Weekly Playbook: July 27

1. Market Overview

2. Research Unpacked: TSLA, GOOGL, MMM, MSCI, SMCI, T, TMO, LMT and CHTR

3. Earnings to Watch This Week: GLW, STX, ARM, HOOD, META, MSFT, NBIS (unconfirmed), QCOM, AAPL, AMZN, COIN and ABBV

We already know that trunks haters are quickly identified when the tide goes out. Funny discoveries in the swimming community.

Another funny discovery: swimming beats hiking almost 2:1 worldwide in terms of people involved. However, it takes only one to rule (and identify) them all. Right, Kevin?

Earnings season is already at full speed, with one of the two busiest weeks ahead. Last week gave us an early preview. The market had far more questions for those funding the AI buildout than for those supplying it. Alphabet and Tesla helped wipe roughly $800 billion from the Magnificent Seven on Thursday, while semiconductors still managed to finish the week higher. The spending is clearly welcome. The bill, apparently, is not. The sellers book the revenue today. The buyers get the bill today, while the expense gets spread over years. Free cash flow doesn't get that luxury.

With four more heavyweights reporting next week, we'll soon find out whether Thursday was just a one-day reaction or the beginning of something bigger. And the last thing you want to see with your pedal to the metal is a speed bump. Right, Kevin?

CME rate hike odds briefly climbed to 39.8% yesterday before pulling back to 34.2%. Still a surprisingly high probability for seeing something you didn’t mean to, regardless of the water temperature. Just a week earlier, CME odds were below 12%. By Thursday, September hike odds had reached roughly 80%.

Polymarket points lower. Even so, at roughly a quarter, a quarter-point hike could still be a low blow few are truly prepared for.

Personally, I’d happily take the 75% odds of no change, keep my sleep and process steady, and focus on earnings and stock reactions without unnecessary distractions. On the other hand, one man’s shock is another man’s opportunity.

Then there are real yields. The 10-year TIPS yield is back above 2.4%, while TLT losing its key weekly BSL that was highlighted multiple times. Let's see if the next one is any different.

One more thing worth keeping an eye on: the Japanese yen is back at its weakest level in nearly 40 years. Last summer reminded everyone how quickly a carry-trade unwind can turn into a sell-first, ask-questions-later event. It doesn't need to happen. But neither did August 2024 until it did.

So get your hiking shoes ready, just in case. Like Liverpool fans say: You’ll Never Walk Alone. Especially given how crowded this market is.

Right, Kevin?

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Below is this week’s Price Action Playbook: Research dump

Let’s look at the logic behind some of those areas:

Tesla’s Q2 results highlighted a widening gap between demand growth and near-term profitability. Record second-quarter deliveries, the largest order backlog since 2023, and rising FSD adoption demonstrated continued commercial momentum, but lower vehicle pricing compressed automotive gross margin excluding credits to 16.3%, while operating margin fell to 1.4% and free cash flow turned negative. Management also expects 2026 CapEx to exceed $25 billion as investment accelerates across Robotaxi, Optimus, semiconductor capacity, solar manufacturing, and AI compute. The fundamental discussion is therefore shifting toward whether Tesla can translate demand and software adoption into operating leverage while delivering measurable returns from a substantially larger investment cycle.

344 is one of the most important POCs of the last couple of years, reinforced by the 300 IPOx at 340 and a highly reactive weekly UTL from the 2024 lows.

No wonder a clear break of the area triggered snowballing selling pressure, right into the second mentioned support area around 310. There still seems to be a bid despite trading below it for most of Friday, as the stock managed to close back above it.

Alphabet’s Q2 results reinforced that AI is accelerating demand across both Search and Cloud, with Search advertising revenue growing 17% and Cloud revenue rising 82% as backlog reached $514 billion. That growth is requiring an increasingly capital-intensive buildout, however, prompting management to raise FY26 CapEx guidance to $195–205 billion as third-party capacity, depreciation, and energy costs weigh on near-term margins and free cash flow. The fundamental discussion is therefore shifting from whether AI demand exists to whether Alphabet can convert its infrastructure investments and expanding backlog into durable earnings growth and stronger cash generation.

323 is where the weekly TRL from the early 2025 high met the 200d MA, while the bigger layer sits at 317, the POC for the last year of trading or so, with the 75 IPOx slightly above at 318.75.

Let’s see whether bulls can hold the area, reclaim the MA and recover some losses. Of course, if there are any bulls left. At this point, it’s not about how profitable GOOGL is or how much it spends on capex. It’s about how many participants are trapped at higher prices. Place your bets.