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The Poll Bludger

Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia

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State polls: Tasmanian EMRS and Queensland Resolve Strategic

A Tasmanian poll offers both federal and state voting intention, while a regular Queensland state poll records a reverse for One Nation.

Friday miscellany: Morgan poll, preselections, NT by-election (open thread)

Labor up and the Greens down in the weekly Morgan poll, Tasmanian Liberal Senators chosen, internal warfare in the SA Liberal Party, and a by-election on the way in the Northern Territory.

DemosAU: Labor 23, Coalition 32, One Nation 22 in Victoria

A new poll suggests a less unpopular leader has done little to lift Victorian Labor three months out from the election.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 28, One Nation 26, Coalition 23 (open thread)

No change whatsoever in voting intention in the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which features further questions on budget measures and immigration.

UK Clacton parliamentary by-election live

Nigel Farage set for a massive win over Count Binface after resigning to recontest Clacton, but Labour takes the lead in national polls. Three Canadian federal by-elections will be held on August 31.

Federal polls: YouGov and Roy Morgan (open thread)

A volatile poll series finds Labor at a new low, while a more stable one records little change.

Victorian election minus 16 weeks

Two new state polls from Victoria, plus sundry preselection news.

Newspoll: Labor 29, One Nation 29, Coalition 18 (open thread)

The latest Newspoll finds improved personal ratings for Angus Taylor failing to translate on voting intention.

RedBridge Group: Coalition 30, Labor 23, One Nation 22 in Victoria

A poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of last week's leadership change finds Victorian Labor still headed for defeat, with One Nation losing ground.

RedBridge Group: Labor 29, One Nation 31, Coalition 22 (open thread)

One Nation records its best poll result in six weeks, as Labor slumps on various two-party preferred measures.

UK Greater Manchester mayoral by-election live

Labour should hold this mayoralty, but how much will their vote drop from Burnham’s 63.4% in 2024? Also, Trump’s US ratings have dropped to a new low.