Dieu, Patrick-Olivier: Predictive Stability Is Not Inferential Stability A Controlled Robustness Benchmark for Multistage Scientific Models

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Scientific models are commonly evaluated by predictive performance, while many physical quantities of interest are inferred indirectly through multistage model architectures. This paper argues that these achievements require distinct robustness tests and that different kinds of model change must not be conflated. Admissible changes are classified as mathematical reformulations (R0), model-form or…

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