A Theory of Economic Slack
This book develops a theory of economic slack and explores how slack shapes markets, business cycles, and policy. Under contract, Princeton University Press.
Pascal Michaillat
Recent content on Pascal Michaillat
Latest posts
Critical Values Robust to P-hacking
This paper builds a model of hypothesis testing with p-hacking and gives critical values that are robust to p-hacking. Published in REStat, 2026.
Minimalist LaTeX Template for Academic Papers
This template produces an academic paper with LaTeX. The template follows typographical best practices and has a minimalist design.
Minimalist LaTeX Template for Academic Books
This template produces an academic book with LaTeX. The template follows typographical best practices and has a minimalist design.
Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier
This paper develops an algorithm that detects US recessions early and accurately by optimally filtering and combining data on unemployment and job vacancies.
Has the Recession Started?
This paper builds the Michez rule, a fast and robust method to detect US recessions from data on unemployment and job vacancies. Published in OBES, 2025.
Minimalist LaTeX Template for Academic CVs
This template produces an academic CV with LaTeX. The template follows typographical best practices and has a minimalist design.
Economic Slack
This graduate course is on the topic of economic slack. It develops a matching model of economic slack to study business cycles and monetary and fiscal policy.
Unemployment
This undergraduate course is on the topic of unemployment. It develops a matching model of unemployment to study labor market fluctuations and policies.
Minimalist Hugo Template for Academic Websites
This template produces a personal academic website with Hugo. The template has a minimalist design and is hosted on GitHub Pages.
Modeling Migration-Induced Unemployment
This paper explains why a wave of in-migration reduces the employment rate of local workers, and why this reduction is larger in bad times.
Beveridgean Phillips Curve
This paper builds a Beveridgean model of the Phillips curve. Prices respond to slack so the divine coincidence holds: prices are stable at full employment.
u* = √uv: The Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment in the United States
This paper finds that the US full-employment rate of unemployment is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates. Published in BPEA, 2024.
Minimalist LaTeX Template for Academic Presentations
This template produces an academic presentation with LaTeX and Beamer. The template follows typographical best practices and has a minimalist design.
LaTeX Commands to Write Math
These commands simplify mathematical writing with LaTeX while automatically respecting the rules of mathematical typography.
Business Cycles and How to Tame Them
This graduate minicourse describes business cycles, develops a matching model to explain them, and discusses how monetary and fiscal policy can tame them.
Minimalist MATLAB Template for Scientific Figures
This template produces scientific figures with MATLAB. The template follow best practices for the visual display of quantitative information.
An Economical Business-Cycle Model
This paper develops a policy-oriented business-cycle model with fluctuating unemployment and long zero-lower-bound episodes. Published in OEP, 2022.
Beveridgean Unemployment Gap
This paper develops a formula for the unemployment gap based on the Beveridge curve. In the US the gap is countercyclical. Published in JPubE Plus, 2021.
Pricing under Fairness Concerns
To explain price rigidity, this paper develops a model in which buyers care about the fairness of markups but cannot observe them. Published in JEEA, 2021.
Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility Function
This paper resolves the New Keynesian model's anomalies at the zero lower bound by introducing wealth in the utility function. Published in REStat, 2021.
Optimal Public Expenditure with Inefficient Unemployment
This paper shows that public expenditure should deviate from the Samuelson rule to reduce the unemployment gap, when it exists. Published in REStud, 2019.
Intermediate Macroeconomics
This undergraduate course covers IS-LM model of business cycles, matching model of unemployment, inflation, and Malthusian and Solowian models of growth.
Persistence of False Paradigms in Low-Power Sciences
This paper develops a model of science. Due to homophily in promotions, false paradigms may persist when a science has low power. Published in PNAS, 2018.
A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications
This paper studies how the generosity of unemployment insurance should vary over the business cycle in the United States. Published in AEJ Policy, 2018.
A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory
This paper develops a theory of optimal unemployment insurance in matching models. Published in AEJ Policy, 2018.
Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment
This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations in which the labor and product markets have a matching structure. Published in QJE, 2015.
A Theory of Countercyclical Government Multiplier
This paper develops a New Keynesian model in which the government multiplier doubles when unemployment rises from 5% to 8%. Published in AEJ Macro, 2014.
Mathematics for Macroeconomics
This graduate minicourse covers basic mathematical methods for macroeconomics: dynamic programming, optimal control, and differential equations.
Do Matching Frictions Explain Unemployment? Not in Bad Times
This paper proposes a matching model of the labor market with job rationing: unemployment persists even without matching frictions. Published in AER, 2012.
Automated Business Cycle Dashboard
This dashboard provides real-time charts on US unemployment rate, vacancy rate, labor market tightness, FERU, unemployment gap, and recession probability.
Location
Pascal Michaillat's office location and mailing address at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
Office Hours
Schedule and location of Prof. Michaillat's office hours at the University of California, Santa Cruz.