Road to $1M: Nvidia, SpaceX, and the Macro Risk Adjustment Thesis

In this article I provide an update to my portfolio allocation, recent moves achieving this position, intended forward moves and the strategy behind them, a macro risk adjustment thesis.

I officially started the Road to $1M on the February 2, 2026. On that day I had $50,805.71 in my Schwab account and I made it my goal to grow this nest egg to $1M in 10 years or less by first achieving a $100k portfolio value by the end of 2026.

I started failing and cheating almost immediately. Failing because I was making crypto short bets and February has marked the year low to date, though I think it will come back. I planned an excellent bailing strategy that I did not actually execute, costing me a couple thousand dollars. That’s described in the Major Crypto Invalidation Handling section of this article.

I cheated because I contributed ~$15k cash to these accounts though my plan was to forego committing additional contributions to the $50k nest egg. It’s an allowable cheat, as I intend all my cheating to be. I call it out so that when my portfolio balance goes up, we don’t misattribute this to genius investing, which I certainly have not done well so far.

By March 15, my portfolio had reached 65k.

Here are five other interesting changes that occurred between March 15 and today:

1. Coinbase began allowing leveraged ETF stock trading, so I can pivot from perps to leveraged ETFs to avoid squeezing, derisk in low confidence periods, and better control bet size because Coinbase (afaict) forces you to fully exit perps all at once per asset. I can’t sell just one or two contracts.

2. As the price of btc and eth climbed higher than I expected and I refused to bail on the perps, I did begin hedging by buying TQQQ. This was strategic rather than directly selling crypto because crypto has been bleeding to stocks, so than stocks can rise even as crypto goes sideways. Continue reading for more info as this is basically an implementation of my Macro Risk Adjustment Thesis.

3. I predicted NVIDIA’s earnings beat and that it would pair with a stock price decline and I bot the NVIDIA dip as well as QQQ options, expecting the whole market to rise along with the same bullish tech fundamentals driving NVIDIA. These moves created a positive

4. I’ve continued listening to and generally agreeing with Ben Cowen’s crypto analysis and Kevin Paffrath’s stock analysis, influencing my current positions and forward intent. I’ll say more in the future intent sections.

5. I recently got a pay increase with my employer, which may increase forward risk taking or contribution rate.

My allocation now sits at $62.2k:

1. Schwab: 37k (14k ETHD, 14k SBIT, 9k cash)

2. Coinbase: 14.8k* (1.15k ETHD, 1.15k SBIT, 13.3k cash)

3. Robinhood: 6.7k (3.1k SBIT, 3.4k ETHD, 200** misc)

4. Composer: 1.1k cash

5. IBKR: 2.6k (1.2k ETHD, 1.4k SBIT)

*I realize the underlying assets don’t sum to the total. I’m just reporting what Coinbase tells me. I recently cleared my perps so I guess there is some weird cash settlement blur which I hope is resolved by Tuesday.

**I used Autopilot and assigned $500 to the Pelosi Tracker earlier this year inside of Robinhood, but this software clearly has some catastrophic issues because Autopilot reports I’ve made a $68 gain for a total in $559 assigned through the Pelosi tracker, yet that tracker explains $0 of my $6.5k SBIT and ETHD allocation, leaving a maximum $200 attributable to the Pelosi Tracker. I cancelled my Autopilot subscription today.

I may use cash to go long in tech stocks or ETFs though the SpaceX IPO on June 12th. See the section “Why: SpaceX Stock Top Thesis” for more info. After that point, I’ll step out of stocks until I see macro bullish stability and I’ll be more naked with my crypto bear bets.

I do continue expect bitcoin to decline by October even beyond the February low, though I will begin to fade out of the shorts at a price just above the February low to mitigate the risk that my own estimate is wrong. My low price estimate remains $45k, though I will start to fade around $62k, maybe even $64k if things change.

I will continue to weight ether shorts at 20-50% of my crypto bear beat as ether continues to decline faster than bitcoin week over week in confirmation of the macro risk adjustment thesis. I’ll hold anywhere from 0-20% cash as a buffer and potential opportunistic investment source from June to October.

In October, I’ll look around and see whether it’s time to get out or wether crypto decline seems likely through Q1. I don’t have solid plans for the post-October window at this time.

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The thesis is:

1. We are in a bitcoin bear market which began with the November top last year

2. Altcoins have been and will continued to bleed to bitcoin

3. Bitcoin has been bleeding to stocks, or underperforming QQQ, and will continue to do so until it hits the annual low price

4. More generally, investment capital is going risk-off, rolling down a ranked risk curve of assets from altcoins to bitcoin to tech stocks and later into more stable stocks, bonds, treasuries, perhaps metals, etc

As the fed keeps raising rates, or such a thing is increasingly expected, investors will become more conservative with their asset selection. If a bear market enters the stocks or a general recession is claimed in the US, investors will get very conservative. As we head out of recession, cash will eventually flow the other way, with a typical recession lasting less than one year from the date of official identification (though, official identification often lags material impact to many people).

Related to this is the concept of leader loss. In a bull regime, gains are concentrated in top companies. We can see this by looking at the 5 year performance of FNGS relative to QQQ and SPY. FNGS wins, but on the one year and YTD FNGS is underperforming QQQ, indicating leader loss which is a business cycle late stage indicator, consistent with AI leaders running into diminishing marginal gains and the possibility of a near-term top. Plus, QQQ often experiences weak performance in midterm years.

For all of these reasons, while my YTD is underperforming the case where I had just bought QQQ in February and held, I am still more confident in my bear crypto bet rather than a pivot at the moment. Perhaps that will change after the SpaceX IPO.

Based on Kevin Paffrath’s analysis, I expect the SPCX ticker to drop after IPO. I’m not confident on the magnitude. CBRS is an interesting recent tech IPO where Kevin was bearish and it has dropped ~17% since the IPO 8 days ago.

SpaceX is losing money so a classic PE ratio would be negative and therefore not a good comparison to other stocks. We can instead look at a multiple of value to revenue. The estimated price-to-revenue / price-to-sales ratio is about 107x on annualized combined revenue when combining SpaceX and xAI revenue at an IPO valuation of $2T. Tech stocks are volatile and Elon’s companies have known to be particularly volatile and high multiple. Tesla’s trailing PE is over 380 with a forward PE of 200. Typical Nasdaq stocks have a PE in the range of 20-40.

Tesla’s price-to-sales is about 15, which means SpaceX is inflated 7 times over compared to Tesla on a per sales basis, and of course Tesla is far more profitable. For SpaceX to unprice this elevated multiple would imply a reduction in value of about 85%. I doubt this unwind would take place within a month, and I also doubt it would ever take place because I think when SpaceX has been running publicly for a year the financials will significantly stabilize. That being contingent on stable or increasing general QQQ value. If the market overall collapses, I would indeed expect SPCX to overparticipate in the general drop.

I would be slightly surprised but not incredibly surprised for a general market collapse to kick off in the next 12 months. So let’s say 85% drop in one year would be a slight surprise to me. I would be very surprised if that occurs one month from IPO day.

Working backwards from that, I would expect a drop between 17% and 85% to occur somewhere between SpaceX IPO day and the one month mark. The midpoint would be a 51% drop.

A drop this severe for a major player in AI would indeed discourage investors at least through the midterms and plausibly beyond. I’m not saying I actually expect a 51% drop as a base case, I’m just saying this wouldn’t surprise me, and a general downtrend to follow in the markets through end of year would also not surprise me as I already expect crypto to head down through Q4 and there is a correlation between QQQ and crypto.

There is some chance the SPCX drawdown is low or negligible. If we get a 20% drop in one month, it’s not at all clear to me that this would create mass negative investor sentiment and perhaps QQQ could avoid netting down from June to December. The impact to my investment strategy is essentially that I am inclined to stop going long in stocks the week prior to IPO and potentially through end of year or until I see bullish trend stability, contrasting with my current May behavior where I’ve been long QQQ and even particular stocks like Nvidia to hedge against bitcoin price increases.