#202615 - priceactiontds - weekly update

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

The world economy is fucked. No matter how you look at it, this Oil shock is real and here to stay. Even if they end it tomorrow, the amount of production that is missing will take weeks to months to get shipped again. Israel won’t back off either. They want more land and they will take it, whatever it takes.

2026-03-22, me

The above pictures are most likely the most important ones as of now. Both are obviously correlated and markets have front-run them to the most extreme degree. Equity markets are now saying that valuations are better than before the war started, while Oil is trading at decade-highs or above ath. I wrote it 4 weeks ago, in between and I will repeat it happily every day, the world economy is beyond fucked with Oil above 80$.

“Peace”-talks just went without much progress and it’s hard to imagine them coming together over the next 3-5 day. I do not see these positions achievable for the Iranians and I say that as someone who thinks they are probably 90%+ right about literally everything they said or wrote the past 4 weeks. The US government destroyed the deal Obama made, killed over 100 school children and now they conceded to everything and then some, making the previous deal worse? Oh and US troops are still moving towards Iran.

Make it make sense.

Whatever you believe is correct, I think the invalidation of my thesis is straight forward. Once more than 30+ daily ships pass the straight again, we can assume Oil is flowing again and Oil markets have to come down. Then I am very wrong and this war is most likely over for good.
But boi if those talks fail and the straight is closed a couple more days, many places will begin to run dry. Literally. What do you think will happen then? My money is on the short side.

Markets can ignore all of it until it really happens and keep front-running it. In that case, I have wide stops and I’m prepared to add higher. Inflation markers are going up in a straight line while global GDP numbers are barely positive. The US GDP dropped from 4.4% in Q3 2025 to 0.5% in Q4. Now add 3%+ cpi to that AND A FUCKING 5.8% to 5.9% DEFICIT.

Oil above 80$ means the global economy is fucked.

I will die on that hill. I’m early. I don’t know how early but last week was proof I am. That does not make me wrong. If you think my weekly outlook was wrong and trading it was shit, well “fuck you, pay me”. My room has not had a single losing week this year.

Was wrong last week but stops were fine. Turned long early Monday night and turned the losses into profits. Oil prints only tails below 96, which is bad, I mentioned that. I will use the russel2000 as my weekly guidance because this mf is as overbought as can be and shorting it has one of the best r:r profiles I have seen in a long time. Will me really make new ath due to front-running the end of the war? I highly doubt that but can’t rule it out so my stops are 2850. Given that I expect us to hit at least 2200, That trade is fucking fire. Even if you do not expect 2200, a pullback is overdue and if the talks fail over the weekend, we could easily gap down and fill the gap to 2560 which is 840 ticks. The 50% retracement for the move is 2540 and remember, close is always close enough.

dax futures: Max bearish. If both all war parties report a peace-treaty, I am wrong but so be it. I do think talks will fail, no ships through the straight and Oil prices will go ballistic over the next 2 weeks. Bears argue we re-tested the breakout price area around 24400 and on the weekly tf they argue that we had W1 and this is W2, which is not the strongest argument. Bulls front-run if to the max and then some. They know above 24500 more bears will cover and we could get a third leg up, which could very well bring a new ath, which is insanity but it’s what markets do more often than anyone can imagine. If talks fail, I doubt we make new lows until oil makes another 20% from here (wti at 96.57).

nasdaq e-mini futures: Same as dax. I expect the talks to fail and markets to go into risk-off mode again. Yes, same shit as last week and again, yes - I can be wrong about it again. Have a stop in place and learn to live with it. This move is beyond overdone and the 50% retracement is at 24180. I expect at least a quick dip to 25000. Last thing I expect is a new ath and honestly, shorts here with stop 27k are as good as they come.

ftse: Max bearish. Won’t repeat myself. Expecting no new ath and at least 10k over the next 2-3 weeks.

wti crude oil futures: The market makers or whoever can absolutely crash shorts again and drop this 10% or more. But the reality is, we are looking at the biggest Oil shock in history by a large margin. I would not be surprised, if this goes to 150+.

I wrote it couple of times now and I still think this is true. Only new lows below 90 would make me seriously doubt that thesis. So until Oil makes lower lows again, long the pullbacks. We are looking down the biggest supply shock in history. Buckle the fuck up.

gold: Neutral. Logic says long but it should already be higher and it’s not. I’m not touching this but if you would force me for a guide, buy 4500 and sell 5000.

bitcoin: Bearish. Right at the big bear trend line from ath and it’s do or die for bulls. If they fail to break out, we will most likely see another strong leg down over the next 3-6 weeks which could bring us 35000. Makes me wet just thinking about it. No position.

comment: Max bearish. If all war parties report a peace-treaty, I am wrong but so be it. I do think that also the next talks will fail, almost no traffic through the straight and Oil prices will go ballistic over the next 2 weeks. Bears argue we re-tested the breakout price area around 24400 and on the weekly tf they argue that we had W1 and this is W2, which is not the strongest argument. Bulls front-run if to the max and then some. They know above 24500 more bears will cover and we could get a third leg up, which could very well bring a new ath, which is insanity but it’s what markets do more often than anyone can imagine. If talks fail, I doubt we make new lows until oil makes another 20% from here (wti at 96.57).

current market cycle: monthly tf bull trend in jeopardy - bulls need to keep the trend line alive. daily close below 22000 is confirmation of the end and we will be in a bear trend and also in most likely a bigger trading range from the 2020 lows to 25k ath.

key levels for next week: 22000 - 24500

bull case: Bulls got more than most dreamed of. 3 straight week of gains into the biggest Oil crisis the world has ever seen. They want more because the pain trade is likely still up. A daily close above 24500 would most likely make more bears cover and it would be a close above the breakout price area and also above the weekly 20ema. Many many reasons why they want above and also why bears rejected it so far. From a macro perspective everyone and their dog knows this rally is moronic and with Oil keeping at the highs time runs against the bulls. Only real bullishness will come from a solid agreement from all war parties and 30-50+ daily straight crossings.

Invalidation is below 23500

bear case: My two-legged (abc) correction was perfectly drawn but it was not was I was hoping for. Bears are in do or die mode here below the breakout area. They can still argue it’s a normal two-legged pullback on the weekly chart and it was W2 but that argument is weak at best as of now. They have all the reasons on their side to turn again. Talks went nowhere, Oil will likely close above 100$ again tomorrow and markets have all the reason to sell-off again. That does not mean they will though. The 50% retracement is around 23850 which will be my first target on futures open. Below that bears have to close the gap to 23450 and if they can manage that, they have a good chance of going lower again. How low? I highly doubt we make new lows unless Oil goes really ballistic and above 120+. So selling above 24000 and buying 23000 will be my main focus until Oil rips or US invades.

Invalidation is above 23600

short term: 3 weeks of nasty squeezing, can they get a 4th? I highly doubt that after the failed talks. I would not be surprised if we would see an escalation “to show force” and something something “art of the deal”. Full bear mode for me if I see weakness.

medium-long term - update 2026-04-04: The headlines will dictate the direction. My base case is the world is completely fucked with Oil this high and 20+% Oil production not being delivered. We could see dax 20000 over the next days/weeks and ultimately even a print below 19000. If we get there, buy with both hands and then some more. I expect big bulls beginning to scale in close to 20000 and they would add on the way lower.

comment: Same as dax. I expect the talks to fail and markets to go into risk-off mode again. Yes, same shit as last week and again, yes - I can be wrong about it again. Have a stop in place and learn to live with it. This move is beyond overdone and the 50% retracement is at 24180. I expect at least a quick dip to 25000. Last thing I expect is a new ath and honestly, shorts here with stop 27k are as good as they come.

current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart

key levels for next week: 23000 - 25700

bull case: 10% in 2 weeks. What more could you ask for? This is overdone. Bulls front-ran the peace talks while the reality is, nothing, absolutely nothing changed compared to two weeks ago. Maybe less bombing. Oil is not flowing as it should be, bulls could squeeze more but it’s so beyond stupid that I can not come up with any reason why this should continue. Yes it can, yes I can be wrong again. Buying for a new ath while Oil is above 90$ is the same as buying Tesla above 100 p/e. Cool if you made money but most of the time when you take these trades you will go “what the fuck was I thinking” afterwards.

Invalidation is below 25900

bear case: Won’t repeat everything I wrote for dax. Bears have the news and should make this a nasty reversal and going for the lows again. I doubt we will make new ones though. First targets are 24900, body gap 24370 and then 24000. Even if bulls would squeeze it further, I would hold onto shorts until Oil drops meaningfully below 80 again.

Invalidation is above 25800

short term: Full bear mode. Should see a giant reversal from the 10% short squeeze. No longs.

medium-long term - Update from 2026-04-05: Bear trend target 20000 if the war continues. Lowest I can see it going, if we get a deep recession, is 18000 - 19000. W3 could take us to 20000-21000 next. Big bois will begin scaling in around 20000, you can bet the house on it but you shouldn’t. If things turn real bad, this could go on for many months, maybe until US mid-terms.

The first weekly loss in ticks but 3 swings which will be up big fucking time when futures open. Lets. Fucking. Go.

That’s it for today, have a profitable week and all the best to you.

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