Copper Is Being Pulled To The United States, Increased Global Competition For Copper Means That $10/lb Isn’t Far Off

Copper has spent much of 2026 telling us that something fundamental is changing beneath the surface. Inventories outside the United States are falling, physical premiums remain elevated, mine supply growth continues to disappoint, and geopolitical tensions are increasingly forcing governments to think about copper not simply as a commodity, but as a strategic asset.

Copper (Weekly)

Now, two major Wall Street banks are putting numbers around what this new environment could mean.

UBS believes copper can reach $15,000-$15,500 per tonne during 2027 as persistent supply deficits tighten the physical market. Citi goes considerably further. In a scenario where governments begin aggressively stockpiling critical minerals, Citi estimates copper could need to rise to more than $23,000 per tonne to generate enough additional scrap supply and demand destruction to rebuild inventories.

That is a remarkable number. But perhaps even more important is the logic behind it.