Rakes Report #286: Do you believe in life after Love?

Despite the length of the previous edition we’ve got some more spring football and NFL draft ramblings to hit before turning to a much delayed basketball conversation. Also, on the podcast front, this Tuesday we’ll have an episode touching on some assorted football topics plus reviewing The Pitt’s second season with the Report Medical Team so give that a listen if you have any interest (Spotify) (Apple).

One of the fun (“fun”) facts coming out of the 2026 NFL Draft was that every Ohio State defensive starter Notre Dame faced in the national championship game ended up being selected in the first five rounds. This does not include Arvell Reese, who was a reserve for the title team and went No. 5 overall. I don’t know how this compares to “Playing three of the top five finishers in Heisman voting in the same playoff game” but it’s certainly all super fun.

What actually is non-sarcastic fun is that the Notre Dame defense has a chance to be the Big Bad this fall. We’ve done an ad hoc version of this exercise on the podcast but when you lay out the professional prospects for this unit it’s a nice time. We’re assuming good health for everyone and doing this very broadly through a lens settled between realistic and rosy. Due to finding NFL draft minutiae quite boring, if I’m off by a couple rounds one direction or the other I want to stress I am Tommy Lee Jones in his Oscar-winning role.

Could go Top Ten or even Top Five (1): Leonard Moore. We would have had Benjamin Morrison near here two years ago but even with his injury he was still a second rounder. Long way to go but there’s a chance Moore is the first non-QB/Jeremiah Smith off the board.

Defensive ends who will get drafted, could be quite high (2): Boubacar Traore and Bryce Young. Both have first round frames and potential but they’d have to severely regress from last season to not at least go on the third day. Traore has popped up in some way too early first rounds, he’s absolutely on the radar (as he should be).

The draft is so weird about safeties — Kyle Hamilton slipped to No. 14, Xavier Watts went in the third round — but these guys will get drafted (3): Tae Johnson, Adon Shuler and Luke Talich.

Guys who have shown up on top ten corners lists previously (2): Christian Gray and D.J. McKinney. Both have played a ton of football so there’s plenty of film to get nitpicked but I’d lean they are drafted. With Gray’s profile of “Absolute gamer who makes big plays but also has some bad habits,” you would suspect a lot of front offices would focus on the first two parts of that and assume they could fix the third.

Crazy talented linebacker who could go super high and will definitely be drafted provided his rehab continues apace (1): Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa.

Highly productive veteran Notre Dame linebackers have all been drafted in recent years so let’s assume that continues (2): Drayk Bowen and Jaiden Ausberry.

I don’t know which ones but Gabe Rubio just went in the sixth round so let’s say two of these defensive tackles go (2): Francis Brewu, Tionne Gray, Elijah Hughes and Jason Onye.

That’s thirteen people projected out to be drafted, which seems like way too many so let’s go ahead and say I was too rosy and lop it down to an even ten, assuming lack of development/regression/too many main character things breaking bad/injury/disappointing combine/etc. Heck, cut off a couple more and make it eight (8) if you want.

The thing is, there are way more guys who could go to balance that out! Considering his athleticism/pedigree, Keon Keeley is one good season from being on somebody’s board. I don’t want to get too aggressive projecting Rodney Dunham or Madden Faraimo but there is absolutely a world where they are major contributors in 2026 and end up not just drafted but drafted really high when eligible. Ethan Long doesn’t have their recruiting ranking but he could be on the path of “Fourth safety for Irish in 2026, fourth round draft pick down the line.” Contributor/Draft Pick could also potentially apply to Jayden Sanders, Dallas Golden or Mark Zackery IV. It’s not impossible to imagine someone falling in love with Jaylen Sneed. What if another one of the defensive tackles goes? What if they’re all really good or Armel Mukam/Christopher Burgess Jr. step up and yet another one of the defensive tackles goes?

That’s ten more bolded names. They won’t all get drafted or even end up on NFL rosters, but add up everyone and that’s an entire two-deep of guys who you can at least squint at and think they’re a potential pick. This defense is going to be so good but what will take it up the final few steps is more than just Moore ascending to no-brainer high pick status. If we get to November and it’s obvious guys like Traore, KVA, Johnson, ideally Young and perhaps one of the tackles are going to be off the board by the end of the third round, we’re in rare air. I have faith in Chris Ash after the final nine and a half games of 2025 but he, Marcus Freeman and all the new assistants need to deliver here.

The defense is ready to do something special this season, but is the offense potentially a year away from matching them? Let me take you through my broken brain in calendar form.

April 21: During an interview on The Echoes podcast, draft analyst Nate Tice said he currently has C.J. Carr graded as a third round pick. The paranoid nature of the sports fan mind might lead one to read this and believe Tice is just a Notre Dame hater but there’s no evidence that’s the case, as he was incredibly high on Riley Leonard and did not deliver his Carr appraisal with any hint of malice. He obviously could simply be wrong in his evaluation, a thing that happens to everyone even if they approach the film with clear eyes, full hearts and open minds.

This raised some concern that while Carr could be really good in 2026, depending on how advanced the pieces are around him he might have to be tremendous to get where we want to go. The way everyone around Notre Dame’s program and guys like Dan Orlovsky talk about Carr as a no-brainer top ten pick, it can be jarring to see that’s not the consensus.

Two days pass.

April 23: Pete Thamel publishes a story on ESPN in which he talked to 10 NFL scouts and asked them to project who the top three quarterbacks will be in the 2027 Draft, including this disclaimer as a reminder to not take it as gospel as we’re all having some fun projecting way too far out for the purposes of content: “The scouts stress that this is an imperfect exercise, as they haven’t come close to closely watching all the quarterbacks for the 2027 draft. Many have inherent regional biases because they haven’t yet needed to watch the prospects who become draft eligible after the 2026 season.”

Carr finished tied for sixth, behind Dante Moore, Arch Manning, Julian Sayin, Brendan Sorsby (the scouts offered their takes before the report on Sorsby’s gambling issues arose) and LaNorris Sellers, and alongside Drew Mestemaker and Sam Leavitt.

Much like Tice and as highlighted in the piece, the scouts could just be wrong. Then there’s the fact that if everyone who didn’t have Carr in their top three had him fourth that would still be awesome for Carr and the Irish offense. Skipping ahead a bit but lo and behold, in his April 28 mock draft, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Carr as the fourth quarterback (Manning, Moore, Mestemaker) going 15th overall. I think everyone would sign up for that.

Also on this date, both Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price go in the first round of the NFL Draft.

April 24: Malachi Fields and Eli Raridon are both selected in the third round of the NFL Draft. Fields put up three productive college seasons and was steady while also mixing in some of the spectacular like we saw in Pittsburgh (gif above). The 2025 production came despite Fields having more than 40% of his downfield targets end up awry, the worst of any receiver prospect in the draft outside of KC Concepcion (I really wish Notre Dame hadn’t lost to Marcel Reed). Due to being in a run-heavy offense that was often blowing out their opponents because the defense was great, Fields’ target volume was way down in his lone year in blue and gold (62 targets in 2025, versus 94 and 100 in the preceding two years). This is not to say Notre Dame fans underappreciated Fields, but in a different situation — more close games where passing was necessary, better throws when he was downfield — he would have likely produced even more.

Raridon came into 2025 with 16 career catches and proved himself an awesome 6’6” target for Carr. After two drops against Miami, Raridon was a beast the rest of the way, his only other drop all season coming in Palo Alto. He had pristine efforts in some key games (four targets for four receptions and 85 yards against Texas A&M, seven targets for seven receptions and 109 yards against NC State, nine targets for six receptions and 67 yards against Pitt) and went on the draft’s second day despite some past injury issues. With a clean bill of health, I suspect we’re talking about a second or even first round pick with his size, catch radius and ability to get downfield.

(Will Pauling wasn’t drafted, but he was sturdy in 2025, with only two drops on 41 targets. After a 19.2% drop rate on 75 targets during his last year at Wisconsin, Pauling cut that down to just 7.1%. Like Fields, in an offense that had to pass more, I think he would have scaled up his counting stats accordingly.)

That’s a lot to replace around Carr. Let’s set Jordan Faison to the side because I have no questions about his abilities in a vacuum and somehow even fewer when it comes to the lethal rapport he’s established with his rising junior quarterback. Beyond him, who do you know for sure can deliver in this offense? Jaden Greathouse has done it before, but if you’re wary of his hamstring at this point I would say that’s very reasonable. I would love for the most bullish projections on Mylan Graham, Quincy Porter and Micah Gilbert to all come to pass, but they will enter the season with six, four and nine career receptions, respectively. Odds are at least one of those guys is going to have a really good if not spectacular season working with Carr, but I’m not putting that in pen just yet.

Let’s slide away from receiver specifically. This is Notre Dame and there are a ton of tight end options, but will they collectively approach what Raridon was able to do in 2025 as a receiver? (I have no doubt their blocking is going to be a weapon.) Aneyas Williams is a great pass-catching threat, but it’s unfortunately still going to be a step down from Jeremiyah freaking Love. Nolan James, Jr. could live up to his coaches’ hype and still not be nearly as good as Jadarian Price. The offensive line has all-world potential, but it’s still projected to start two new tackles who’ve never previously played that position at the college level. Maybe they’re awesome out of the gate or by midseason, or maybe they need a full year to reach their potential.

Two reasons not to let this get you down. 1) Please look up above about how good the defense will be and then look at Notre Dame’s schedule. Even if the offense is clunky for the first half of the regular season and playing more like a top 20 F+ unit instead of the Top 6 unit of the last two seasons the Irish will still be double-digit favorites in every game. 2) As we’ve stated here often, there are so many options and so much upside on this roster that it would be surprising if Mike Denbrock didn’t get it all sorted out eventually. If it takes a few games for Graham or James Flanigan to build their connection with Carr or we must wait until Provo for the offensive line to really gel, okay, that’s fine, because we’re not trying to put up style points in September. This is about not losing games while building to an offense capable of beating Miami on Nov. 7 and then three or four more playoff-caliber teams in a single elimination bracket.

I went down this rabbit hole as a cautionary measure for myself because sometimes I’ll see a quote from a player or coach about the level of focus this team has after the way last season ended and think “Good God, the Badgers are going to be turned into a fine pink mist.” And while that could definitely happen — the early spread is approaching 20 points — there’s also the possibility the Irish get stuck in the muck a bit and have a point total in the mid-teens going into the half and it’s a little disappointing. Hopefully that isn’t the case but if is remember it’s a long season.

This great piece is about the new Portland Trailblazers owner being cheap but man does the paragraph below resonate as we look down the barrel at the massive changes to college sports of past (the horrors of conference realignment), present (76-team NCAA basketball tournament, sure!) and yet to come (a football superleague). Tony Petitti is not alone in his evils.

Fans are caught in a light hostage situation, authentically supporting something that Dundon frankly doesn’t care to grasp is the last line of defiance. Passive indifference won’t change things and larger scale boycotts aren’t realistic. If you let him take away the thing you love, he will still make it work for him, just without you.

Let’s close with some basketball. It’s been over a month so I won’t go too long but I’m so immensely proud of and pleased with how Niele Ivey’s team ended her sixth season as head coach. The Irish finished 10-2 in their final dozen, the two losses coming by two points in the ACC Tournament to a Duke team that made the Elite Eight and to the top seeded UConn team in the Elite Eight. Hannah Hidalgo messing around and almost putting up a damn quadruple-double against two seed Vanderbilt (who had spent much of the season ranked in the Top 5) is an iconic March performance. Notre Dame is now one of three schools to have reached the last five Sweet Sixteens (UConn, South Carolina) and while those teams have Final Fours and rings over the half-decade period it’s still something for which Ivey and company should be proud.

This offseason has been mostly positive but not all roses. The team kept Hidalgo in the fold (her leaving might have been the only non-football thing that could have gotten Pete Bevacqua yelled at) and added two solid transfers (Princeton’s wonderfully named Madison St. Rose at guard and Louisville’s Anaya Hardy on the interior*) to go with an incredible incoming recruiting class. On the other hand, they missed out on a potentially transformative forward in Iowa State’s Addy Brown (who ended up committing to UCLA) and lost fifth-year senior K.K. Bransford (who committed to…UCLA). Players can still come out of the portal so the roster isn’t necessarily set but the current configuration puts a lot of pressure on the youths (this includes McDonald’s All-American Leah Macy, who redshirted last season recovering from an injury suffered in high school) to be ready for major contributions because currently things feel small up front and light in shooting overall.

* St. Rose is a Jersey native who knows Hidalgo, has decent size for a guard, played a ton of minutes for a good Tigers team (they were a nine seed in the tourney) and has an all-around offensive game save for three-point shooting, which could be an issue if neither her nor or her fellow Garden Stater can lock in from beyond the arc. Hardy has two years of eligibility remaining (thank you, Micki) and brings athleticism (she can dunk), a 6’3” frame and potential. She was occasionally cracking double-digit minutes with the Cardinals down the stretch so that will need to crank up considerably unless the Irish add another frontcourt player or the freshmen are really really ready.

Last month on the podcast, Eric Hansen said his reporting led him to believe that while the women’s team doesn’t have a blank check like you might see at a few of the powers, Ivey is happy with the support she’s receiving. This jives with what I’ve heard elsewhere and this is a good roster but man I simply wish for Hidalgo’s senior year the Irish splashed some stupid money to solidify the team as a top-tier contender. I understand that there’s a budget and football is the priority etc. etc. etc. but I have a hard time with Notre Dame ever crying poor when driving around campus for Blue-Gold weekend one can be reminded it sometimes feels as much like a real estate development company that does Federalist Society seminars and hosts a few football games as it does a university. This is admittedly not a charitable read and if the Irish find themselves in the Final Four in April please throw it in my face.

On the men’s side, welp. Mass personnel exodus (including the team’s three best players heading to Tennessee, Indiana and Clemson) and influx (including a couple promising additions) ahead of Micah Shrewsberry’s fourth season. I haven’t taken the time to dive in on all the new folks yet so we’ll hit that later in the year but before we even set a wins goal I am more curious what the process and identity look like come the season. Setting aside too many losses, one of the frustrations with Shrewsberry’s tenure is that even after three years it’s difficult to say what he wants his program to look like, how he wants them to play or what an ideal roster construction to support that might be. Not having a proof of concept is one thing but I’d love a concept of a concept at some point here. Certainly feels like this is heading in the wrong direction but if Shrewsberry can steer it toward calmer waters then I’m open to being pleasantly surprised. The struggles have also really underlined the lack of reporting infrastructure around the program, especially in contrast to football. Alas.

Okay, that’s it - - nice that recruiting is going so wonderfully, seems like the Irish are on a good roll that should only get better in the coming weeks. Hopefully otherwise things are quiet for the next bit but I’ll be around noodling on some stuff in this space and/or on the podcast. Always feel free to reach out via email (rakesreport@gmail.com or just respond if you’re reading this in your inbox), over on Bluesky or I’m still checking in on Twitter occasionally although one of Elon’s changes means I no longer see DM alerts anywhere. At least I can do my banking there? Until next time, take care of yourselves and each other.