Morning Coffee - Apr. 10, 2025

Quick Reaction: Hornets 96, Raptors 126 - Raptors Republic
J. Mogbo - A+

38 MIN, 17 PTS, 10 REB, 11 AST, 3 STL, 7-16 FG, 1-5 3FG, 2-2 FT, 0 BLK, 4 TO, 20 +/-

First career triple-double! He made strong connective passes, cleaned the glass, and was a wall of motion on defence. Threw down a couple big dunks including a monster rim-rocker in the third that drew Battle’s classic crazy-faced celebration on the bench. Showed hesitation taking an open 3 from top of the floor to start the game, but then didn’t hesitate to fire later. Was way off on the first few but eventually got one to go down. Mogbo has been attempting much less 3s lately after going through a stretch mid-season where he got a decent amount up between the Raptors and the 905. Glad to see him get some up in game-action while there is still time to experiment. Mogbo developing a passable jumper would be a major boon to the Raptors’ attempt to turn him into a tenable rotation wing.

Is this the end for Chris Boucher as a Raptor? - Sportsnet
The broad strokes are this, according to multiple sources: there is mutual interest in having Boucher return for his eighth season in Toronto. Even at 32, he showed no signs of slowing down or curbing his all-in style of play this year. He was Toronto’s leading bench scorer at 10 points a game and had one of his better shooting seasons, converting at 36.3 per cent from three-point range on nearly four attempts a game. Among Raptors regulars, his +4.9 net rating was second only to Jakob Poeltl’s +7.1.

There was some thought the Raptors would trade Boucher or make him available as a buyout candidate, but those opportunities never materialized.

Boucher was effective enough this season than rather than find ways to play him down the stretch, Toronto elected to simply sit him for what likely will be the final 23 games of the regular season.

The arrangement has been transparent – Rajakovic and Boucher have had wide open lines of communication dating back to last summer and the bonds between Boucher’s camp and the front office have been well-established over the years – but that doesn’t mean it’s been easy for the high-flying big man to sit out for so long.

“Obviously it’s not ideal, but it’s the business. I know how things go by now,” Boucher told me “I’m trying to stay positive with how my life is and see the positive stuff, and I think I had a great year, too. I think that helps, knowing that I’m growing and being the player and the person that I want to be, so I take those wins. The season went by pretty quick, so I’ll enjoy the last few games and see what happens.”

But there are more variables around Boucher’s future with the Raptors following the acquisition of Brandon Ingram at the trade deadline, and the three-year, $120-million extension he signed after that.

With Ingram’s deal on the books, the Raptors have little wiggle room financially if they are hoping to stay under the luxury tax next season. They have $177.3 million committed to 11 players and with the luxury tax projected to land at $187.9 million, it leaves $12.4 million to sign four more players, including the Raptors' draft picks. In that scenario, Boucher getting anything close to his current three-year, $35.2-million deal seems very unlikely. Whether he can get anything above the veteran minimum could depend on who the Raptors draft and in what position. The first-year salary for the No. 1 overall pick can be as much as $13.8 million, whereas if the Raptors pick in the ninth spot the cap hit is more likely to be $6.33 million. Somewhere in that gap could leave room for Boucher’s deal.

In any case, heading into a tight free agent market, Boucher being signed by the Raptors – who hold his Bird rights – or him being included in a sign-and-trade remain his most likely paths to signing for more than the veteran minimum next season.

“There’s conversations that have been made and for now it’s about finishing the year,“ said Boucher. “Obviously I have a great relationship with the Raptors, so we’ll wait to see what the conversation is going to be in the summer.”

'Played cards I've been dealt,' Raptors' Boucher reflects ahead of likely end of tenure - Toronto Sun
Boucher bridged the gap between the Kawhi Leonard year, the last of Kyle Lowry’s time here, to the rise of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Anunoby, to the passing of the torch to Scottie Barnes.

“It went by fast. I think you realize the team that was there before and the team that’s hear now, the changes and all, I’ve been blessed to be able to be here and watch it all happen,” Boucher told Postmedia.

“I think it’s a really good experience to be in that circle and to see how big the Raptors became.”

Boucher, 32, will become a free agent this summer and believes he’s shown he can help at team in a variety of ways

He just averaged 10 points a game, the second-most of his career, in only 17.6 minutes, and hit 36% of his three-point attempts.

“I think it was a great year. Definitely one of my best years, just in general, being a vet, kind of learning with the young guys trying to teach, being consistent, just carving a pretty good role,” he said.

“I think I was pretty much efficient and willing to bring wins and my all to the team. So we’re pretty happy about that. I think, I’ve adjusted to everything that was thrown at me and played the cards that I’ve been dealt. At this point now we’re just hoping for to be able to play more years and obviously I think the best thing I can do now is get better at the little things,” Boucher said.

Head coach Darko Rajakovic’s explanation for not giving Boucher one more chance to get in front of the home fans Wednesday was that it would put him in a “tough place” trying to play after missing so much time. He said the two had discussed the situation beforehand and throughout the year he has labelled Boucher, who often stepped in and had monster outings after rarely playing previously as the “ultimate professional.”

“I think it’s a really good experience to be in that circle and to see how big the Raptors became.”

Boucher, 32, will become a free agent this summer and believes he’s shown he can help at team in a variety of ways

He just averaged 10 points a game, the second-most of his career, in only 17.6 minutes, and hit 36% of his three-point attempts.

“I think it was a great year. Definitely one of my best years, just in general, being a vet, kind of learning with the young guys trying to teach, being consistent, just carving a pretty good role,” he said.

“I think I was pretty much efficient and willing to bring wins and my all to the team. So we’re pretty happy about that. I think, I’ve adjusted to everything that was thrown at me and played the cards that I’ve been dealt. At this point now we’re just hoping for to be able to play more years and obviously I think the best thing I can do now is get better at the little things,” Boucher said.

Head coach Darko Rajakovic’s explanation for not giving Boucher one more chance to get in front of the home fans Wednesday was that it would put him in a “tough place” trying to play after missing so much time. He said the two had discussed the situation beforehand and throughout the year he has labelled Boucher, who often stepped in and had monster outings after rarely playing previously as the “ultimate professional.”

It’s the moments that matter, not the results. But Raptors end home schedule with a win anyway - Toronto Star
“(We’re) always looking at the player and how can he expand his box,” Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic was explaining this week.

“Like, what are the things that are realistic for the player that he can potentially start doing in the future and really invest in that.”

That’s how Rajakovic and his staff have approached the last month or so of the season, with the Raptors long destined for next month’s draft lottery.

They have rested some veterans every night for weeks, or pulled them in the last few minutes of games, all in search of the capabilities of the team’s youngest players.

It’s not like they’re going to reinvent what they have, it’s maybe adding a wrinkle they might use some time.

“The last couple of games we used Ja’Kobe at point guard,” Rajakovic said of Walter, who is a wing first and foremost and who sat out Thursday’s game with a hip issue.

“It doesn’t mean that he’s going to be going to be a point guard, but it’s for him to feel more comfortable, to bring the ball up the floor, to have one or two plays in his mind he can call up and get us organized. I think it’s a worthwhile investing in.”

Walter notwithstanding, the Raptors stayed true to the idea of letting young players spread their wings when they’re on the court.

In finishing the home portion of their season with an easy 126-96 win over the Charlotte Hornets, the Raptors rested Poeltl and Jamal Shead, were without the injured Walter, Gradey Dick and Brandon Ingram and held Immanuel Quickley, Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett to under 30 minutes of playing time.

Mogbo recorded the first triple-double of his rookie year with 17 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds to lead Toronto.

AJ Lawson saw some minutes as the de facto point guard, Mogbo split time taking threes and working in the paint and Jared Rhoden set up the offence on the odd possession.

None of them are going to be in those positions in any game that really matters anything but if it expands their skill sets even a bit, Rajakovic says it’s worth it.

Raptors swat Hornets in final home game of the season - Raptors Republic
Although Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley were active for this game, this was a very light night for them, only recording 20, 14, and 14 minutes respectively. Toronto was even without their shing rookies in Jamal Shead and Ja’Kobe Walter, players who would have definitely taken advantage of the bump in minutes tonight. Even with all of these players sidelined for the Toronto Raptors, they had a bench full of players looking to make a name for themselves and hungry for the opportunity.

Jared Rhoden, a third-year guard trying to find his footing in this league, finished the game with 23 points and 4 assists. Rhoden’s drives looked strong, he was no stranger to sprinting out in transition for easy looks, and his jump shot was also confident as he shot 3/5 from three. His trigger was quick, and even the smallest bit of space led to him firing up the ball and more often than not it dropped. Rhoden is still trying to find his home in the NBA and nights like last night are important in order for him to achieve that goal.

Jonathan Mogbo had a wondrous night as well as he recorded the first triple double of his career and the first triple double for a rookie this season. Mogbo did his usual stuff of defending the ball with effort and tenacity, often being a roadblock for any Hornet who dared to patrol into the paint. But last night, Mogbo’s passing is what shined the most. He did some playmaking from a standstill, finding cutters on their way to the basket, he even had a nice tight window pass to AJ Lawson for an open layup. Mogbo’s passing was also impactful in transition, as he would push the ball with vigor on the fastbreak and time the passes to his teammates on the break very well.

The trio of Barnes Barrett and Quickley, affectionately named “BBQ” were the ones who gave Toronto the lead that they wound up never giving up and eventually expanding on. When the starters entered the game as the first half was coming to a close, Toronto was able to get some separation. Barnes knocked down some triples, a welcome sight for the young Raptors star. Then Quickley hit a couple of bombs which extended Toronto’s lead to twelve and forced Charlotte to call a timeout. The vibes in the building were magnificent, as Toronto’s players just seemed to be enjoying the moment, playing freely, and succeeding at everything.

Raptors' Wait to Clinch Lottery Spot Continues Following Another Victory Over Hornets - Sports Illustrated
The Toronto Raptors are taking it down to the wire.

At this point, the only thing that matters is securing the seventh spot in the draft lottery standings. Locking in the best possible odds has been the organization’s top priority for at least a month. But Wednesday’s 126–96 win over the Charlotte Hornets means the Raptors still need one more loss to clinch that spot.

The problem is what comes next.

Toronto travels to Dallas on Friday to face the Mavericks, who may have already secured their play-in position and have little reason to go all out. It’s a game the Raptors could easily lose. But if the Mavericks decide to rest their stars, a surprise win is not out of the question.

There is another path to the seventh spot. A San Antonio Spurs victory in any of their final games would also lock it in for Toronto. That seems unlikely on Wednesday against the Warriors, but Friday’s matchup with a potentially unmotivated Suns team could offer a more realistic opportunity.

The real concern is if it all comes down to Sunday’s season finale in San Antonio. End-of-season games often get strange, and considering how the last few weeks have played out, it would not be surprising if Toronto accidentally pulls out a win it has no interest in earning.

Take Wednesday’s game, for example.

The Raptors did the honorable thing by starting Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett in the home finale. The problem was how that group looked against a Hornets team more focused on celebrating Taj Gibson’s 1000th game than competing. Barnes finished with 17 points, including a trio of pull-up threes, and the trio was plus-six in just under 15 minutes together.

Toronto’s depth is proving too strong as well.

Two-way players Jared Rhoden and AJ Lawson both got hot, chipping in 23 and 14 points, respectively. Jonathan Mogbo recorded a 17-point, 10-rebound, 11-assist triple-double, the first of his career. Cole Swider and Jamison Battle combined for four three-pointers, continuing a trend of unexpected contributions from the back half of the roster.

It’s created little breathing room for Toronto.

Maybe Friday the Raptors finally do what needs to be done.

Scottie Barnes’ poor shooting season clouds the Raptors’ offensive outlook - The Athletic
More than anything else, Barnes’ shooting is an issue. It’s not just a problem from the 3-point arc, where he has shot a career-worst 26.3 percent this year. In his rookie year, he shot 50 percent from between three and 10 feet from the basket — essentially in the paint, but outside of the restricted area. That has dropped as the seasons have gone on, and he’s at a career-worst 41.7 percent from that range this year.

That area is crucial for him. Barnes’ potential as a playmaker as a roller — like Green — is immense. However, he doesn’t have the spacing around him that Green did as the Warriors made five consecutive NBA Finals, so being dangerous from that area, and causing the defence to collapse on him, is essential to exploit that. The average percentage from that range tends to hover around 47 percent.

In fairness, a hand injury, which has kept Barnes out of the Raptors’ prior two games heading into Wednesday’s home finale against Charlotte, has been bothering him for at least the last month. There has not been enough of a dropoff to make anyone think the injury is the entire problem. Before March, Barnes was shooting 52.3/26.9/77.3 percent from inside the arc, 3-point range and the free-throw line, respectively. Since March 1, he’s at 46.7/23.4/74.4. It has hurt him, but he was not throwing flames before the injury became worse. (Barnes said on Tuesday an incident on March 7 aggravated the injury, but it had been bothering him before that.)

If Barnes could get right to the rim more often, it would be less of a problem. That’s not how the Raptors are built. He plays with Jakob Poeltl, who cannot stray too far from the paint, making it harder for Barnes to go all the way. The Raptors have scored 110.4 points per 100 possessions when they shared the floor — slightly above average for the team, miserable for the league. They are also notably better defensively when the pair shares the floor compared to when Barnes plays and Poeltl sits. The idea of Barnes playing heavy minutes defending centres throughout the season is dangerous, putting him in more danger of injury.

You see the issue. Barring Poeltl becoming a high-volume, high-accuracy 3-point shooter, which, with apologies to his corner 3 in Portland, seems unlikely, the pressure falls on Barnes to expand his game.

It has happened in the close midrange this year, where Barnes is shooting a solid 47.4 percent. If he can bump that up a bit more, he will become a massive threat catching the ball at the elbow as both a scorer and a playmaker. (Then again, that’s where Poeltl often sets up.)

The deep midrange and the 3 remain issues for Barnes. On the latter front, at least there is the prospect of changing both the volume and diet of the shots. Barnes had carte blanche to experiment this year. As expectations rise, he will have to narrow in on what works for him.

“I think there’s a progression to everything. In order to be good off the dribble or an off-the-move shooter from the 3-point line, the first step is becoming a really good spot-up shooter,” Raptors coach Darko Rajaković said. “We’ve seen it from RJ (Barrett). At the start of the year … he was trying to take a lot of 3s, and then when he settled for more catch-and-shoot 3s, his percentage improved quite a bit. I think we need to have that approach with Scottie while, at the same time, he needs to work on other shots that are going to be a part of his package.”

Raptors end-of-season awards featuring Jakob Poeltl’s floaters and Jamal Shead’s dunks - The Athletic
Most pleasant surprise: Shead’s emergence

For financial purposes, the Raptors needed to hit on one of their second-round picks or undrafted free agents, especially after they traded for Brandon Ingram, muddying their long-term cap situation. Shead was known for his on-ball defence at the University of Houston, and that has carried over to the NBA.

He has shown more offensive potential than expected, improving his shot as the season went on and providing some necessary paint penetration for a team that can string together passes but rarely gets to the rim. Shead has a long way to go, but he looks like a keeper as a backup point guard.

Nominees: Agbaji’s solid play; Chris Boucher can’t miss; Poeltl’s stat-stuffing; Walter’s end of season; the competent defence