Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures rose Monday, lifted by a strong revenue forecast from AI leader Anthropic, as investors weighed an improving rate outlook against ongoing Middle East tensions. Chipmakers have been under pressure in recent months on concerns over the payoff from heavy AI investment.
Peace talks remain stalled and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still halted, with no sign either side is moving toward ending the conflict.
Soft inflation data and a surprise drop in retail sales last week led traders to dial back the odds of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting.
US equities pushed to fresh all-time highs last week, with the S&P 500 adding another 0.4% on the back of a string of benign inflation prints.
What stands out is that this isn’t just low volatility drawing dip buyers back in. Hedge funds have been net buyers of equities for several straight weeks now, among the fastest buying stretches in months. Most of that demand has come from individual stocks rather than broad index products, and it’s being driven mainly by fresh long positions rather than short covering.
That kind of buying is often paired with a fundamental catalyst, and earnings have provided one. Corporate profit growth is running well above its historical average this quarter, and while AI infrastructure spending kicked off the acceleration, growth across the rest of the market has been picking up steadily too.
Key takeaway: The rally is being backed by two supportive trends at once, real buying rather than just short covering, and earnings growth that’s broadening beyond AI. Positioning still has room to build further too, since aggregate hedge fund exposure remains below where it started the year even after the recent buying.
In todays brief we look at what the latest Nasdaq futures data is signaling beneath the surface, and why the gap between price and positioning could matter for where tech goes next.
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