Protected: Calmer Waters
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Phanes' Canon
The original words of Phanes, tirelessly carved into a slab of 'No '.
Latest posts
Protected: The Refusal of the Great Lie
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The Next Adventure
In a classic sudden turn of events as things were settling down, someone made an offer I couldn t refuse. I d thrown my name in the hat for a role and interviewed a couple times, and thought they weren t going to make an offer. Then as I m getting settled in at my new gig, the offer [ ]
Escaping the Cursed Forest
My new gig starts Monday. I m almost free. It took five months to the day to break those chains. That s a month for every year. It s not over though. I will need to be in the office with some weekly regularity and the location is in Columbus. I m in Amelia, still, just outside of Cincinnati. [ ]
Protected: A Close Shave
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DPM Redesign and the Realization that every composite operation is stateful.
DPM is in redesign. The title says it all. Every operation consisting of more than one atomic operation is intrinsically stateful, and that makes idempotency harder. On the job front, interviews are ongoing. Crushed a couple of them. Needed the win. Need the job more than I need the win. One of them is in [ ]
SIG, Sklearn, and Batteries
I guess Tetsuo isn t done after all. Quickly: Two days in, on SIG. I can t win. I pulled on a thread, found three things wrong, then production handed me a fourth on the way out the door. First, I m working on a reporting component (that s right, it s called RPT lol) that will help me start [ ]
Premo Lattes, Potato Soup, and Whispered Promises
A picture s worth a thousand words. Now that the new MK8 version of Tetsuo is settling in and self-calibrating, its showing promising numbers, but, with the volatility of the markets these last few years, it would be irresponsible to say it s not just getting dragged up by alpha yet. Deployment is automated so adding in [ ]
The Life, Death, and Rebirth of Tetsuo
It s been a long journey getting here. 2 years of my life. Little to show for it yet. Hundreds of dollars. Hundreds, maybe thousands of hours. Missed sleep. Tired days. 8 generations of architecture. 19 20 AI-generated images of Solaire. Tetsuo MK-VIII is now deployed to my local server running on 18 allocated cores to [ ]
May 14th Testing, Halfway through Winter #3
Late night post but late night news. I ve almost completed the conversion of TETSUO to its MK-8 architecture with the new fixes in. Considering I was only considering what the new version architecture would be on May 1st, that s a pretty good turnaround time. Tetsuo has now gone from the initial one big monolithic thing [ ]
The Return of Mag, and also the exit of Mag
Nothing on the job front, yet. On the fitness front, cubital tunnel caught up to me. Letting that left arm heal pretty solid before I get back on the bar to avoid injury. Though I am shaping up still, so, there s that. Projections say 1-2 months before shit hits the fan without a revenue stream. [ ]
Tetsuo, Agathocles in Carthage, and Campaign Meta-Design
Like some wayward adolescent child, my attention is first drawn to Tetsuo s continued abysmal performance. The new configuration set took effect April 6th: It did a slight dip then went up, but this is largely market beta, as seen by the new dip around April 27th and subtracting pct_mag from SPY movements. There s a little [ ]
The Field of Blood
I m not a bible thumper, by any means at all, but, I do regard both the Abrahamic doctrines and the Gnostic traditions as steeping full of old world wisdom that a great much of is lost to current generations. I often find tropes and themes in them that ring universally true even in modern times. [ ]
April 3rd and Crunchy Shoulders
Woke up this week and the pullups caught up to me. A shoulder that didn t want to do anything and obvious tendon strain. Time to slow down, heal up, and start fresh on Monday on that project. So yesterday, today I m just in recovery. I m certainly shaping up quickly but I can tell the long [ ]
Moar Pull-ups, Mortar and Monitoring
Meat Maintenance is incremental. About once every couple hours I go into the living room gym and do two pull-ups. This is actually progress from when I first started as I couldn t do one without worrying if I d die, looking back at my last post. Technically, I m doing one pull-up and one chin-up, 10 dips, [ ]
Pull-ups, Mortality and Grex
Meat Maintenance So, after turning the living room into a little gym, I ve been mixing things up a bit to get back into shape. Sure, I could get a gym membership, and I still might, but after the last 5 years or so I ve got alot of physical rehab to do to even get to [ ]
Gearing up to Lock In
I guess it s been a little over a month, so, I should record that I m well and alive. The busy period I ve been building up to is about to start. I m genuinely not looking forward to most of that. Part of that has involved a full hardening pass on all SILO projects. I managed to [ ]
Another Pivot, and SAP
Tetsuo is now up 24% from my last post about it. Fantastic! It just keeps getting better. I m still seeing some misses and some flats, though, and this is whole market analysis, so, I was hoping to get better results than that. To remedy that I finally rebuilt the SAP component to actually work and [ ]
Protected: Ides of March VIII: Wrapping up a 1-Year study on NPD Systems
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Protected: Ides of March VII: Expected Discard, Forensic Scrub
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Identity: The Glass Dome
As part of the ongoing research I keep going on the backburner to maintain some aspects of my career, over the last few years I ve run into a strange series of observations that seem to repeat across the digital horizon: Companies are collaborating in ways that can only be a result of coordination and not [ ]
Between, a, uh.. oh, rock and a hard place.
It s been a while. I m low on time so I ll make it short and sweet: I got alot done in December but it s gonna be real, real busy for 2026/Q1.
Protected: Ides of March VI: Structural Engineering for Narrative Isolation, Ally Grooming
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A Bigger Universe, A Brighter Future
So far, Tetsuo is doing rather well, but, as I ve discussed in recent posts, it only pulled maybe 2.5% a week. That s pretty good. Really it is. But that s a leaky faucet. I need it to rain. As also discussed, there needed to be some filters for junk data and it needed to pull both [ ]
Universe Inventory and TDM/R
It s now late Saturday night, technically Sunday morning, and I ve been reviewing the market conditions over the last week, and the actual performance of Tetsuo. First, it s doing well even though it hasn t moved much. The DOW was down 600 points at one point and it made some money, and then when it should have [ ]
Tetsuo MK-VII Goes Live: A New Dawn
Finally! As was expected, once MAG was deployed, getting the rest of the pieces up were trivial and those are burning in as I type this. I did a couple of sanity test runs just to make sure the pieces do what they re supposed to do, and now we ve got a new rather pretty dashboard [ ]
Deploying MAG
MAG is finally ready to deploy and it seems stupidly accurate given how poorly the last generation of tetsuo performed. We won t really know until its been deployed for a while and has been running daily reports to check against, and even that s just an indicator until we re actually placing trades. I m almost giddy but [ ]
MAG: Progress in Sight
It s 05:31 ET. I ve been at it for weeks. We re approaching magnitude accuracy around 70% on highly structured data. That s pretty good, but no telling how consistent it will be until this piece I m currently working on is done cooking. This component is just batshit hard to build and requires insane computing power to test. [ ]
Protected: Ides of March V: Signals and Assemblies
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Protected: Ides of March IV: Environment Shaping
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Death Rattles
My upper respiratory thing has progressed from a fever coming on to a week of roaming around feverishly while my lungs fill. Then it got better. Then it came back. Now I m in between. I didn t get as much done on MAG this weekend as I d hoped, or during the week last week, but I [ ]
MAG, MAG, MAG…
I ended up being sick all weekend and couldn t get much done on MAG. 🙁 What to change for MAG Some solid default params: Minimal MAG forecaster (drop-in shape) Variants worth trying (often help MAG) I just don t have enough time to tie it all together in between all the coughing and sneezing and blech ing.
A Forest Retreat, Kanye the Baptist, and MAG Design
I went to a retreat out in the middle of a forest. It was loads of fun and lots of folks I share a certain association with showed up. It was nice to get away from all the light pollution for a few days and eat lots of food and generally disconnect from the mundane [ ]
Crystalizing the new Design
Diagram says it all really. At this point I m narrowing down dependencies and data flow. This also has the benefit of allowing me to work in state management so that I no longer have to do chained execution and just hope everything works . The pieces will be able to wait on things it can t run [ ]
Signs III
I ve got a rebuild of the SIG tool, I ll call it SIG-R until its been burned in for a while. It s live at: https://sig.silogroup.org Sometimes stuff just clicks together if you hammer it enough. I pulled out multithreading entirely. XGBoost in Python is multithreaded natively so it doesn t behave well if you try to multithread [ ]
Protected: Ides of March III: Fragile Constructions Of Mice and Men
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Signs II
SIG is coming along. It configurates by symbol to use the right features for each individual symbol. It also forecasts for all symbols in inventory. It isn t anywhere near as slow as I thought, but, there are kinks to be on the lookout for. Apparently XGBoost in python doesn t lend itself well to parallelism. I ve [ ]
Sign Forecasting
First, a picture s worth a thousand words: So, I m pretty deep in it for this piece, making it kind of difficult to explain to someone who is not, what they are looking at. Ok, so, the last round of stuff was basically just data layer management. This provided the foundations needed for effective stock forecasting. [ ]
Surprise Data Arrives
Historical EPS and revenue analyst estimates, paired to their earnings announcement, and upsets for that window along with the EPS estimates for the next forecast day, are now automatically refreshed on each trading day at exp.silogroup.org Code quality could be better but this was a unique solution, so, the first 3 versions are going to [ ]
Surprise! Expectations.
Regarding Tetsuo, it s now time for the most important part for this sweep of building: Expectations data surprise calculation, and somehow framing that data in a way that can be used as: This would provide an estimated 5-9% boost in directional accuracy and magnitude forecasting accuracy. The expectations data includes EARNINGS_ESTIMATES function returns from the [ ]
Quantified Sentiment Analysis in Tetsuo SOL
Market sentiment quantification analysis datasets are now updated daily with a collection system I call SAP, at sap.silogroup.org. It updates daily after the trading day closes. I did a priming run of 150 days to kickstart the dataset and it collected over 70,000+ sentiments, already quantified by the vendor s excellent process, and stores them after [ ]
Representation, Intent, and the Problem of Understanding
First, TDM is complete and deployed on a newly rebuilt server, at tdm.silogroup.org There is no frontend, because it s not a frontend component. It s a standalone component meant to operate as part of a distributed system. With the SOL variation of Tetsuo I m taking a productized approach to that component and any others that I [ ]
Distributed Tetsuo
I ve started to revisit the problems needing solved behind tetsuo, learning from previous failures. At this point I have a good proof of concept for how a system like this could be built, without any real concern placed on topology optimization or component responsibility. That can help speed things up for a POC but it s [ ]
Protected: The Ides of March, Part II: Comforting Words, Stinging Deeds
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Engineering Leadership: Signals and Substance
Different kinds of brains are good at different kinds of things.
A Brave New World
Hans, from Frozen, with your Finance Team
Rejuvenated and Restored
My vacation is winding down. It was fun. The ultimate destination was Pensacola Florida. I started out in Cincinnati, Ohio (where I live) at 1800 hours on a Friday. I stopped by Louisville, Kentucky. Then from there, it was Tennessee, by way of Nashville, one of my favorite places on Earth, though I took no [ ]
DPM, DON, and Vacations
Package creation is complete for DPM. I need QA testers. It also needs a wave of cleanup of the output as some of the output can be redundant. But, this is rapid progress nonetheless. For me, anyway. Next needs to be package signing and checksum verification module. These can be bundled into one module. After [ ]
A Month of Picking
So, snapshot time. It s 22:32 EST on a Wednesday. I just brewed a cortado, on my Silvano Evo. The bean is imported from Italy. Grind is fine, using a surprisingly good quality Kitchen Aid grinder. Steamed milk from grass-fed cows. I m in my Prussian blue fleece robe. The dog is outside. It s in the rural [ ]
Packages, Winter, and Progress
It s been a busy couple of weeks. Moving I ve decided to rough it out outside of Cincinnati for another year without moving. I don t want to take the chance if anything goes wrong or shifts, so, I m spending the next year or so getting ready to hop. It ll probably be Pensacola when I do. I [ ]