On March 7th, Google LLC filed its Proposed Final Judgment, i.e., its proposed antitrust remedy, shortly after the DOJ filed its opposing Proposed Final Judgment antitrust remedy.
Envision this DOJ/Google remedy process something like a high-stakes poker game of top proven professional players who are studying their opponents for ‘tells’ i.e., uncontrolled body, facial, spoken, or behavior signals that ‘tell’ what a rival is most likely thinking, feeling, or doing.
In the main section of Google’s remedy proposal, Part III “Prohibited Conduct,” it committed to the prohibition of 10 similar licensing conducts that Google will not license if the court followed Google’s proposal.
DOJ proposes the court require that Google must license and syndicate its search index information and Text-ad data to potential rivals at marginal or no cost to restore competition.
Remarkably Google repetitively committed to not do this same conduct.
For the first 4 conducts “Google shall not enter into any agreement with a mobile device manufacturer, that conditions the licensing of” …
For the next 6 conducts “Google shall not enter into any agreement with a mobile device manufacturer, or wireless carrier that conditions… the license of… [various Google Apps, products or services.]
First, it’s clear Judge Mehta is going to back the DOJ’s remedy and require that Google share its search index information and text-ad data with potential rivals, to restore competition.
Second, a lax Google antitrust remedy without information licensing, isn’t happening because Judge Mehta knows it would counter-productively impede restoration of competition and disastrously cement Google’s current Info-Data monopoly and monopsony by default, which in turn would practically ensure Google to become America’s likely AI monopoly and monopsony by antitrust default going forward.
Third, Google’s remedy proposal repeatedly focused on a mobile device manufacturer, or wireless carrier above all other potential rivals because Google accurately discerns that those industries have especially longstanding, close, trusted, direct relationships with their customers.
The last thing Google wants to happen in the marketplace is for Google to potentially be disintermediated by another industry from its customers. Google’s track record has successfully disintermediated over half of the economy’s industries. Google demands to be the economy’s universal commoditizer, and to never be its commodity.
Counter-intuitively Google’s biggest competitive threat when Judge Mehta’s remedy of sharing its Search index and Ad-data with potential rivals becomes the norm, their biggest disintermediation threat are those that are in between Google and the customer.
For mobile device manufacturers, Apple and its 2.7 billion users is Google’s biggest long-term competitive threat because Apple is at a strategic crossroads requiring it to begin developing some foundational search engine and AI capability in-house, if it wants to continue to control and master the whole Apple way experience for users.
Apple needs to be true to itself, because its competitors, Samsung and Motorola are Android loyal and dependent.
For Wireless Carriers, AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile USA, and Cellco Partnership/Verizon Wireless are direct sellers to the consumer and AT&T & Verizon users are 70% Apple, and T-Mobile USA users are 50% Apple.
These direct customer relationships and Apple-aligned manufacturing provide wireless carriers with more info-data competitive and economic opportunities than most other industries.
Google’s tells are telling us a lot now on how this all will play out going forward.
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