ES Maven | Third Inside Day — ES Is Waiting for the Match to Be Lit

Three inside days.

Price continues to compress, ranges are tightening, and neither side has taken control. This isn’t a market without direction; it’s a market waiting for a catalyst.

And we’re about to get several of them.

Tomorrow morning brings core PCE and the latest Q2 GDP estimate at 8:30 AM ET, followed later in the day by Nvidia earnings after the closing bell. Nvidia alone has the potential to create a significant move across the S&P and Nasdaq given its enormous index weight and its importance to the AI trade.

Then we move into Jackson Hole and another cluster of potential market movers, including the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation-expectations readings, the preliminary benchmark payroll revision, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s closely watched Jackson Hole appearance on Friday.

So I’m not surprised ES isn’t doing much.

Why would it?

The market is sitting on its hands because, within the next few sessions, we’re about to get information on inflation, economic growth, employment, the AI trade, and the direction of monetary policy.

Something is going to have to give.

Technically, the third consecutive inside day is creating compression. The longer we remain trapped inside this increasingly tight range, the more interested I become in the eventual expansion out of it.

And when that expansion comes, don’t assume it has to be higher simply because we’re near all-time highs.

We could explode through resistance and launch another leg into price discovery.

Or we could implode through minor support and trigger a much larger corrective rotation.

Either one works for me.

Something is brewing.

And the next 72 hours could get very interesting.

Trade Happy. Risk Wisely.

Anka Metcalf
CEO/Founder
TradeOutLoud.com