The political universe collapsed into a frenzy over the outcome of the Wisconsin Democratic primary race for governor, where the candidate who identified as a Democratic Socialist lost despite a 20-point lead in the polls days before the election. As with almost everything in politics, Francesca Hong’s loss has been turned into a Rorschach test for political commentators. Every interpretation of the loss that can be posited has been—and in an astounding coincidence, the interpretations always align with the commentator’s political worldview. So, for the conservative Wall Street Journal, Francesca Hong’s loss was the death knell of the progressive movement in America. See WSJ, Midwesterners Show the Limits of the Far-Left.
I don’t know the true explanation for Hong’s loss, and I suspect there isn't a single explanation. But when there are competing explanations, Occam’s Razor tells us that we should prefer the simplest one—i.e., the explanation that requires the fewest assumptions.
As I see it, voters in Wisconsin changed their minds over concerns about Hong’s electability. That dynamic may have also been at work in Michigan, given Haley Stevens' stronger-than-expected showing. In identifying that explanation, I do not mean to criticize or diminish the victories of David Crowley or Abdul El-Sayed. Both candidates won tough races and are good candidates for their respective states.
Being able to pivot at the last moment—or in response to rapidly changing circumstances—is a sign of a sophisticated electorate laser-focused on winning the general election. We saw the same dynamic at work in California’s governor’s race, where the “top-two” primary system threatened to lock out Democratic candidates from the general election. In response to that potential disaster, many pro-democracy authors urged California Democrats to hold onto their ballots until polls identified the Democratic candidate with the best chance of seizing one of the top two spots.
California Democrats heeded the advice. Slower-than-usual early voting returns caused mild panic among Democratic strategists, but by election day, Democratic voters rallied decisively behind Xavier Becerra
Was Becerra the best candidate in the Democratic field? Maybe, maybe not. But he was the strategic choice given a flawed primary system.
So, too, with efforts by Democratic states to adopt mid-census redistricting in response to Trump’s demand that red states engage in mid-census redistricting. Although such redistricting is a form of gerrymandering, Democratic voters recognized that doing so was a necessity to block Trump’s efforts to amplify the unfair advantage of Republicans in the House of Representatives—a result of decades of partisan gerrymandering.
Rebecca Solnit has famously said that “voting is a chess move, not a valentine.” In other words, vote with your head, not your heart—at least until we have rescued democracy from the MAGA fever dream of a white Christian nationalist dictatorship.
There are, of course, competing explanations. Wisconsin has an open primary system, so it is possible that Republican voters boosted Crowley’s vote total. But if someone were trying to model the outcome of the race by assuming that Democrats were focused on electability, Crowley would be the predicted winner.
But whatever the explanation for the polling miss, the cynical view that “Democrats are in disarray” is a Republican talking point and media “counter-narrative” designed to drive reader engagement—a view that is demonstrably false. Immediately after the close races in Wisconsin and Michigan, the Democratic Party hosted “unity rallies” in both states. Both Haley Stevens and Francesca Hong attended those rallies and called for party unity. See, e.g., Wisconsin Public Radio, Wisconsin Democrats preach unity as Hong endorses Crowley.
The “Democrats are in disarray” narrative would make sense if the losing candidates refused to concede and did not endorse their victorious opponents, but that is not what happened in the Wisconsin and Michigan elections. The only candidate who refused to concede and suggested voter fraud was Mike Lindell, who lost the Republican primary race for Minnesota governor. See The Hill, Mike Lindell refuses to concede Minnesota GOP gubernatorial primary to Lisa DeMuth.
And speaking of a party in disarray, Lindell was endorsed by Trump but lost. Likewise, Trump endorsed Amir Hassan in Michigan and Rep. Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and both lost their primaries. Even Darline Graham (Lindsey Graham’s sister) was forced into a runoff despite being endorsed by Trump. If the press wants to write about a party in disarray, it should focus on the party in which the president’s endorsement cannot carry a candidate to victory.
The Democratic Party is not in disarray; voters appear to be selecting candidates based on electability in the general election—a sign of a healthy, smart, motivated electorate. We should avoid unwittingly amplifying that false narrative being peddled by the media and paid political operatives.
The story of Trump’s return flight from the NATO conference in Ankara keeps getting worse. The “legacy” Air Force One was the subject of a credible threat of attack by a shoulder-fired missile. Trump created the false impression that he would be on the legacy plane, when he was surreptitiously moved to a military aircraft. But he left many senior staffers and the press pool on the legacy plane—which was the subject of the credible threat. In doing so, he exposed them to an elevated risk of death without their knowledge or consent. See CNN, Trump’s secret plane swap is more problematic than it might seem.
As we learn more details, Trump’s actions become even more troubling. He allowed a handful of close personal aides to fly with him on the decoy plane, along with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. See NYTimes: Which Trump Officials Joined Him on His Secret Flight Out of Turkey?
Per the Times,
Joining him on the [military transport plane] were Ms. Harp, his ever-present aide; Mr. Nauta, his longtime “body man” who now is the head of Oval Office operations; and Mr. Scavino, a deputy White House chief of staff and head of presidential personnel, who has also handled Mr. Trump’s social media for years.
But Trump left behind on the decoy plane Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In addition, Trump left behind the following officials on the decoy plane:
[T]op policy adviser Stephen Miller; the White House communications director, Steven Cheung; the staff secretary, Will Scharf; the deputy national security adviser, Michael Needham,; the deputy chief of staff Richard Walters; the aide Christopher Ambrosini; and staff members from the White House advance team, the official said.
In addition, members of the White House press pool remained on the decoy plane but were not advised of the credible threat.
Trump’s actions were reckless and callous. If anything had gone wrong, Trump would have been directly responsible for the deaths of his aides and the members of the press pool. Trump’s indifference to the lives of his aides and the press is not mitigated by the fact that the decoy plane was not attacked by Iran.
It is also a sign of Trump’s vanity and narcissism that he brought with him those aides who most resemble personal servants—his “body man” Walt Nauta, his human photocopier and Diet Coke concierge Natalie Harp, and his social media manager, Dan Scovino.
The national security implications of Trump’s reckless maneuver are significant. Nearly all of his cabinet, the press, and the intelligence community were under a false impression regarding Trump’s travel status. If an attack had taken place on the decoy plane, the assumption would have been that Trump was on the legacy Air Force One—resulting in a temporary belief that a US president had been killed. Even if that false assumption was quickly corrected, it would have created space for an enemy to launch a cyber or kinetic attack on the US.
This story will only get worse for Trump as we learn more details. But the callousness toward the cabinet members, staff members, and press pool on the decoy plane is unforgivable. And cowardly.
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has been at sea for nine months—an unprecedented deployment in modern times. Typically, aircraft carriers are at sea for six months. See The Guardian, USS Abraham Lincoln sailors tried to jump overboard amid extended deployment – reports | US military.
The extended deployment has taken a toll on the crew. Per The Guardian,
Two leading specialist military papers, the Navy Times and Stars and Stripes, are reporting that there have been multiple attempts by sailors to jump overboard as poor conditions and mental stresses on the Lincoln reach the breaking point. The crew is in its ninth month at sea, and has spent 250 days consecutively without making land – a record for an aircraft carrier in modern times.
Mike Levin, a Democratic member of Congress from California, has sounded the alarm over conditions onboard the warship, which is in its fifth month of combat operations against Iran. He described the lot of the crew on X as “moldy showers, broken toilets, laundry down for weeks, long stretches with no hot water, a meal that came down to half a cup of rice and two tortillas. No soap, deodorant, or toothpaste.”
The military's failure to provision and protect personnel in the field is unforgivable. It is a direct consequence of Trump’s lack of planning and strategy in attacking Iran—and his stubborn refusal to acknowledge that the US has lost its war against Iran. He is forcing sailors, soldiers, and pilots to bear the consequences of his incompetence. This is a scandal of the first order and should be the subject of press and congressional scrutiny—and protest signs. Bring our troops home!
I attended another screening of the Lightworkers documentary in Los Angeles tonight, so I will need to cut the newsletter short. Along with the film’s producer Bobby Roth, I helped to introduce the film and answer questions afterward. While the film was being screened, I sat in my truck and drafted this newsletter in the parking lot of a public library.
Parked next to me was an elderly woman sleeping fitfully in her car. A disability sticker hung from the rearview mirror. She was hooked up to a small oxygen tank connected to a pump with LEDs that bathed her car’s interior with soft green light. Suitcases, clothes, and bags were piled in the back seat. She had parked her car under the glow of a light pole, which presumably provided her with some sense of security in a world that seemed to have forgotten her.
The Washington Post reported yesterday that the cost of rebuilding the East Wing of the White House and constructing the massive ballroom has ballooned to $900 million—all to feed Trump’s monstrous ego.
We must fix this.
Talk to you tomorrow.
Please send photos to rbhubbell@gmail.com
Lafayette, Calif., Peace&Freedom, Indivisible Resisters 8-10-26
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Richmond, VA
Creative use of a construction sign. We must ALL be prepared to stop trump’s authoritarian maneuvers.
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Tonight’s peaceful protest brought in a marked escalation of enthusiasm and positive energy from commuters. There were VERY few negative responses during the 90 minutes spent on the bridge, but they seemed to be nastier than usual. Something has shifted,
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9 August 2026 at 33rd & Killingsworth in Portland, Oregon.
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Greenville SC. Tell them Tuesday’s . This is the 11th year for this group.
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Weekly silent vigil at ICE National Data Center in Williston, Vermont
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American Tobacco Trail pedestrian bridge over I-40, Durham NC
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Signs of Blue, Woodstock, Va. We have rallied at various locations every Wednesday for the past year. This is in addition to our weekly Saturday bridge rallies, totaling 75 to date.
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Tolland Good Trouble Visibility Brigade
Tolland, Connecticut
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Recent signmaking event at our sr housing. This great sign is leaning against a walker which many of us use each Saturday morning as we wave our signs and listen to the honks. Our group, DEMOCRACY MATTERS, St Louis Park MN
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Tyranny Tuesday protest in Reno. The theme: stop ICE flights at the Reno-Tahoe Intl Airport.
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I was thrilled to see your Having Doubts feature this morning. Our IndivisibleHoCoMD has a Postcard Brigade and we have sent about 25 thousand postcards this year.
We just started a LeavingMAGA.org campaign. We have advertised that we have LeavingMAGA postcards (in an email to Rich Logis, I was told there is no copyright) for members to send to their family and friends. We have worked in an anonymity feature where we have arranged for them to be mailed from out-of-state. Your promotion may boost our campaign!
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I’m a regular on the Mountain Park Access Road, Holyoke, MA (Tuesdays, 4:30-5:30, and 4th Fridays, same time. We have a great group of regulars and have been diligent in our efforts to promote democracy!
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Weekly Dump Trump demonstration, Oakland, CA. Lots of folks thanking us as they went to the Laurel Street Fair.
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Our growing pro-democracy group, West Bay Blue Wave, based in Warwick RI, meets every Saturday for a peaceful Bridge Brigade that is seen by an estimated 17,000 motorists every week. We invite anyone who loves democracy to join us at westbaybluewave.com.
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27 members of Champlain Valley Indivisible gathered at 166 Sycamore St, in Williston, Vermont on Monday, August 10. This innocuous building, nestled among coffee shops, movie theaters, and big box stores, is the DHS/ICE “Debt Management Center”. This is one of the locations where ICE intimidates and harasses immigrants by imposing fines and seizing assets. It was recently described in the New York Times (gift article). https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/us/immigration-civil-fines-self-deportation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.1FA.YgwD.yE_2e9y4Yw5y&smid=url-share
This was our first visit to this location. Apparently ICE told their employees to work from home that day, as the parking lot - which usually has 35 - 45 cars, was empty. We plan to return.
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In front of Federal Building every week since late January 2025
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New Mexico Votes. We learned how to register people to vote but mostly I think we’re just reminding people that they have to vote. Most people are ready to go …just need some information about where to go for early voting, etc..
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Billboard at a busy intersection in Indianapolis
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