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In this Weekly Wrap released August 14, 2026, I cover why economic pressure alone won't work on Iran, why I'm staying long despite the doom-and-gloom chatter, and why the entire AI trade now hinges on two companies that lose billions of dollars a quarter. I also dig into this week's infrastructure earnings, and what Netflix, Circle, and Bitcoin can teach us about which disruptors win and which lose.
After Monday’s interview with Jason Trennert and Chris Verrone of Strategas on Monday August 17th, both the Wrap and our interview series are taking a two-week break. The Wrap resumes Friday, September 4th and on Monday, September 7th we do a deep dive into property and casualty insurance with Ryan Tunis of Cantor. Premium Wednesday episodes will continue uninterrupted, and right after Labor Day I’ll be dropping a two-part masterclass on how to analyze bank accounting and functionality. I talk a lot about hidden data which if discovered is revealing. This masterclass helps to understand the data released by banks in their quarterly earnings. The earnings reports over time will start to reveal the role banks play in financing private credit and the AI buildout.
Negotiations with Iran broke down this week, and President Trump announced he won’t resume bombing but will instead lean on economic pressure. Having just interviewed Middle East expert Stephen Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations on our Premium feed, I don’t think that strategy is going to work. The Iranian regime simply doesn’t care how much its own population suffers. The only real priority is its own survival. I expect this conflict to drag on for quite a while, but as long as the bombing doesn’t restart, I think markets can continue to grind higher.
The market is sitting at all-time highs, with the S&P up 13% and the Nasdaq up 14% on the year, even as plenty of commentators believe a crash is imminent. I too got cautious a few months ago and trimmed some positions, but I still think a full doom-and-gloom call is premature. Going into the Global Financial Crisis,
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