What’s the Most Plausible Scenario for $6 Gas?

As subscribers know, my “Nightmare Scenario” for the Iran war begins with Americans paying $6 a gallon for gasoline.

But what is the most plausible pathway from where we are now to $6?

That is the question I’ve been working through over the past several days. Last night, I identified what I believe is the most likely scenario—and it is not the scenario most people are talking about.

This afternoon at 3:30 PM ET, I’ll walk through that scenario and explain why it matters for the trajectory of the Iran war, the global oil market, and the political risks facing the United States.

I’ll also revisit my recent Global Brief Live conversation with world energy expert Jeff Currie, using the remarkable new visual briefing created by one of our founding subscribers. I’ll show you where our earlier analysis has held up, what has changed, and what I now think is most likely to happen next.

This will be a new strategic assessment, not a replay of the Currie conversation.

I’ll walk through the evidence, explain the pathway I think deserves the most attention, and then take your questions live.

For paid subscribers.

You’ll automatically receive the viewing link 15 minutes before the briefing begins. If you can’t join live, you’ll receive the recording afterward so you can watch on your own schedule.

Bring your questions. I’ll see you this afternoon.