Zone, part 2

Zone defense, at least the classic “3-man-cup” variant, where 3 people chase the disc like a pack of tall dogs, is odd. The cup itself, the 3 human-dogs, is the epitome of galaxy-brain nonsense. How long can YOU chase a disc before you get tired and just have to lay down?

Zone defense is a “Force Stupid” defense.

You’ve heard “force flick”, “force backhand, “force sideline”, “force middle”, “straight up”. “Force Stupid” is my favorite. It means:

“Let’s just hang in there on defense long enough so the
offense will do something bone-headed.”

When is this realistically an option? When does a point last long enough for stupidity to dominate the point?

When there’s wind.

And, while “stupid” is a bit uncharitable, it’s really just hyperbole for this constellation of symptoms:

• Impatience

• Lack of focus

• Ego Intrusion

Let’s do some quick math. Suppose a team only makes 100% throws. Well, they’ll score every point. Which is basically how high-level Ultimate works. There aren’t many turnovers.

But, let’s suppose, in our beginner/low-intermediate setting, we lose concentration. Now, a windy point could last 2 minutes. Maybe 10, if you’re dealing with gale-force winds or two teams who are terrible. So, imagine that instead of making 100% throws, the offense gets impatient, and starts making 80% throws, thinking:

“Yeah, I can definitely be the hero here and end the point. Fuck all this patient decision-making. Let me break out a shitty hammer or throw through 3 defenders. I mean, it never works at training, but, hey, it’s only Regionals. Maybe it will work here!”

So, we do some “Leeeeroooy Jennnnkinnns” back-of-the-envelope calculations. Obviously, I picked 80% because that’s 0.8, which is conveniently, 2^3/10. That makes exponentiating it pretty easy (nah, I lie; I always lose track after 65,536).

After:

• 1 throw: 80% of retaining possession

• 2 throws: 64%

• 3 throws: 51%

• 4 throws: 41%

• 5 throws: 32%

• 6 throws: 26%

• 7 throws: 21%

• 8 throws: 17%

• 9 throws: 13%

• 10 throws: 11%

At my last Regionals, we played a Zone offense point, and threw over 80 throws before scoring. 4 straight minutes of flawless offense. The other team IMMEDIATELY gave up zone for Lent.

If we had chosen 80% throws, what’s the probability that we would have scored?

• After 80 throws: .000002%

• 6-ball LOTTERY permutation is 4x more likely: .000008%

It’s really very straightforward.

Zone O is about tiring out the cup. The cup is the stupidest invention in Ultimate. It turns 3 people into dogs, chasing a thrown disc around. The equation is simple. The disc moves faster than the dogs humans. Throw a few times back and forth across the width of the pitch. After 20 throws, you’ve gone across the pitch 10 times. That’s 370m. If each throw takes 3 seconds, that’s a 65-second 400m pace.

After 40 throws, that’s a 2:10 800m pace. Just off the world-record 800m pace in the 1850’s.

The problem? Even making 90% throws, the chance of still having the disc after 20 throws is 12%. After 40 throws? A paltry 1.5%. With 95% throws, your chance of still having the disc after 40 throws rises to 13%. With 98% throws, it’s a coin-flip. With 99% throws, it goes up to 67%.

When we talk about being “smart”, we talk about people who are willing to making 99% throws, which is a combination of throwing unglamorous dumps, the discipline to reset the disc instead of always going for yardage, the awareness to see the defense, and the patience to only take good forward throws. You sacrifice personal glory and selfishness for the team to win.

It’s not about flash. Not at our level. It’s not about nutmeg’ing the mark with a nifty inside break that just speeds through the bidding hands of the short deep and weak-side wing, now collapsed in a heap while admiring the crispiness of your throwas it lands perfectly in the hands of a cutting receiver. We don’t have the skill for that to work more than one time out of 9,000 attempts. So, please don’t subject the rest of your team to those odds.

Do the easy shit. Take what the defense gives you.

Just remember: “How long can you chase a disc?”