#202613 - priceactiontds - weekly update

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

The world economy is fucked. No matter how you look at it, this Oil shock is real and here to stay. Even if they end it tomorrow, the amount of production that is missing will take weeks to months to get shipped again. Israel won’t back off from either. They want more land and they will take it whatever it takes.

I will keep the above quote from last week because it will likely stay with us for a couple more months. Reality has set in. The US started the war and knows only escalation. Markets pump on orange cunt’s lies but each one get’s more shallow. Wild times when the Iranian side is more trustworthy and accurate than the US.

So where do we go from here? No one knows. Don’t pretend you do. The only two things that are certain right now are

• every bear trend has strong bull rallies in between because the big bois are always scaling in and out of positions

• Oil above 100$ means the world economy is fucked.

nq targets in order 24000, 23500, 23000

sp500 6500, 6350, 6000

dax 23000, 22700/22500, 22000

US markets have a more room to fall, given that dax already is only 4% above the 50% retracement from 2025-04. Nq still has 10% to go.

Last week I wrote about the death of hope. This week confirmed it big time. You don’t get more bearish after this week’s drop. Sure we can go a bit lower but when was the last time the nasdaq printed more than 4 consecutive bear days and dropped more than 6% ? 2026-02 for 6 days and -7%. Before that? No fucking clue. Futures did not even print more consecutive bear days during the covid lows. We dropped more but not longer. So the obvious target for nq is 23000, futures are at 23328 and cash is at 23132 so maybe futures do not even touch it but who knows. I would not get bearish here for more than a scalp. My preferred path is another prolonged sideways movement for the next weeks like we saw for all of February and most of March. W5 will only happen if the US puts boots on the ground. You don’t have to get long right now but if you get short now, don’t cry like a little bitch when the bulls squeeze you.

dax futures: Neutral. I do think we will dip some below 22000 just to run stops but I would only look for longs there for another bounce. W4 was a bit too short imo. More oscillating around 22500 seems more reasonable to me here. Monday could start as another huge down move and if the markets bleed bad enough, I expect another big TACO tweet.

nasdaq e-mini futures: Neutral. Same as dax. I doubt W3 here goes much further than 23000. I have a measured move target here and it’s also a possible decent looking channel. My plan from weeks ago was W5 to around 21000 and I still think it’s valid. If we flush early on Monday, I expect a big bounce.

ftse: Bearish. Shorts still need a stop 10450 though. I expect at least 9400 to get hit. Continue shorting 10000 until it stops working.

wti crude oil futures: Market continues to test 100 but knows only failure. Can’t expect it to melt through just yet. You do not have to trade this. Longs only below 93 for me with stop 84.

gold: Still thinking longing below 4500 makes more sense than selling but stop has to be at least 3900 because chances are high that we might test 4000. Still not trading this.

bitcoin: Bearish. W5 could have started already and could bring us down to 50000 or even 40000. It’s the 6th consecutive red month. Market has never printed 7 in a row though.

comment: Neutral. I do think we will dip some below 22000 just to run stops but I would only look for longs there for another bounce. W4 was a bit too short imo. More oscillating around 22500 seems more reasonable to me here. Monday could start as another huge down move and if the markets bleed bad enough, I expect another big TACO tweet. Depending on how you draw the bull trend line from the 2022 lows, we are either close or touched it. That means we also passed the 50% retracement for the bull trend after the 2025-04 lows. Every bull dreamed of this pullback for 10 months and one can not remain too bearish down here. Sure we could dip below 22000 but I expect much more sideways movement until we either get a ceasefire and real talks or a big escalation like US boots on Iranian ground. Also xetra already dipped below and printed 21863 so betting on futures doing the same is weird at best.

current market cycle: monthly tf bull trend in jeopardy - bulls need to keep the trend line alive

key levels for next week: 21000 - 23300

bull case: There will be bulls buying this 50% retracement and 22000 on xetra, thinking we can at least do sideways between 22000-23000, which translates to futures 22200-23200. The big bull trend line and the 50% retracement are likely the reason dax did not make new lows last week and went sideways. Bulls want to turn the market neutral with another flat week and go sideways. Any print above 23300 would be amazing for them, because it would mean higher highs again.

The green ABC is the potential path if we get a ceasefire confirmed by Iran.

Invalidation is below 21700

bear case: Last week I made the case for the 50% retracement being a bad spot for shorts and we would likely see W4 and we are in it. Maybe this one is much shorter than the first and we see a quick W5 spike but even then I would rather look for longs below 22000. The bear channel is tight so bears are strong but most bears will not force anything at this big trend line. Any print below 21900 would surprise me and I would then favor the quick W5 thesis. This will most likely be the first month closing below the monthly 20ema since 2023. Let that sink in a bit.

Invalidation is above 23500

short term: Sideways to up most likely.

medium-long term - update 2026-03-29: 22000 hit so I can only see a prolonged bear trend, if the war escalates, oil >= 100$. In that case, we will see 20000 or lower this year. If the us chickens out, my best guess is a big triangle with higher lows and lower highs on the monthly chart. So staying above 19700 and below 25800.

comment: Neutral. Same as dax. I doubt W3 here goes much further than 23000. I have a measured move target here and it’s also a possible decent looking channel. My plan from weeks ago was W5 to around 21000 and I still think it’s valid. If we flush early on Monday, I expect a big bounce. Headlines will continue to dictate this. Any reasonable ceasefire/talks headline will likely make most bears cover.

current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart - bear trend on the daily chart

key levels for next week: 22800 - 24800

bull case: Bulls want to print a bottom and bounce. W3 targets are met and many bulls will scale in, thinking we will print 24000 again for sure. I doubt we will go much above 24400 unless we get a ceasefire. Many bulls will buy any new low just in case we got more rumours where bears cover. Technically many bulls can also see the channel as I have drawn it and the measured move target from W1 is 23000. So close is always close enough.

Invalidation is below 22800

bear case: Bears want to print 23000 and probably a bit more to grab the liquidity below. I doubt they will fight for much lower though. Market is also at the monthly 20ema so we have multiple reasons for bears to take profits and for bulls to begin scaling in. Oil has also not advanced above 100$ besides Sunday night spikes. Bears want to keep it below 24800 otherwise W4 would go too high and that would be really bad for the bear trend.

Invalidation is above 24800/25000

short term: Can not become bearish down here. Sure we can dip below 23000 but I would only look for longs here. I will only trade my drawn channel.

medium-long term - Update from 2026-03-15: Same as dax. 50% retracement is the next big target which is 22000. I expect it to get hit over the next weeks.

That’s it for today, have a profitable week and all the best to you.

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