After printing an ATH at 7,838.50, ES has spent several sessions rotating lower and allowing the moving averages to catch up. That is not automatically bearish. After the acceleration we saw earlier this month, some consolidation was overdue.
What matters now is where buyers show up.
The chart is sitting in an important technical pocket. Price is testing the rising short-term moving averages while holding above the larger breakout structure. The 7,657.75 area is now minor support, and I consider that the immediate line in the sand.
Hold 7,657, reclaim 7,720.44, and the bulls are back in business.
A sustained move above 7,720 would put the recent high at 7,838.50 directly back in play. Clear that ATH, and ES returns to price discovery, where I’m looking for 7,880 first, followed by 8,000.
On the other hand, a decisive break below 7,657 changes the short-term picture. That would increase the probability of a deeper rotation toward the 50-day SMA and the prior breakout zone around 7,600–7,630.
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