Gold, Japan, IBM, Google, and ETF Updates

You may have noticed that the mainstream financial media is now preaching the newfound religion of international diversification.

Last year, the MSCI all-country world ex-U.S. index surged 29% in US dollar terms, posting its best performance in more than a decade and speeding past the S&P 500’s 16% gain.

Our recent adding of a Japanese ETF to the portfolio was well timed as Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, gambled on snap election and achieved a landslide win with a two-thirds supermajority. The Nikkei 225 hit new records in the days following her win.

It is not just China’s central bank that is stockpiling gold. Chinese investors purchased over 400 metric tons of gold bars and coins in 2025, a 28% jump from the year before and nearly a third of global purchases in retail category, according to the World Gold Council.

Meanwhile, Beijing has been reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds over the last decade from $1.3 trillion to about $700 billion. China is the third-largest foreign holder of Treasuries, after Japan and the UK. Japan is the top buyer, with $1.2 trillion. Foreign investors hold about 30% of total U.S. debt.

Do you still pay attention to the Dow Jones Industrial index?

You may be showing either your age or your intelligence. At the end of 2024, about $113 billion in assets was indexed to the Dow, while $13 trillion that was indexed to the S&P 500. Some are mixing ETFs that track each index for diversification which I think is a good idea.

Another trend that has dramatically changed are capital and labor markets. In 1985, tech stalwart IBM (IBM) was America’s most valuable companies and among its largest employers, with a payroll of nearly 400,000. Today, Nvidia (NVDA) is nearly 20 times as valuable, and five times as profitable as IBM was in 1985, adjusted for inflation.

Yet Nvidia employs only 10% as many people today as IBM in 1985.

Finally, another major change for IBM is that in 1985 ,about 60% of its employees were based in America, now it is estimated to be around 30% with employees based in India larger than those based in America. The crossover point appears to have occurred in 2018.

India is becoming a target for American AI giants looking to tap to the country’s savvy technology talent. The Indian government is gifting these firms a 20-year tax break on overseas revenue generated from global data services based in India. In October, Google announced a $15 billion investment in data centers in southeastern India, as well as undersea cable links, in its “largest single AI hub outside the U.S.”

Despite Alphabet’s (GOOG) ample stash of cash, it is going on a borrowing binge like many of the other hyper scalers. It is issuing a rare 100-year bond like IBM’s during the dotcom era and is issuing bonds in British pounds and Swiss francs.

Google announced last week more than 750 million monthly active users just on its Gemini App. Alphabet’s stock price has jumped around 20% in the past three months. Google Cloud turned in a record $5.3 billion in operating profit in the latest quarter, 45% higher than even Wall Street’s aggressive targets.

Finally, a performance overview of Independent Wealth ETF recommendations is way overdue. Become a member today to get the tickers for these ETFs as well as access to our stock recommendations.

XXXX is a new recommendation and is up 17.9% over the last year as the franc strengthened and the dollar weakened. A great currency hedge.

XXXX fund stands out for its sound investment process and strong management team. It was up 19.7% over the past year.

XXXX was up 13.8% over the last year plus a 4% dividend. Its screen is companies with at least 10 years of consecutive dividend growth.

XXXX has been a big winner up 48% over the past six months and 80% over the last year and offers direct exposure to both platinum and palladium.

XXXX tracks an index of top defense contractors and is up 68% over the past year.

XXXX is a relatively new addition and is up 21% over the past six months. I have known this fund for a long time, and it offers exposure to value, international, and small cap stocks.

XXXX basket of junior miners is up 93% in the last six months and 170% over the last year. You may want to take partial profits.

XXXX is up a consistent 12% over the last six months and 24% over the last year. A smart way to play emerging markets.

XXXX is up 21% in the last six months and over 14% so far in 2026.