Investing in the AI Age: SPCX

Welcome 👋🏽

I’ve narrowed down my long-term AI plays. Over the next several weeks, I’ll be dropping my allocation strategy for each of them along with entry prices, exit prices, circuit breakers.

This week - the play is Space X (SPCX).

I know what you’re thinking.

The question is not whether to allocate to SPCX. Every retail investor has already allocated or is planning to allocate. The question is what is the right price?

Because, let’s be honest. A -50% pullback looks very attractive…to some folks.

and I have no doubt that we’ll start seeing chart crime like this all over the timeline 👇🏽

Cold Blooded Shiller@ColdBloodShill

$SPCX channel broken.

3:35 PM · Jul 28, 2026 · 28K Views

21 Replies · 10 Reposts · 217 Likes

from folks that probably look like this in real life…

But I digress.

I want to be clear that the plays I’m laying out will be either:

set and forget in my long-term portfolio (irrespective of volatility)

and/or

allocate to in my eToro portfolio for several years (taking into account macro conditions, price targets etc)

I haven’t allocated to any ETFs (yet), but I’ve already outlined my ETF picks here.

Despite the bullishness on the timeline, we are currently going through a deteriorating macro environment, that is all but confirmed with

1. a rising USD

2. a global rate hiking cycle

3. higher inflation OR higher unemployment

4. falling liquidity

On that basis, I’m not in a rush to allocate.

Please re-read that, because once you see the price targets, you’ll understand that I don’t expect price to come to my levels immediately.

Before Space X completed its initial public offering, I shared that the IPO price would mean that it was trading at a revenue multiple ~6x higher than TSLA. This was purposely meant to give us an idea of the premium we would be paying for a “shiny new Elon Musk play”.

Here is the updated comparison, some ~2 months post-IPO.

In relative terms, SPCX is still~7x more expensive than TSLA - let’s call this the “Moon boy premium”….because the mission is to colonise the moon… and also it’s priced like a memecoin.

First, let me preface this by highlighting that historically speaking, Mega IPOs do not do well 12 months out from their listing date 👇🏽

Those that have done well (see those that are green in the last column) are exceptions because they listed into supportive macro environments, such as:

• 2020 during unprecedented liquidity injections; and

• 2023 after markets had already endured record inflation, rapid rate hikes and equity drawdowns of 20-40%, and started to recover.

Second, we can gauge retail interest by reviewing the ETF inflows into SPCX. It has basically flatlined since 22 June 2026 👇🏽

…and price has been down only ever since 👇🏽

Now, let me reiterate a few things I believe profoundly:

I WILL BE A BUYER OF SPCX.

ELON MUSK IS THE MODERN DAY TONY STARK.

NEVER BET AGAINST ELON MUSK.

OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME, AN INVESTMENT IN ELON WILL YIELD A POSITIVE RETURN.

However, with all that said:

SPCX and TSLA trade like high beta tech stocks and akin to BTC, ETH, and SOL.

and we know that Elon stocks can trade -50%, -60% or even -75% down, depending on the macro environment.

..and the current macro regime is not conducive to a high beta rally (more on this later)

Thirdly, only 5% of SPCX stock are available to purchase right now 👇🏽

This means 95% are locked.

This also means that 5x more shares (than are available today) will be unlocked and available for trading in early August.

By the end of October we will have 12x more shares on the market than we do today. We can fully expect to have a clear and sustained source of selling pressure until at least June 2027.

So, with those three points we can take a deep breath, rub our ear lobes..

..and recognise that we do not have to be in a rush to allocate.

Space X is at a $1.5T valuation with $19B in revenue over the last 4 quarters. This is not exactly “a steal”.

I recently watched The Economist’s interview with Elon Musk and he’s all but told us point blank that there is effectively no rush to allocate.

SpaceX is making investments today with a 10-15 year horizon, and actively committing capital to make a Moon and Mars base rather than prioritising short-term quarterly results.

In fact, they were explicit in the prospectus 👇🏽

Don’t get me wrong - this is admirable and why I want to invest in the first place, but that alone should tell us that we can bide our time with this trade.

Now, let’s move onto the macro and allocation strategy👇🏽