Georgia Doesn't Wait for the Odds to Change, We Change Them

Georgians have gotten used to being told what is impossible. We’ve gotten better at proving the doubters wrong.

In 2018, conventional wisdom held that a Democrat could not come close to winning the governor’s office, that a legislature drawn by politicians who rigged the maps to keep control could not change. Yet, between 2014 and 2020, Democrats added 800,000 Georgians to the process and proved otherwise.

The governor’s office remained elusive, but Democratic candidates for state House delivered eleven new Democratic seats that year, starting from just 64. Democrats picked up three state Senate seats. Organizers, volunteers and regular Georgians ready for change curated that result over years: in living rooms, church basements and parking lots outside grocery stores, long before anyone outside Georgia noticed.

Being a competitive state does not promise victory – it shows a growth curve that portends what can be with sustained effort.

This year, attention will rightly be focused on reelecting U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff and electing Keisha Lance Bottoms as governor, plus picking up statewide offices and expanding our numbers on the Public Service Commission. We can do that – but we must also remember that permanent change needs a foundation and that occurs in the state legislature.

The math is clear. For the first time since 2004, Georgia Democrats have a chance to flip a legislative chamber. Georgia Democrats hold 81 state house seats today. Winning 91 seats gives the speaker’s gavel to a Democrat and changes everything from redistricting to budget decisions that impact communities across our state.

When Stacey became minority leader in 2011, Republicans drew districts to try and secure 124 of 180 seats – 67% of the body. They never got that many, and year after year, we’ve cut their margins.

Ten seats is less than we won in 2018, and we are now in a stronger position.

We’ve won more seats in every election since then, and one more in a 2025 special election.

Look at what’s already happened since 2024. Republicans carried a state House district near Athens by 12 points that year. In a 2025 special election, that district elected a Democrat. A congressional district in northwest Georgia that Trump carried by 37 points in 2024 closed to under 12 points this past April – a 25-point swing.

In last year’s Public Service Commission races, Democratic enthusiasm dwarfed the GOP. While a PSC race is not a 1:1 correlation for a midterm election, we can learn a lot from certain signals.

Democratic margins were strong enough that every house seat we’re targeting this fall could be within reach with investment and engagement. In Columbia and Paulding counties, where Republicans routinely clear 60 percent, Georgia voters put Democrats ahead by 25 points, driven by base turnout, frustrated independents, swing voters – and even some crossover Republicans.

Republican dominance is not absolute.

We have seen changes in who is voting and why, and GOP missteps will only continue to compound. These markers are not absolute proof points, but they are indicators of what is possible.

Our presidential ticket carried five of our most competitive targets in 2024, even as Georgia itself slipped from our column by two points. Beth Fuller is running in one of those districts, where Kamala Harris won 53 percent, while our legislative candidate managed 48 percent. Farooq Mughal is running in another, decided by less than two points, closer than almost any race on the map.

Several other targets have moved double digits toward us since 2016. A four to six point improvement on 2024 closes most of what remains, and a midterm electorate tends to close gaps like that on its own.

Georgia has changed too.

People of color now make up a majority of Georgians, and in the South, race is the strongest predictor of political leanings.

Identity does not guarantee how a person will vote; but we know that communities look for those with shared lived experiences. In Georgia, that has portended a shift from reliably red to consistently competitive. While we must continue to make inroads in rural areas, the growth in racial diversity has been concentrated in suburban counties surrounding Atlanta, where most of this year’s competitive districts sit.

Republicans know this too. It’s why they keep redrawing the voting maps instead of letting the lines catch up to the people living inside them. They aren’t just cynical – they are scared.

That’s why this year, Republicans tried to force a special session to redraw Georgia’s maps again. Except, they were met with nearly 500 protestors who showed up at the Capitol on day one – and they backed down.

No matter how Republicans shift lines on a map, they know the ground keeps shifting beneath it – they can see what’s coming for them in November.

We have never believed in guarantees. Democrats must defend seats that are not easy to hold, including districts where our presidential ticket came up short even as our legislative candidates outperformed it. Some longtime Republican incumbents have survived wave elections before. They could again.

But listen to what voters in these districts are saying. They are worried about what it costs to keep the lights on, to see a doctor, to afford the rent or mortgage, and to send a child to a school with enough teachers and enough books.

They care about being fired for who they love, being denied reproductive choice at the risk of their lives, or being detained by ICE because of the color of their skin. Kitchen tables and community conclaves in Georgia have been trending in one direction for a decade, in numbers that get harder for Republican politicians to explain away.

In 2019, Fair Fight Action was created to do this work: door by door, seat by seat, cycle by cycle. We have watched Georgia trend blue because people keep showing up and engaging, even after the votes are counted.

In 2024, SpeakUP PAC joined the fight to invest in organizations and campaigns that see what’s possible. From closing vote share gaps in rural counties to supporting turnout in the metro, we see opportunity and show up.

Forecasts don’t win legislative races.

Candidates willing to run in places the political pundits have written off do, with the support of volunteers willing to knock on people’s doors that pollsters assume already have their minds made up. Every district on this year’s target list has a candidate ready to make that case.

Georgia has never asked permission to become more competitive. It has simply kept becoming so, one election at a time, while people elsewhere argued about probabilities.

We build the odds, by doing the work piece by piece, until the results predicted by the experts look nothing like the outcome we deliver in November.

Stacey Abrams, a former Georgia House of Representatives minority leader, is an author, producer and founder of Fair Fight Action, Fair Count and the Southern Economic Advancement Project.

Lauren Groh-Wargo is chief executive officer of Fair Fight Action, a Georgia-based voting rights advocacy organization, and a political strategist who managed Stacey Abrams’ campaigns for Georgia governor.

Paid for by Fair Fight, www.FairFight.com, not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.