Polling Analysis and Seat Predictions for UK General Elections
More in Common are the first pollster to record a Labour lead in the Burnham era. Polling with fieldwork completed today sees Labour move ahead by 4 points which is the first lead recorded by them since March 2025 and their highest share since November 2024. Post-Makerfield Burnham's
Keiran Pedley   writing for Ipsos asks as Keir Starmer prepares to depart Downing Street, ‘how did it come to this?’  How did someone who won such a landslide majority in July 2024 end up being replaced two years later? How did it all go wrong so
Amidst much talk of an upcoming "Burnham Bounce" for Labour it is noticeable that his personal ratings have gone down. A YouGov/Times survey – conducted on 24-25 June, following Keir Starmer’s resignation – shows that Andy Burnham has taken a hit to
Public opinion towards Starmer's period in Downing Street remains broadly negative; just 14% are satisfied with the way the government has been running the country, compared to 78% who are dissatisfied according to data from Ipsos. 63% of the public disagree that the Starmer government is competent, and
The latest data from Ipsos shows that whilst the Starmer-led government faces intense public criticism, opposition leaders have yet to secure a definitive personal breakthrough with the British electorate. Kemi Badenoch registers the highest individual satisfaction among the leaders asked about at 28%, with 50% dissatisfied, yielding a net score
Pollsters Expect Restore to Cost Reform the Election
Survation has, bravely, conducted a new second poll of the Makerfield constituency. Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 518 adults in the constituency between May 26 and June 1. The survey was done by telephone interview. Targets for the weighted data were derived from Office for National Statistics data
Survation has conducted a telephone poll in the constituency on behalf of Election Data Ltd.* Fieldwork was conducted by telephone among 504 adults in the constituency between 18th and 22nd May 2026. Andy Burnham leads Robert Kenyon by three points in Survation's first poll of the Makerfield by-election,
YouGov surveyed 706 Labour members about Starmer’s performance as PM and his potential challengers. Wes Streeting in a speech today to the House of Commons on his resignation talked about his "rebellious hope". On the basis of the survey he
Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?
According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,
Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -
Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour
Karl Turner, the long-serving Labour MP for Kingston upon Hull East (first elected in 2010 and a local born-and-bred Hull man), is already in open conflict with the Labour leadership. As of today (31 March 2026), he has had the Labour whip suspended after repeated public criticism of Starmer’
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," argued Benjamin Franklin, despite his wise advice time after time surveys show that on civil liberties questions the general public prefer security over liberty. The Survation Policy Intelligence Unit (SPIU)