Morning Coffee - Mar. 28, 2025

How will Toronto Raptors be impacted by the struggling Canadian dollar? - The Athletic
The Raptors are already committed to spending a lot on players next year. They owe more than $175 million (U.S. dollars) to the 10 players on guaranteed contracts for 2025-26. That would leave them about $12.5 million to get their roster to the minimum of 14 while staying below the luxury tax — which the Raptors have paid just once in the last 22 years, after the 2018-19 season, when they won the NBA championship.

If the Raptors move up in the draft lottery, it would be functionally impossible for them to retain each of the eight players they have on non-minimum deals (Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter), fill out their roster and stay below the tax threshold. If they stay in their spot or move down, it will still be tight, and they would have to fill out their roster using only minimum contracts to achieve that goal.

There is a basketball case to pay the tax for a season, especially if the Raptors believe they can get below the threshold in 2026-27. However, the economic case is dicier given the state of the dollar. The Raptors’ share of the league’s new 11-year, $76-billion TV deal comes in U.S. dollars, which is helpful. In addition, the Raptors’ share of luxury tax payments that come from tax-paying teams comes in U.S. dollars.

Still, the Raptors pull in plenty of revenue in Canadian dollars. Given the volatility of the dollar and the unpredictability of Trump’s impact on Canada’s relationship with the United States (and the financial repercussions that could have), the Raptors and all Canadian teams will want to lock in as much controlled revenue as possible — season tickets, suite sales and more, Tilliss said. Season ticket renewals went out about a month ago at an average annual increase of two percent, per an MLSE spokesperson. Season-ticket holders have until the end of the month to opt out.

Last year, near the end of a 25-win season, the Raptors had a four-percent raise. This year’s Raptors aren’t going to finish much better.

“I don’t remember (that) a disadvantage with the American dollar ever played a role with ticket prices,” Peddie said. “But (MLSE) expected us to find profit growth every year, so we did look at ticket prices. But, of course, there was a correlation (between winning and ticket prices). You’re not too crazy of doing it, or whether we should do it at all, if your team is underperforming. We were mindful of that.”

One thing Canadian teams, including the Raptors, do to guard against currency unpredictability is hedge against the volatility of the Canadian dollar, most commonly with futures contracts — agreeing to buy a product or currency for a pre-set price on a specific date in the future.

“Sometimes you win on that and sometimes you lose on that, but at least you have price protection,” Anselmi said. “You’ve got certainty and you know what the future holds. Aside from that, it’s really about pain management with the business as much as you can.”

There is good news, or at least news that isn’t necessarily bad. The dollar’s value has been tied to tariff threats. If — a big if, obviously — those threats go away or fade into the background, there is no reason the value of the Canadian dollar couldn’t stabilize or even rise.

Additionally, Frances Donald, a senior vice-president and chief economist at RBC, noted that experiential spending has grown since the pandemic.

“That isn’t something that’s likely to dissipate soon,” Donald said.

Donald noted that right now, faith in the Canadian economy is low, meaning people are less likely to spend on discretionary (non-essential) items. That isn’t guaranteed to continue.

“Businesses need to plan for the downside risks — the things that could go wrong — but they also need to plan for the things that can go right,” Donald said. “Despite all of the challenges that Canada is currently facing, a lot of things can still go right.”

In that way, the Raptors monitoring the volatility of the Canadian dollar seems similar to their fans monitoring them.

After Cooper Flagg at No. 1, there’s no clear cut order to the 2025 NBA draf - Toronto Star
Make no mistake, Cooper Flagg is the first overall pick; it would take some crazy celestial intervention to change that. But the one thing that keeps coming up in conversations with Raptors officials, scouts and deep thinkers around the league is that there is no semblance of clarity after that.

Sure, there are some consistent names that follow Flagg — they’re all over the mock drafts these days — but to think the Raptors have set their pecking order, or wish list, is dead wrong.

They know that the guy they might like at, say, No. 3 could be No. 8 on someone else’s list. Someone’s No. 4 might be No. 2, No. 5 could be No. 2.

“No clarity, not even close,” was how one Eastern Conference official put it.

It’s left the Raptors to continue drilling down on a group of possibilities and try to envision how each player would fit with what they have, and what style they expect to play.

And that’s where a problem is emerging with a large part of the group under consideration after Flagg.

The Raptors have a plethora of wings right now (we’ll count RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram and some combination of Ja’Kobe Walter, Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, even Jonathan Mogbo, Jamison Battle and A.J. Lawson) and there seem to be a lot of six-foot-four to six-foot-seven swingmen in that group. Do they need another? Not really.

And if you look down the draft guesses and see ball handlers of promise, does it make any sense for a team that’s got Immanuel Quickley and Jamal Shead and sees — rightly or wrongly — Scottie Barnes as a legitimate point guard to use a high lottery pick on a point guard? No.

So, with the combination of no clear-cut order after No. 1 and an existing roster that’s full of potential at the draft positions that seem so stocked, what are the Raptors to do?

They can look for someone who fits, someone who doesn’t need the ball and can move without it. They can look for some size, and there’s always room for extra shooting. They can be choosy, which is good because there’s going to be any number of choices at their disposal.

Toronto puts on defensive masterclass as they blow out Brooklyn - Raptors Republic
For the better part of the season Toronto has been ranked amongst the top of the league defensively. Head Coach Darko Rajakovic’s defensive scheme prioritizes on ball pressure, which by proxy forces a lot of movement from his players on that end, and safe to say it seems like the team has bought in for most of the season. Over the full season, the Toronto Raptors sit at 16th in defensive rating, which is much higher than a likely lottery team has any business being at.

The Brooklyn Nets did not really have anyone who could consistently attack this defense successfully, and with Toronto’s overwhelming size making every bucket an arduous task, Brooklyn simply could not stay in the game.

Toronto held Brooklyn to under 20 points in the first quarter, and to 30 percent shooting from the field. Scottie Barnes was his usual swiss army knife self on the defensive end, helping out at the rim, showing off his poise at the point-of-attack, and just really leading these defensive possessions for Toronto. Barnes’s ability to cover plenty of ground and still be in a position to help shined all night en route to Toronto’s blowout victory.

Orlando Robinson had a big night in his own right, scoring 23 points on 71 percent shooting. Robinson did not do anything too fancy on the way to his big scoring night, he just did the prototypical big man stuff, kept it simple, and finished reliably all night. He put himself in good position on his teammates drives, and waited in the dunker’s spot for them to draw the defense and open it up for him to finish. He slipped plenty of his screens, looking to be found on the roll for easy scoring opportunities. Robinson’s size and length also provided issues for Brooklyn, as he warded off would-be finishers at the rim.

Jonathan Mogbo had a strong game last night finishing with 16 points, 12 of which came in the first half. Mogbo’s offense this season has been a fluctuating thing, which is to be expected from a rookie, but last night he looked pretty comfortable and poised on that end. His touch specifically is what looked a bit more polished, finishing with hook shots over defenders multiple times. Mogbo’s defense also looked sharp as well, his versatility on that end provided yet another hurdle that Brooklyn failed to clear. Mogbo’s defense is something that will likely make his NBA career, and last night he showed why.

This was Toronto’s largest margin of victory this season and although they didn’t shoot the ball extremely well as a team, it was their defense that empowered this blowout victory.

Are Toronto Raptors or Charlotte Hornets in better long-term spot? - Toronto Sun
For a franchise that has done this poorly, the cap situation should be a lot rosier. Ball makes $35 million US this season and that number will rise for four more years until it hits $46.3 million.

Bridges makes too much, while Jusuf Nurkic is owed $19.375 million next year and is nearly unplayable at this point.

There aren’t many pathways to improving significantly anytime soon either, short of landing Flagg or Dylan Harper in the draft. The team will likely stink next year, too, giving itself a great shot at a high pick in what is expected to be an equally impressive draft crop.

Meanwhile, Toronto, after trading for and extending Ingram, is in a sub-optimal spot cap-wise.

With the mega Barnes extension kicking in and Quickley highly paid, decisions will need to be made either next year or after that on the likes of Barrett and Ochai Agbaji.

Poeltl also will need a new deal in a year, so new sole owners Rogers will be asked to pay the luxury tax (something MLSE has only done twice ever) for a group nobody expects to be a legitimate contender.

ADVANTAGE: Charlotte, with lottery luck this year and/or next OR Toronto if Hornets don’t land in Top 2 this year.

We have to lean Toronto, but ask us again after the lottery in May and the answer might be different.

Flagg or Harper (even though its unclear if he’d work with Ball, given both are lead dogs who need the ball at almost all times) would change things since either are seen as better foundational pieces than anyone on either roster right now.

Should Charlotte land one of those two players, the franchise would be in a far different spot (we’d lean Toronto if the pick ends up being Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe or anyone else).

At least Toronto will have a competent roster ready to make the playoffs and even give a team a scare in the first round.

It sucks being in the middle with no hope of winning a championship, but the Raptors would argue they are consistently adding talent and can make deals later to bring in the missing piece (ie. a player as good or better than Barnes, something they need to escape pretender status).

905’s loss to the Nets in final home game representative of their season - Raptors Republic
Right from the 11 a.m. tip, the 905’s early offensive actions often failed to materialize as intended. Instead, they would have to reset and rely on individuals to create shots from a standstill. Eugene Omoruyi pumped and drove to the rim and finished an entry lob in transition. The Rexdale-raised forward drew bodies on a post-up before finding Jared Rhoden in the weakside corner for an open triple.

Even when their actions produced the desired outcome, they didn’t pan out. The 905 shorted the pick n’ roll – Kennedy Chandler to Quincy Guerrier to Omoruyi in the paint – but his attempt at taking the ball up was nullified as he gathered by Nets two-way player Tosan Evbuomwan. Omoruyi finished just shy of a 30-point triple-double, with 29 points on 12-of-27 shooting, along with nine rebounds and nine assists.

Meanwhile the Nets top players also took their fair share of tough shots, but made more of them. Scott isolated on the baseline late in the clock and stuck a tough turnaround fade. Killian Hayes splashed a 3 with Rhoden’s hand in his face. The former NBA guard was calm and controlled, slowing down in semi-transition to hit a fading pull-up middy in the lane. Hayes finished with 20 points, five rebounds, four assists, and three stocks.

Rhoden took the Hayes assignment and got beat early, as the French guard hit him with a casual hang dribble and waltzed by the 905’s best point-of-attack defender to the rim. Later the two G League stars traded steals, with Rhoden picking Hayes’ pocket, and then Hayes immediately returning the favour in transition going the other way. As the game progressed Rhoden got acclimated to Hayes’ measured and crafty drives and kept him in front more. That was until Hayes left the game near the end of the third quarter after rolling his ankle and did not return.

But, overall, the 905 provided little resistance both in their transition defence and when the Nets were proactive inbounding and running out quick off makes. The result was numerous drives that were picked up late and got deeper than they should have.

There was inattention from both teams, as Lacey James hesitated to move the ball to open teammates off a rebound. Yet, the Nets transition defence failed to pick up the middle and Rhoden took James’ late pass to the dunker spot up for a flush.