Trumps Piggy MOU

On February 28th before the US and Israel launched a Pearl Harbor like surprise attack on Iran in the middle of negotiations that were by all accounts making great progress, who could imagine the US contemplating signing such a MOU 3 1/2 months later?

Not me.

While the US and Israel caused a lot of damage to Iran, killing thousands of civilians and decapitating much of its leadership, it did not force regime change or surrender, and Iran punched back not just at Israel and US assets but those of its Gulf State partners

There was no quick win and Iran used a weapon it had never needed to use before, it closed the Strait of Hormuz.

One would think in such a War the US could outlast Iran and with a Shock and Awe Campaign of missiles and bombs dropped on them that Iran would soon surrender or just fracture in the chaos.

But Iran punched back and refused to fold. The problem is we just don’t have the industrial capacity to wage a long intense war against an enemy that does not jump out of the sand and surrender right away and has missiles and drones that can sting to boot. Insufficient stockpiles of weapons and missile interceptors coupled with long production and delivery times prevents this. You can bet China has taken note.

With Strategic Reserve drawdowns and Trumps market manipulating tactics the economic effects have been somewhat muted thus far, the Reserves are about to hit its effective bottom in 3-8 weeks (which is when only 270 -300 million barrels of sludge are remaining) . Having gas prices go vertical in September ahead of midterms is not an ideal situation even if their blatant election rigging goes according to plan.

So what about this MOU? Despite JD Vance trying to put lipstick on a Pig, this plan looks so politically piggy they dare not release it in print.

We did see something from Iran but we cant rely on that.

Happily the Administration read the deal out loud, and as expected the MOU is simply an agreement to reach a final agreement.

The way I read the transcript, the only thing agreed now is ceasefire, opening the straight now w/o tolls, fully ending blockade on Iran within 30 days and issuing waivers for Iran oil exports. Everything else is just carrots offered to Iran that are pending a final deal that is unlikely to be reached.

The carrots are the piggy parts of the deal. Promises to end sanctions, $300 billion reconstruction fund, returning assets pending a final deal. The piggy parts of the deal (understanding) are unlikely to be realized. Stop whining.

Iran also reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. Trump will argue this pledge is a win since Iran is agreeing it will never have a nuclear weapon but Iran already made this pledge when it signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

The way I see it is Trump is just buying time for 60 days, perhaps extendable past the midterms.

Thats fine with me.

Nothing can take back the terrible decision to attack Iran in the first place, a War the Pentagon is using to request an additional $200 billion and may cost the global economy $2.2 trillion and an estimated 0.3 percent drag on the US gross domestic product (GDP) , and has the Fed considering rate increases rather than rate cuts.

Might be the stupidest thing any President has done. The Piggy MOU works as damage control, no need to waste lipstick on the Pig.

End