NY manufacturing continues its rebound/Builder sentiment, as well as buyer traffic, remains muted

The August NY manufacturing index, the first August industrial figure out, rose to 20.6 from 15.6 and continues to reflect the manufacturing rebound after about 3 years of contraction. The estimate was 10 for this very volatile figure month to month.

I still think part of the bounce in manufacturing is the inventory restocking going on, facilitated by the war and supply chains reflect that, with slower deliveries. The Delivery Time component rose 7.6 pts to the most since April 2022 and reflects these longer lead times. Buyers also want to get ahead of any further price increases, whether tariff or war related.

New orders moderated but has been strong since March. Inventories went negative but the six month outlook for them was steady and backlogs jumped. Prices paid at 58.6 remains very high and is 5 pts above its 6 month average but passing higher costs thru is still mixed with prices received dropping to 22.7 vs the 6 month average of 26.1. Employment stayed in line with the half year average.

The six month business outlook was 32.1 vs the 6 month average of 29. The capital spending component was up 1.5 pts to 16.5 and 1.1 pts above its half year average.