We gave this a go last June and it was both an interesting and frustrating exercise so let’s run it back. There wasn’t a ton of major movement beyond the national title game participants and a firing but still useful to get the big picture juices flowing as we begin to approach the season. A pet peeve is people grousing about rankings without providing their own so this is attempting to do the work in order to maintain Ethical Hater status.
What criteria are being used here? (This part is sort of important and somehow a thing many rankings seem to skip.) Overall head coaching resume with a weight toward the last few years and some light inclusion of which direction trend lines seem to be pointing. I’m not leaning too much on projections because that gets you in trouble — can always move entrants up or down the next time we do this — but considering win totals for the 2026 season and imagining how we’d feel if the coach goes just over or under.
For tiebreaking, I am giving precedence to guys who have done it at multiple stops and whom you’d feel confident dropping into a random situation and having them succeed. In our current NIL era, I think personal recruiting chops are less important than they would have been five years ago, so less consideration for that. Bonus points for team chemistry and organization, success at programs that are not historically great and engineering quick turnarounds. Major demerits if there’s a chance you’ll be removed at the end of (or during) the 2026 season if it goes poorly.
Another thing I’m keeping in mind is whether a coach can keep the floor from falling out amid tumult. If you want to be at the very top you need to win or at least compete for national titles, but there’s something to be said for consistently avoiding calamitous dips that call the entire operation into question. For example: I probably have Josh Heupel a little higher than most, but I think taking a team to the playoffs, losing key starters to the draft, losing your quarterback late in spring due to NIL nonsense and still staying respectable is commendable. The opposite is whatever Mike Norvell let happen in Tallahassee.
One takeaway: A lot of good coaches! I think everyone from about 16 to 30ish is pretty fungible, and that’s even before you get into old hands like Dave Doeren and Pat Narduzzi or young guns with potential like Eric Morris and Collin Klein.
Here is last year’s ranking in full. The 2025 rankings are noted below in parentheses. I didn’t treat this as much as moving coaches up and down versus just doing a new list from scratch and seeing what the changes ended up being in the aftermath.
Eli Drinkiwitz, Missouri (24)
Lance Leipold, Kansas (23)
Chris Klieman (22)
Jeff Monken, Army (21)
Spencer Danielson, Boise State (17)
Brian Kelly (9)
Klieman retired and Kelly was fired, so neither are technically college football coaches at the moment and therefore can’t be on the list. Drinkiwitz was 26th on the initial draft and could easily be in after another solid season at Missouri (the schedule gets much tougher in 2026, so if he delivers again he’ll be back among the ranked). Leipold has gone 5-7 two years in a row after his 9-win 2023 -- still respectable for the Jayhawks, but enough of a dip to dip out. Monken, obviously a good coach, slipped from “12-win American Conference champion” to 7-6. Danielson would be in the 26-30 range, navigating some non-conference losses and a quarterback injury to get the Broncos another Mountain West title before their move to the Pac-12.
Brent Key, Georgia Tech - Respect for being the ACC Tech Brent that survived. Got the Yellow Jackets into the top ten last year and couldn’t close the deal (lost four of the last five). Curious to see how this operation looks without the Haynes King-Buster Faulkner combination driving the offense.
Brent Venables, Oklahoma - Given heavy consideration because of the playoff appearance, but he’s 32-20 overall, 8-8 in the SEC and winless in the postseason. If the Sooners can string together two good seasons, he’ll jump into the rankings, but projections have them slipping back toward 7-5.
Jason Eck, New Mexico - Nearly made the Mountain West title game in his first season with the Lobos, taking them from 114th to 69th in F+ in one season after a couple of top ten FCS finishes at Idaho. Will be getting a big job soon. (This is where we’re contractually obligated to mention he is a Wisconsin native who played for the Badgers.)
Bob Chesney, UCLA - Got James Madison to the playoff and put up a game effort in Eugene. Has won everywhere he’s coached (Salve Regina, Assumption, Holy Cross) and is now taking the big step up to Westwood.
Jon Sumrall, Florida - Has been an FBS head coach for four seasons and has three conference titles (two at Troy and one at Tulane). If he gets Florida back to respectability in year one after getting the Green Wave to the playoffs he’ll definitely be ranked in the next edition.
Sonny Dykes, TCU - After a seesaw first two years in Fort Worth (13-2 to 5-7) things have stabilized with consecutive 8-4 campaigns capped off by bowl wins. We’re now at a decade and a half of him being solid at a variety of different stops.
Brian Newberry, Navy - 21 wins over the last two years, including two bowl victories and a Top 25 finish in the AP poll. The Midshipmen are the preseason favorites to win the American, an accomplishment that would get him even closer to the rankings (and potentially into the playoffs depending how the rest of the Group of 6 shakes out).
Manny Diaz, Duke - Coming off an ACC championship and Sun Bowl victory, which means both of his seasons with the Blue Devils hit nine wins. A big test as he attempts to survive the late poaching of his quarterback.
Jim L. Mora, Colorado State - An acknowledgement he won 18 games over his final two seasons at UConn, added a bowl victory and secured a transitive ACC title. At UConn! FYI: Colorado State is in the new Pac-12.
25) Joey McGuire, Texas Tech (NR)
Tipping the cap for making the playoff and winning Texas Tech their first Big 12 title. Not quite sure how to evaluate him as a coach, because yeah no duh you can run through the league when you’re spending way more than anyone else but what happens when you play a team that can match you in the trenches (you get shut out by Oregon, apparently). The Brendan Sorsby saga is obviously not McGuire’s fault but I wouldn’t say he handled the messaging around it well (although considering how everyone in Lubbock responded so calmly and normally, he was at least in sync). Very strange situation all around but if they keep making the playoffs he’ll stay on the list.
24) Clark Lea, Vanderbilt (NR)
10-win season! A year after getting the Commodores their first bowl win since 2013. Vanderbilt finished 111th in F+ in Lea’s first season and then got all the way to 10th last year, which is absurd for such a historically woeful program. What life and the offense looks like without Diego Pavia is a question that looms impossibly large, as Lea now must make sure the floor is secure after establishing a vaulted ceiling that had them one additional win away from the playoff.
23) Kirk Ferentz, Iowa (NR)
Probably should have been on the list last year but I was holding the statistical and aesthetic deficiencies of the Hawkeye offense against him. Iowa went 9-4 in 2025 but they were closer to something much more exciting (their four losses came by a total of 15 points) that lined up with their finish of 12th in F+. Long track record of knowing what you’re getting and the dissolution of Big Ten West scheduling hasn’t doomed them thus far.
22) Matt Campbell, Penn State (20)
21) Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State (18)
Dillingham stays ahead of Campbell because a) Dillingham has a Big 12 title and playoff appearance due to a victory over Campbell, b) Last year the Sun Devils won in Ames with Jeff Sims as their starting quarterback, a remarkable feat, and c) Dillingham got to eight wins despite Sam Leavitt being banged up, and his was the only Big 12 team to defeat Texas Tech. Arizona State has an absurd schedule this year (they play in College Station and England on consecutive weekends) so arrow maybe pointing down for Dillingham but he’s been so good after a gut rebuild job when taking over.
Odd season for Campbell, who finished 8-4 with all four losses coming in a row in the middle of the season. We’re finally going to have some new angles via which to evaluate him now that he’s moved to Happy Valley, where the expectations and resources are both going up in a major way. If Campbell delivers on those high expectations for his first year with the Nittany Lions, he’ll ascend.
20) Kalani Sitake, BYU (NR)
23-4 over the last two seasons, nearly making the playoff and finishing in the top 13 of the AP poll twice. Plenty of job security after Penn State made a run at hiring him and Big Cookie stepped in for a new contract to retain the Cougar alum. Worth noting: Lost his defensive coordinator to Michigan after finishing in the Top 20 of DF+ previous two seasons.
19) Rhett Lashlee, SMU (16)
A blown lead in Berkeley cost the Mustangs a shot at playing in the ACC title game both of their first two years in the league but still a solid 9-4 season to follow up 11 wins and a playoff berth, which followed 11 wins and an American title. A few nice wins in 2025 (Miami in overtime, blowing out Louisville, at Clemson) and a roster that should be able to compete for the ACC crown this fall.
18) Lincoln Riley, Southern Cal (19)
In his fourth season with the Trojans, Riley cut out the bad losses (only regular season defeats were on the road at Illinois, Notre Dame and Oregon) but still managed to leave a sour taste, blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead to TCU’s backup quarterback to lose the Alamo Bowl and finish 9-4. Recruiting is humming along but I’m wondering where the patience level stands if he doesn’t take advantage of whining his way out of the Notre Dame series to comfortably exceed their projected record of 8-4ish and make the 12-team field. (Riley is 24-15 at USC over the last three seasons.) Gary Patterson replacing D’Anton Lynn is an interesting gamble.
17) James Franklin, Virginia Tech (8)
A slight demerit for being fired midway through last season from his previous job and the usual range of “Now they tell us” stories about everything he was doing wrong in State College but the resume is still good: Won games at Vanderbilt and had Penn State consistently in or around the top ten. Was so close to playing for a national championship two seasons ago but alas.
16) Jeff Brohm, Louisville (13)
I have been traditionally very pro-Brohm (he won a division title at Purdue!!) but while he keeps getting the cool wins (on the road at No. 2 Miami) there are confounding losses (consecutive home defeats to California and Clemson, with penalties against the Tigers blamed on team culture by the starting quarterback). Cardinals slipped from 18th to 27th in F+ from 2024 to 2025, which isn’t huge but is worth noting. The ACC schedule seems friendly so a return to the title game would bump him back up.
15) Willie Fritz, Houston (NR)
A guy who has won everywhere took the Cougars to ten wins and a final ranking in the Top 25 in his second year there. The track record was already strong with conference titles at Sam Houston State, Georgia Southern and Tulane, we’ve now seen the proof of concept at a Power 4 school and the arrow still seems to be pointing up (via the top quarterback prospect in this fall’s freshman class). My preference is always for guys you could drop in at any level of college football with any level of resources and you know they’d make it work and nobody exemplifies that better than Fritz.
14) Bret Bielema, Illinois (14)
Bielema couldn’t elevate the Illini from their 10-3 record in 2024 but he maintained, guiding the program to consecutive nine-win seasons for the first time in its history. This remains probably as high as you could reasonably have him and there’s a good chance he tumbles after the season (Illinois is projected for seven-ish wins and will have a new quarterback) but there’s a lengthy track record of success at this point.
13) Josh Heupel, Tennessee (10)
The Volunteers survived the Nico Iamaleava offseason turmoil to put up a respectable eight wins and F+ finish of 20th. It does seem possible that fans start to feel the best Heupel days are behind him in Knoxville (they finished in the AP Top 10 in 2022 and 2024 and like orange brethren Illinois are only projected to win seven-ish games this season) but he’s done good work after going 28-8 at Central Florida. One thing that could help Heupel’s medium-term cause is bringing in a five-star freshman at quarterback. When evaluating things on Rocky Top, remember that before Heupel took over in 2021 they had not hit ten wins in a season since 2007.
12) Mike Elko, Texas A&M (NR)
Elko almost made the list last time around but didn’t due to an ugly close to the 2024 season (losses in four of the last five). The most recent Aggie season also ended with consecutive losses but that’s slightly more palatable when you’ve won the first 11. Elko won at Duke with fewer resources and has done quite well since his arrival in College Station, putting the money cannon to effective use in roster building and making a smart original offensive coordinator hire in Collin Klein. Elko went with an internal promotion to replace Klein, so we’ll see how that plays out with the mercurial Marcel Reed back under center.
11) Mario Cristobal, Miami (25)
Winning three playoff games is a great way to move up the list with alacrity. Still lost to two unranked opponents as a favorite but nothing especially tragic with Louisville and SMU as worthy foes. After going just 12-13 his first two seasons with the Hurricanes, Cristobal is 23-6 since and is a clear favorite to win the ACC (Miami and Notre Dame have the same number of both ACC title game appearances and victories) and return to the playoff. Will play a rather important non-conference game the first weekend of November.
10) Kyle Whittingham, Michigan (12)
Twelfth felt about as high as you could have put Whittingham after a couple of disappointing years for the Utes, but lo and behold he got quarterback figured out with Devon Dampier and they leapt up to 10-2 and 7th in F+. It’s nice when faith is rewarded, but it’s annoying when Utah ousts him to promote the coach-in-waiting and bails out the Wolverines amid yet another controversy. Different level of expectations and spotlight intensity in Ann Arbor but also a different level of resources to balance that out.
9) Lane Kiffin, LSU (11)
Setting aside how it all came to a close, we’re still talking about him getting Ole Miss to 11-1 and a playoff home game via a transfer quarterback from Ferris State who started the season as the backup. 32-6 overall his last three seasons in Oxford, four Top 15 finishes in five years and won conference titles in two of his three years at Florida Atlantic. If he revives the Bayou Bengals, he will slide up into the quagmire directly ahead of him.
8) Steve Sarkisian, Texas (5)
7) Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame (6)
6) Dan Lanning, Oregon (7)
5) Kalen Deboer, Alabama (4)
You can put this quartet in any order. A few things to consider:
Despite the ugly nature of the SEC title and Rose Bowl losses, Deboer still won the SEC regular season and a road playoff game. He also has a better head coaching track record at previous schools and consistently defeated Lanning head-to-head, including on Washington’s 14-win run to the national title game in 2023. (He’s also 2-1 against Kirby Smart, including a win in Athens, and 2-0 against Sark, including in the 2023 semifinal.) I know I just said you can put this in any order, but I don’t actually think you can put Lanning ahead of Deboer.
Lanning’s only two losses last season came against the champ and he won two playoff games (albeit against the Sun Belt champion and a Texas Tech team that did not have the offensive juice to actually compete). Title runs have ended ugly three years in a row but the roster is set up for him to jump up next season.
Both Freeman and Sarkisian missed the playoffs last season but they still fielded quality teams that were playing better as the schedule came to a close. They both deserve blame for how blah the sides of the ball they’re known for were at the start of the season (Longhorns offense and Irish defense) but both could win the 2026 title. Tiebreaker here is there’s no chance Freeman is pushed out for football reasons at the end of the season and you can’t totally say the same for Sarkisian.
If I had to guess how this will look in a year, Deboer will have slipped and one of the others will have jumped into the top four, with the bonus potential of Kiffin leaping up.
4) Dabo Swinney, Clemson (3)
Swinney hasn’t fielded a national title-competitive team since Trevor Lawrence went to the NFL (the 8-0 team Notre Dame beat in 2022 finished 19th in F+) so I would be totally fine moving him lower on this list. The two rings still play (along with the entire incredible stretch from 2015 to 2020) and even though the Tigers have been disappointing they haven’t truly bottomed out (they won the ACC title two seasons ago). Barring a resurgence or retirement, Swinney is going to slowly drift back as the guys behind him win titles. (Please drift behind Marcus.)
3) Ryan Day, Ohio State (2)
2) Curt Cignetti, Indiana (15)
1) Kirby Smart, Georgia (1)
Pushing back on recency bias to reward two rings over one, and despite their one-and-done playoff appearances the Bulldogs have still won consecutive SEC titles and put together strong teams (top seven in F+). Cignetti over Day because he just beat him in the Big Ten title game, has won in more places and traditionally it’s been somewhat harder to win in Bloomington than Columbus. (Day demerit: Buckeyes haven’t won a Big Ten title since 2020.) Also because there’s no chance Cignetti is gone for football reasons after 2026 but if Michigan wins at the Horseshoe again followed by a disappointing playoff performance we can’t totally say the same for Day. If you wanted to flip the top two I wouldn’t fight you, but I think they’re clearly the top two.
There we stand. Questions (excluding Dabo, because if you want to punt him further back I get it): 1) Is anyone ranked egregiously too high or low? 2) Does anyone outside the top nine have a legitimate case to join that group? I’m about as high as you can be on the Elko-Heupel-Bielema-Fritz crew, and about as low as you can be on Riley and Campbell, but like with Cristobal, I’m not opposed to a rapid ascension if a standout run merits it.
Thanks for reading. We’re closing in on actual preseason hype/preview time so if there’s anything you’d like a deep dive on via newsletter or podcast in addition to the usual shoot me an email and let me know. Sonia Citron vs. Olivia Miles was a great deal of fun (Soni is too good and messing up the Mystics tank). Until next time, take care of yourselves and each other.
No posts
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.