Ukraine Brief — 2026-08-30 0013

We assess Russia and Ukraine will very likely continue fighting through winter without implementing a ceasefire before March 2027. Moderate confidence rests on converging military, industrial, and diplomatic indicators: Budanov's 30,000-per-month mobilization floor and winter-fighting commitment, Zelensky's order to triple drone strikes, Russia's tasking of offensive scenarios toward Kyiv and…