On economics, identity, justice, and discourse...
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Back in late June I signed a contract with Princeton University Press for a trade book, Engines of Prophecy: The Power and Perils of Prediction Markets. I think it will be broadly accessible and fun to read but the book will also grapple with some deeper questions related to information, beliefs, and trading in asset markets.
The following remarks were prepared for delivery to the board of the Teagle Foundation a couple of weeks ago.
Back in February of this year I had the opportunity to speak with Matt Jackson for the Human Centered podcast. This is the official podcast of the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford, where Matt was a fellow in 2005-06 and where I am just finishing up my own fellowship year.
At around 6:50am ET on March 24, there was an unusually large spike in trading volume in oil and stock futures markets.
Insider trading on prediction markets is turning into a dog-bites-man type of story.
There’s so much information now available at our fingertips, and we face increasingly frequent and challenging decisions regarding the allocation of time and attention.
The price of a contract that pays a dollar if Jesus Christ returns this year is currently trading at about four cents on Polymarket, up from about two cents in early January:
In my last post I discussed the case of a Polymarket trader who placed a series of well-timed bets on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and made a profit of over $400,000 (on a $32,000 investment) in just a few days.
Major economic, political, and military decisions move asset prices, and those with foreknowledge of such things can make significant trading profits.
I’m hoping that this post will have something useful to say about strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, and asset price bubbles.
