Ruin-Nation
Thoughts on “thinking” about the Roman Empire.
Paper Economy
Macroeconomic analysis through commentary and data visualizations.
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Dormant Last read · last published · next check
Read 2 days ago and current, but nothing has been published for 3 years.
Latest episodes
Not the Right Man for the Job
For a brief moment, Fed Chair Powell was truly leading the with real backbone, but that moment faded nearly as fast as it had originally materialized.
Time to "Rightsize" the Economy for a Reality-Based Future
As we leave the delusional "Everything Bubble" years far behind, getting "back to basics" will be difficult but ultimately a healthy trend towards a reality-based future.
Action and Inaction
The Fed created our current bout of runway inflation and only they can contain it, but to do so, they have to go big... Really big.
FHFA Purchase Only House Price Index – What Goes Up, Must Come Down
The spectacular home price surge seen in the wake of the anomalous pandemic economic period is now beginning to abruptly reverse.
The Inflation Conflagration
Given that the Fed's own reckless monetary policy is the source of today's inflation, will they finally show some responsibility and fight the rising prices or cave to an inflationary end-state?
Forecasting the Coming Housing Collapse
Home prices have, yet again, been recklessly pumped up by the Fed's own "easy money" monetary policy leading to an even larger disconnect from fundamentals and likely a major home price downturn.
The Real Great Recession
The cost of the Fed and the Federal government's reckless response to 2008's "Great Recession" is finally coming due and with it, bringing a new even more ominous, economic calamity.
A Real Mean Reversion
The housing run-up post-COVID panic was so absurd that even highly qualified buyers with loans made using traditionally sound lending standards are in the cross-hairs as prices simply revert to mean.
Reflecting on Rates
The Fed is way behind the curve on the battle against surging inflation; either they want to fight or they don't, but tepid rate action is not a reasonable approach.