Bitcoin is certainly looking a lot better than it did just a week or so ago off the low $60,000 range. We are now in the high $70,000s and pushed $80,000. After months of watching lower lows print, this move feels like relief. It is also a decision point.
Look at the fear and greed index on Bitcoin. It is pretty much at the levels we saw at the October 2025 high. Sentiment has shifted from extremely bearish all the way to extremely bullish in a matter of weeks.
So we have the ingredients or the makings of a trap. A final pump before the sellers come in and slam this down one more time into the four year cycle low. Typically in a bear market decline, that is what you get right before the brakes get slammed.
However, I am not so confident about that anymore.
This does feel a little more genuine than a sharp counter trend move or a short covering rally. It is holding the initial surge well. It has pushed through to another high. I am no longer in the full bear camp where we must see a deeper low later this year.
On the weekly, this is a very solid big green candle. One of the biggest weekly candles you have probably seen, certainly top five. When you get a move like that, you want to take notice. It does not often just reverse and keep going lower. This is often the beginning of a new move.
We have not confirmed a bull market and we have not confirmed an end to the bear market. But the strength of this move has to be respected.
We just tagged the 50 week moving average, which often rejects price, but we are trading back above the 10 month moving average around $74,000. Closing the month above that level is the first real sign of a possible bottom in place.
Wicks are okay. On the way up you get wicks below the 10 month average and it is not a reason to call the bull market over. Same on the decline. A wick above it that gets pulled back down means nothing. A full close above is what starts to tell you the trend is changing.
Second, clearing the six month highs. That May high sits around $82,300. If we clear it and close a week above it, that is something we really want to pay attention to. That could well mark that the low is in from a price perspective, even if not from a time perspective.
This low came in earlier than the usual window for a four year cycle low. When a price low arrives that early, what often ends up happening is a retest that forms a higher low, and then the rising phase resumes. Pretty much every bear market low has come back and retested in some form.
The downtrend that was really solid and clear is no longer the case. But this market may still chop around, make a new high, come back down toward the mid $60,000s, build something like an inverse head and shoulders, and then move up.
We have been accumulating for months, and as price came down we kept increasing the Bitcoin allocation in layers. In a recent post I wrote that I was keeping cash ready for when we drop even further from here. That is exactly what those lower levels were for. I am comfortable with the entries taken down there and I am staying committed to them, even if price comes back down. What I do not want to do is chase at the top of what is probably going to be a range for a while.
If you bought nothing in the low $60,000s, there is no easy answer. Taking some position higher is fine as long as you do not go crazy with it, and as long as you accept this market can pull back to the middle of the range around $70,000. Do not let the price action dictate how you feel about something.
One more thing. If you got aggressive with leverage into this move, this is the place to cash that in. You should be more than happy with a move like that.
Most of the gains in a portfolio are made during the meat of a cycle, being invested and allocated correctly during the main move. Catching the absolute bottom is very difficult and it is not the name of the game.
Bitcoin is the type of asset that will try and shake out as many people as possible.
So let it unfold and enjoy the ride.
Thanks for reading!
PS… Want the complete shortcut to trading altcoins with precision (without wasting months on trial-and-error)?
Click here to grab the Altcoin Profit Toolkit — 8 structured modules + 3 indicators including the Smart Exit Decoder that shows overbought conditions on multiple timeframes, helping you scan, enter, and exit trades like a pro trader.
Written by Timothy Assi, an Elite Popular Investor on eToro.
Skip the work - Copy my portfolio
Not investment advice. eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. Your capital is at risk. For information and educational purposes only.
Copy Trading does not amount to investment advice. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
Connect with me on:
🟦 Linkedin: Timothy Assi
🟪 Instagram: @panic_drop
⬛ X: @timoassi
📧 timothy@panicdrop.com
🟩 Panic Drop Podcast : on your favorite streaming app
No posts
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.