Welcome to Home & Away. I will keep this edition short as July is about to end and we all want to get on with enjoying (as much as we can) the second half of summer.
The Beat Goes On
As I believe I pointed out some months ago, it only takes one (in this case, the United States) to start a war, but it takes two (or, in the current context, three, if you include Israel in addition to Iran) to end it.
The United States is learning this the hard way. Donald Trump may be more than ready to end the war – he seems to have finally embraced the notion that when you find yourself in a hole, the best thing to do is to stop digging – but Tehran, apparently, is not ready to settle. To the contrary, Iran has renewed attacks on U.S. bases and neighboring states.
Iran’s new leaders seemingly believe they are better able to absorb American military bombardment than the United States is able to withstand higher prices associated with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and now the Bab el-Mandeb. Iran may also see America’s dwindling supply of critical munitions and conclude that the United States will be unable to continue these strikes for much longer.
As a result, Iran seems to be in no rush to enter a ceasefire accord or to implement an MOU that was deservedly criticized as being overly generous toward Tehran. Presumably, some in Iran think an even sweeter deal will be theirs if they just hang tough for long enough.
Whatever Iran’s motives – and it is admittedly difficult to know who and what we mean by “Iran” when it involves their decision-making and leadership these days, as it is quite possible there is no one with the authority to impose a difficult decision – what comes to mind is an old line attributed to former Secretary of Defense (not War) Harold Brown. When asked about Soviet nuclear modernization efforts, Brown remarked, “When we build, they build; when we cut, they build.” Or in the current context, when we attack Iran, it attacks, and when we pause, it attacks.
In response, the United States has resumed bombing Iranian military and industrial sites. It is hard to see why this approach would work now when it hasn’t worked over the past five months. The one military action that could possibly force Iran’s hand and even get it to capitulate – attacking the energy infrastructure on which its economy rests – risks triggering an Iranian assault on the energy and water infrastructure of its neighbors. Were this to happen, what has already been a crisis would morph overnight into a global calamity. So far, both sides have largely held off doing so, a modern Middle East version of the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine that kept nuclear weapons on the sidelines and helped to keep the peace between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
So what to do? The best way to increase Iran’s incentive to reach a ceasefire is to deny it the ability to use the Strait of Hormuz and to increase sanctions against tankers carrying Iranian oil and against their insurers. Washington should also develop alternatives to the Strait and improve the defenses of Gulf states against Iranian drone and missile attacks. None of this promises a quick fix, but Iran’s economy is its Achilles’ heel, and ramping up pressure on it offers the best approach to persuading Iran’s leaders that a reopening of the Strait and accepting a ceasefire are in the country’s interests. This could take some time, and it may require accepting arrangements for the Strait that give Iran more authority than we would like, but that is likely to be the price to be paid for a ceasefire and the free flow of energy and other shipping.
Fauci’s Fall
I, for one, am saddened by the latest chapter in the Anthony Fauci saga. He is someone I have long respected, a dedicated public servant and scientist who served the American people with considerable distinction throughout his long career. But watching him repeatedly invoke the Fifth Amendment before Congress (no matter how biased many of the senators appeared to be in what was more of a show trial than a hearing) was dispiriting. His diaries were often an exercise in vapid self-congratulation.
Most important, Fauci continues to reject what many believe to be the most persuasive explanation for how Covid-19 materialized, namely, that it originated in a poorly run Chinese laboratory in Wuhan. We may never know the truth given the extensive Chinese cover-up and clean-up, but it is hard to dismiss the possibility that Fauci’s acceptance of the “wet market” explanation stems in no small part from his reported role in approving funding for risky experiments carried out at the Chinese lab. His testimony, or lack of it, did him no favors here.
I don’t know what will become of Fauci. But I do know that the controversy surrounding him will feed hostility toward experts and elites that, for all their flaws and errors, are still very much needed by us all. And, sadly, this week’s hearing will feed opposition to science and to those advocating for steps meant to head off or contain the current Ebola outbreak or the next global pandemic. Fauci’s fall will be our collective fall.
The Sporting Life
There is a lot to report on, from LeBron James taking his aging talents to Philadelphia to the emergence of a new phenom on the PGA Tour, one Jackson Koivun. Most important, NFL training camps are now open, and I am feeling it. My long underachieving Giants are playoff bound. You heard it (again) here.
I am also (foolishly) upbeat about my golf game. Or to borrow from the previous paragraph, I am feeling it. I am hitting my drives as far and as straight as I ever have, which admittedly isn’t saying all that much. And my short game is pretty good. Just sayin’.
What I do know is that I am now old enough to qualify for the super senior tour if only there were one. The fifty-year-old qualification for the senior tour is too low. “Geriatric Golf,” I am thinking of calling it. The prospect of shooting my age is improving as I just had a milestone birthday. But it is far from certain I will accomplish this feat, as there is the uncertainty over whether my abilities will diminish faster than my age increases. One of the not-so-great questions of our time.
As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away.
Friday, July 24: Alternate Shots Episode 33.
Tuesday, July 28: Morning Joe on Zelensky White House Visit.
Tuesday, July 28: Katie Couric on Lindsey Graham, Iran, Russia-Ukraine.
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