Published and forthcoming
Trammell, Philip (2021). “Fixed-point Solutions to the Regress Problem in Normative Uncertainty”. Synthese 198(2): 1177-99. [Link]
Economic Growth under Transformative AI (with Anton Korinek) [Link] – Forthcoming in Annual Review of Economics
Under revision
The Extreme Inefficiency of Expanding Variety in Endogenous Growth Theory [Link] – R&R at JPE: Macro (editor emphasizes outcome still uncertain)
Working papers
Existential Risk and Growth (with Leopold Aschenbrenner) [Link]
Dynamic Public Good Provision under Time Preference Heterogeneity [Link]
Altruism in General Equilibrium [Link]
When GDP Misleads: Inferring Living Standards from the Value of a Statistical Life (with Chad Jones) [Link]
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI (with Ezra Karger (...) and Phil Tetlock) [Link]
The Bounded Parallelizability of R&D: Theory and Application to AI [Link]
The Economics of Recursive Self-Improvement (with Tom Cunningham (...)) [Link]
Rougher papers, in progress or abandoned
Labor, Capital, and Patience in the Optimal Growth of Social Movements (with Nuño Sempere) [Link]
Weak Betweenness and Misleading Information [Link]
New Products and Long-term Welfare [Link]
Workflows and Automation [Link]
Other
Normative Uncertainty, Normalization, and the Normal Distribution [Link]
Simplifying Cluelessness [Link]
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