Plane Spoken (August 17, 2026)

Welcome to Home & Away. I will start with the Air Force One story, the most important dimension of which, from a policy perspective, is whether the United States should be in the business of targeting or assassinating leaders of other countries. I would suggest not. As we have seen with Iran, “succeeding” doesn’t necessarily translate into a better outcome. Problematic officials can be replaced by even more problematic officials. What is more, the successor leadership is likely to be inclined to make the United States pay for what it has done. This, on top of the fact that they are new to their positions, makes it unlikely they will have the standing to negotiate and agree to compromises. Diplomacy, including war termination, thus becomes even more difficult.

Another downside is suggested above, namely, that one way of making the United States pay for what it has done is to retaliate in kind. We are among the most open societies, and this reality, coupled with modern drone and biotechnology, makes our leaders particularly vulnerable to assassination attempts carried out by our adversaries. We should not think we are the only ones who can play this dangerous game.

All of which brings us to the reported intelligence that Iran was planning to assassinate President Trump by shooting down Air Force One. Maybe. But it was also reported that U.S. intelligence agencies had little confidence in the intelligence, reportedly supplied by Israel, which obviously raises any number of questions, including whether Iran would have risked going down this path not knowing what price it would pay had it succeeded.

Then there is the juicy aspect: the president, at the Secret Service’s urging, decided to step off Air Force One in Turkey and board a catering van to another plane. The most interesting aspect was who he chose to take with him – Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino, the always-by-his-side Truth Social accomplice Natalie Harp, and his former valet and now Director of Oval Office Operations Walt Nauta – and who was relegated to what had become the at-risk decoy plane. The latter list included Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, and Stephen Miller. This gives a whole new dimension to the notion that everyone who serves the president is expendable. It must have made for an interesting ride back after the president reboarded the plane in the UK.

Strait Talk

As for the core Iran conflict, it continues at a distinctly low boil. The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed. Little Iranian shipping gets through owing to the U.S. blockade; little non-Iranian shipping gets through thanks to Iranian threats, punctuated every now and then by an attack that makes the threats credible and discourages transit.

We are where we have been for some time now. As John Ellis and I discussed on the most recent edition (number 35, as it turns out) of America’s fastest-growing podcast, “Alternate Shots,” there is a decidedly “Groundhog Day” quality to all this. The question remains who is better positioned to endure the costs of the Strait’s continued closure.

I am glad to see the Trump administration has pivoted away from military force, the limits of which have been clear for some time, and toward economic pressure. But coercion of any sort leaves the initiative with the object of the pressure, i.e., Iran. My sense is that Iran is willing and able to endure considerable economic pain for some time, as it has lived with such pain for a long time.

The bigger question is Trump’s willingness to pay the economic and political price of higher prices as we approach the midterms. There is, of course, the chance he will back down, as he has so often in his second term. But he may not care all that much about Republicans losing the House or even the Senate, figuring he can dominate Washington by issuing executive orders, all while ignoring subpoenas. Or, most troubling, he may be preparing to send ICE agents and troops into the streets under some emergency pretext and thereby tilt the playing field so much that Republicans “win” the midterms. Yet another scenario (suggested by Judge Michael Luttig) is one where the current Republican-controlled House refuses to seat newly elected Democrats, claiming their midterm victories were the result of “fraud.” We will know in ten weeks.

Speaking of Trump, it was only days ago that he announced a changed policy of “low-keying” the crisis. He continues to do so in the sense of opting for economic over military pressure, but the policy hasn’t extended to his rhetoric. First, he boasted that the United States controlled the Strait when it was obvious it did not. Then he announced, “After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States.” This is not just preposterous but counterproductive, as it is at odds with long-standing U.S. policy that insists the Strait is an international waterway open to all. After all, how can we oppose Iran claiming ownership and control of the Strait if we claim it ourselves? Is there no one in this White House who has this president’s ear and thinks even one move ahead? It is one thing not to play chess; it is something else not to even play checkers.

Vexed

Then there was the executive order on vaccinations. There is no scientific or medical basis for the decision to pare back child vaccine recommendations from 17 to 11 or to split the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine into three separate shots, something that will require manufacturers to retool and parents and children to make additional trips to see their doctors. This promises to become part of the costly legacy of this presidency.

I am normally reluctant to ascribe motives, but it is difficult to reach any conclusion other than that this was politically motivated, a way to assuage some of the MAGA base whose fealty has been weakened by the refusal to come clean on Epstein and by initiating what looks to be an endless war of choice. All this at a time when the incidence of measles is at a thirty-year high, thanks in no small part to vaccine skepticism being fanned by the Secretary of Health and Human Services.

A Nation of Strangers

I want to draw attention to an important piece I saw in The New York Times the other day. Titled “America Is Atomizing,” the essay by Jesse McKinley puts forward the view that American society is best understood as a large number of individuals and small clusters of people that come and go, forming political and ideological tribes at a rapid clip. This is fundamentally different from polarization, which suggests two established camps. Both are problematic, although in different ways.

There is an interesting global parallel to what is going on here. The Cold War was an example of polarization; indeed, the world was bipolar. Today’s world is decidedly messier and more decentralized. The number of poles is increasing by the day with the emergence of more autonomous actors, from middle powers and technology companies to terrorists and NGOs able to have impact alongside the major powers. The result promises to be a marked decline in global order and stability.

Any number of factors explain what is happening inside the United States. Social media and smartphones are part of the explanation. Covid-19 sharply increased our distance from one another. The gig economy offers little in the way of relationships with co-workers at an office. De Tocqueville would hardly recognize today’s America. What is near certain is that this trend will promote alienation, conspiracy theories, and radical sects, and will impede the re-establishment of constructive, functional politics, which seems more remote than ever.

Reverse Pivot

A reverse pivot is the tendency of some struggling golfers to get their weight transfer wrong. Rather than shift backward during the initial phase of the backswing and forward during the swing itself, some golfers do just the opposite. The results are what you might expect.

I raise this here and now because, for several presidencies, the declared policy of the United States has been to pivot to Asia, to focus greater attention and resources there in an effort to counter the rise of China and, to a lesser extent, North Korea. What we are getting instead is a reverse pivot.

For six months, there has been a steady shift in military assets from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, the most recent being the transfer of the last remaining U.S. aircraft carrier in the Far East to the Middle East. Adding to the trend, armaments and munitions meant in part to support friends and allies in Asia are being used in the war against Iran far faster than they can be replaced.

To this trend we can add President Trump’s order to the Pentagon to “substantially reduce” joint military exercises with South Korea. Purportedly, Trump’s instruction was driven by frustration that Seoul was unwilling to do more to support the war with Iran—a war that is costing it dearly given its dependence on oil and gas from the Middle East.

Making matters worse was Trump’s explanation (on social media, of course) that the exercise wasn’t worth the cost and that it sent an “inappropriate signal” to North Korea. He then went on to boast about his “very good relationship” with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un despite the absence of evidence that Trump’s first-term courtship of Kim led to anything positive.

It is unclear whether the exercise with South Korea will go on as planned or at a reduced level. Either way, the damage has been done. This statement by the president, coming as it does on the heels of unilateral American tariffs, a delayed arms sale to Taiwan, and an inability to defend U.S. partners in the Middle East, will only encourage North Korea and China to become even more adventurous—and lead U.S. allies either to become more self-reliant, i.e., consider developing nuclear weapons of their own, or to accommodate China.

The Sporting Life

The NFL preseason is underway, and my Giants are off to what can charitably be described as a slow start. The good news is that these games don’t count and are meant to reveal what needs to be fixed. Saturday’s game against Minnesota achieved that goal and then some.

Then there’s the WNBA. I find it all head-scratching. The best thing the league has going for it is the Indiana Fever. Yet it allows two of its best players, Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham, to be aggressively fouled with little or no cost to those going after them, which only encourages more of the same, weakening the quality of the basketball and threatening serious injury in the process. Commissioner Cathy Engelbert seems clueless; the officials, incompetent or worse. All I know is that the WNBA is putting at risk its best chance of breaking through.

Last, and most assuredly least, I want to give an update on my golf. The other day I had the chance to play at Winged Foot, on its West Course. It has been the venue for six U.S. Opens over the decades and is nothing less than majestic. I played well for 13 holes, producing a mix of bogeys, pars, and a birdie. But unfortunately, golf involves 18 holes, and I lost my swing for 5 of them (11-15), which resulted in several double bogeys. Why the wheels came off and then came back on is a mystery. But then golf is a mystery.

To round out this golf report, I need to add that I played Winged Foot with Chris Grisanti, my friend, neighbor, investing guru, and, most important, chairman of the co-op board where we dwell. Chris carded an eagle (on a par 4, no less) along the way, for which he gets a well-deserved shout-out that he is too modest to give himself.

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Wednesday, August 12: Morning Joe on Iran.

Saturday, August 15: Alternate Shots Episode 35.