AI agents can't yet do open-ended AI research
Early evidence from two case studies
AI as Normal Technology
Analyzing AI as transformative but normal technology, not superintelligence.
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Latest episodes
What will be left for us to work on?
My keynote at ICML 2026
Up the Stack: How AI’s Escape From the Commodity Trap Risks Enterprise Lock-in
Critics and boosters are both looking in the wrong place
Why AI hasn’t replaced software engineers, and won’t
Coding agents as normal technology
Did Google’s AI agents really build an operating system for $916?
The importance of independent evaluation
Do AI Risks Require Extraordinary Government Intervention?
Let’s not skip the hard work of AI governance
Open-world evaluations for measuring frontier AI capabilities
Introducing CRUX, a new project for evaluating AI on long, messy tasks
New Paper: Towards a science of AI agent reliability
Quantifying the capability-reliability gap
AI Won’t Automatically Make Legal Services Cheaper
Applying the AI as Normal Technology framework to legal services
Fact checking Moravec's paradox
This famous aphorism is neither true nor useful