Weekly newsletter 175

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1. Amkor Technology: Server AI CPU and Advanced Packaging Upside

2. Google: Most Important Developments From 2Q26

3. Weekly newsletter 174

1. US Iran war

   1. The US military campaign against Iran has failed to force the regime to capitulate, so the Trump administration is relying on economic sanctions and a naval blockade to stifle Iran’s oil exports. The US is betting that suffocating economic pressure, dubbed “Maximum Pressure”, will lead to the collapse of the Iranian regime, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright saying Iran’s economy is getting “strangled”. The US has added thousands of sanctions on Tehran since 2018, but some analysts argue that this approach is unlikely to produce meaningful political change, as 47 years of sanctions haven’t broken Tehran’s will.

   2. US President Donald Trump made new demands on Iran, including compensation for people killed and wounded by Iranian actions, and for damages and death in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza. Iran is seeking compensation for the US and Israeli war launched on February 28 and is demanding reparations as part of talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The new demands from Trump and the reiteration of Iran’s requests have dimmed hopes of a quick deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides appearing to harden their positions.

   3. Pakistan’s defense minister said the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement” over the Strait of Hormuz, with “things shaping up in favor of peace”. Talks between Iran and Oman about reopening Hormuz to some maritime shipping have reached an advanced stage, according to a Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson. The US sees Iran’s demands as constantly shifting and believes Tehran faces mounting economic pressure and factional infighting, with a White House official saying Trump is in no rush to secure a deal.

2. US initial jobless claims

   1. Applications for US unemployment benefits were little changed, remaining below 200,000 for a third straight week and underscoring the labor market’s resilience. Initial claims edged up to 199,000 in the week ended Aug. 1, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The streak below 200,000 was the longest since 1969, at a time when such low levels were more common and the US workforce was about half what it is now. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, a metric that helps smooth out volatility, fell to the lowest since September 2022.

3. Underlying US inflation

   1. Underlying US inflation was subdued in July, likely easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The consumer price index, excluding food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from a month earlier and 2.5% from a year earlier. The report suggests the impact of the energy-price shock from the Iran war continued to fade in July, giving the Fed more room to weigh inflation pressures against a recent slowdown in hiring.

4. Capital gains tax exemption

   1. The White House is considering a push to increase a capital gains tax exemption for primary home sales and cut levies on investments ahead of the midterm election, which would disproportionately benefit some of the wealthiest US households. The proposed tax cuts would likely do little to help the average voter struggling with high grocery bills and gas prices and would instead predominantly benefit wealthier homeowners, many of whom live in Democratic-led states. Raising the capital gains exemption for home sales and indexing capital gains to inflation are being considered, with the latter change estimated to hand the top 0.1% a $350,000 tax break on average, while the bottom 40% of people by income would see no change to their tax burdens.

5. 30-year US government bonds

   1. The US government sold 30-year bonds at a 5.216% interest rate, the highest since 2001, due to investors’ demand for greater compensation to finance the nation’s growing deficit. The high interest rate is a concern for the government ahead of midterm elections, as lofty government financing costs are feeding through to the broader economy. Investors are demanding higher yields due to inflation uncertainty, fiscal risks, and the Federal Reserve no longer being a major buyer, which could lead to long-term yields moving higher.

6. Cerebras

   1. Cerebras Systems slid after the company projected slower growth than some investors anticipated. Revenue will be about $215 million in the current quarter, which topped the $212 million average estimate but was below some predictions. The company’s cloud division revenue nearly quadrupled to $127.7 million on a core basis, eclipsing its hardware business, which sells computers outfitted with its chips.

7. Cisco

   1. Cisco fell after the company projected $7.5 billion in AI data center sales this fiscal year, which disappointed investors. AI sales will make up about 10% of Cisco’s projected total revenue of $72.2 billion to $73.4 billion in fiscal 2027, according to a company statement. Cisco Chief Executive Officer Chuck Robbins described the AI sales guidance as “a good, prudent guide for the year”, despite analysts questioning how it lined up with AI-related orders.

8. CoreWeave

   1. CoreWeave soared in late trading after the AI spending frenzy spurred faster sales growth than anticipated, with sales expected to be $3.45 billion to $3.6 billion in the third quarter. The company’s backlog was $104 billion at the end of the quarer, and it inked more than $25 billion in new customer commitments after the period ended, suggesting that “AI demand remains strong”. CoreWeave raised its revenue outlook to a range of $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion for the full year, and its shares rose about 15% in extended trading after the report was released.

9. Google

   1. Google released its Gemini 3.7 Flash artificial intelligence model, which outperforms its predecessor in coding tasks. Google added stronger safety features to Gemini 3.7 Flash, including blocking malicious hacking and dangerous misuse. Delays to Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro model have left investors questioning the company’s roadmap, especially in areas like AI coding.

10. OpenAI

    1. OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40 billion based on its current performance, roughly doubling its run rate from the end of 2025. The company’s revenue has accelerated in recent months, driven in part by the growth of its AI coding software, subscription sales, and its nascent advertising business. OpenAI has seen a sharp uptick in demand for its AI agents, including Codex for coding and ChatGPT Work, and has cut prices on certain models to better compete for cost-conscious customers.

11. Pony AI

    1. Pony AI plans to deploy more than 2,000 robotaxis across Europe in partnership with Uber Technologies. The initiative will expand an existing partnership between the two companies in Croatia’s Zagreb to four additional cities in the continent. Pony AI and Uber’s expansion also includes the Middle East, with more details about the rollout to be announced later.

12. Sandisk

    1. Sandisk announced its financial model for the years 2028 through 2030 at its 2026 investor day. Sandisk targets the following as part of its 2028-2030 financial model: Revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens during that period; Sees non-GAAP gross margins at about 80%; Targets non-GAAP operating margin of about 75%; Expects to return excess 100% of excess cash after investing in business; Targets ~50% adjusted free cash flow margin. Sandisk is up more than 530% this year.

13. SpaceX

    1. SpaceX has unveiled its latest AI model, Grok 4.6, which could help it achieve CEO Elon Musk’s revenue goals. Grok 4.6 scored higher on Artificial Analysis’s “Intelligence Index” than its predecessor Grok 4.5 and appears to be cheaper than its rivals。 SpaceX shares rose as investors cheered the release of the new model and other recent AI announcements, with CEO Elon Musk saying AI revenue will “exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably” by September.

14. Workday

    1. Reuters reported Workday is in talks to be acquired by Silver Lake. Reuters cites people familiar with the matter. Silver Lake and Workday have held discussions about a potential deal in recent months; sources say talks are ongoing and there is no guarantee a deal will materialize. Silver Lake and Workday did not immediately respond to Bloomberg requests for comment Peers including Wix, HubSpot, and Salesforce also extending gains after the Reuters report.