era, when higher rates were the norm. The paper writes:

If the 2008-09 financial crisis ushered in an era of ultralow interest rates, then current market conditions might mark a return to the way things were before that downturn, some say. Investors are hesitant to buy longer-term bonds because of the risk that rates could move higher, and possibly much higher, even if the Fed doesn’t move immediately.

Bloomberg adds:

The move is likely vexing to Trump administration officials, who early last year said the president’s fiscal policies would pull down long-term interest rates by taming government spending and inflation. Instead, Treasury rates have marched higher this year, rippling through to the cost of mortgages and other loans, as the US war on Iran hits the economy with an oil-price shock and the government continued to spend far more than it brings in.

On Wednesday, Secretary Bessent announced that the US would buy back more bonds (more of its debt), a way to push down yields. The news caught the market by surprise and led yields sharply down. But will it make a difference?

Aaron Back,

But the size of the planned repurchases is miniscule, doubling from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. In July alone, the Federal budget deficit was $432 billion. The existence of this deficit means the Treasury’s firepower to buy back debt is inherently limited. In effect, it can only buy back long-term bonds by issuing more short-term ones.

To have a sustained impact on long-term yields, there would have to be meaningful deficit reduction, which is unlikely, to say the least, in the current political environment.

Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise was also skeptical:

The buyback is a clear signal the Treasury is watching markets and is concerned about long-end yields. That sort of increase in flow cannot in and of itself turn the tide of long-end selling, though the signal may be sufficient to prompt further short-covering.

If they’re right, it means there’s no easy way out to curb the rising costs of US debt.

–Max Frost

Arnold Palmer That… Hydrates?

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Moderna announced positive results from a late-stage trial of its personalized melanoma vaccine, more than doubling its stock price and sending its market value from ~$25B to ~$70B overnight.

Melanoma is widely considered the most dangerous – and deadliest – form of skin cancer and can spread rapidly if not detected and treated early. It accounts for just ~1% of skin cancer cases but the majority of skin cancer deaths.

The treatment – which combines Moderna’s personalized mRNA cancer vaccine with Merck’s immune drug Keytruda – met its goals in its first late-stage clinical trial, involving ~1,100 patients who had previously undergone surgery for advanced or high-risk melanoma. The combination is designed to keep the cancer from returning for longer and reduce the risk of it spreading to other parts of the body.

Merck and Moderna will continue studying survival outcomes in the late-stage trial. The companies are expected to begin seeking FDA approval “in the next few months,” a company representative told CNBC, with Moderna hoping to bring the vaccine to market as early as 2027.

Moderna’s stock more than doubled on the news, reaching as high as $174 during Wednesday’s trading session and making Moderna a ~$70B company. Merck’s stock rose ~12%, bringing its valuation to roughly $375B.

Merck and Moderna are also testing the combination in other cancers, including lung, kidney, and bladder tumors.

–Billy Carney

The Roca Mag

The Lord of the Rings creator J.R.R. Tolkien earned the moniker “father of modern fantasy” by creating a universe that people of all ages could enjoy. I’ll never forget the summer when my brother and I watched those movies on repeat. Simpler times.

In the century since Tolkien created Middle-earth, we’ve seen the rise in Harry Potter-themed amusement parks, trick-or-treaters wearing mass-produced Star Wars costumes, and real-life hobbit holes on Airbnb. The allure of fantasy is that you can live closer to the safe space your favorite characters and places once created in your imagination.

One August afternoon when I was a kid, my dad pulled out his draft board. It was time for him to live his real-life fantasy: NFL general manager.

My dad loves to host fantasy football drafts. It’s probably his favorite hangout of the year. He and his friends get together in person, drafting teams of NFL players based on hunches and what-ifs. You know when dads prepare for things hours earlier than they need to because they just can’t resist? That was my dad, doing yardwork at 7 AM to clear the fire pit for his 7 PM fantasy draft.

But after the largest-ever single-year growth in sports betting, fantasy football is becoming way too serious, and the joy my dad still holds for draft day is far from how the world is coming to see it.

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