Aschenbrenner's Receipts

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× In June 2024, Leopold Aschenbrenner published a 165-page essay called Situational Awareness . He committed himself to a chain of dated forecasts. Models would get more processing while producing answers, a method called test-time compute. Power, not chips, would constrain the US AI buildout. The Marcellus shale would power data centres despite climate pledges by the largest cloud companies. By…

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