Q3 2025 Portfolio Review

This will be a shorter update than usual as real life took priority over Substack this quarter. (Nothing bad, just a few things that I needed to deal with.)

• No Deep Dives Portfolio: 10.83%

• S&P 500 (in EUR): 8.34%

Another excellent quarter, carried by telecom. S&P 500 is roughly flat YTD in EUR thanks to USD devaluation.

• Bought Zegona (ZEG.L) at 738p

  Lots of good things have been written about Zegona and I will link some here and here.
  Zegona is a highly levered turnaround story tied to Vodafone Spain. The core thesis is simple: monetize infra assets (like fiber) and fix operations. The stock price has already done extremely well, but it has also transformed from “option-like, high risk, high reward” into a more derisked story at a higher share price.

  Early in Q3, Zegona released their FY25 and Q1 26 results. This was basically the first time they properly communicated to shareholders. The operational turnaround is on track, and so is the monetization of fiber. This update seemed very positive and the stock didn’t react to it, which made it the perfect opportunity to buy some shares. More good news followed and Zegona ended up being my biggest winner in the quarter.

• Bought Humm Group (HUM.AX) at 0.65 AUD

  Humm is a Australian non-bank lender with rapidly improving fundamentals, yet it trades at a rock bottom valuation. The main overhang is 26% shareholder Andrew Abercrombie who’s trying to take it private on the cheap, whilst not returning excess cash to shareholders.
  Activists Jeremy Raper and Collins St Asset Management are pushing back, aiming to force a proper sale process or drive better standalone capital allocation. Probably I’ll write more on Humm later in a seperate post, but in the meantime Raper Capital’s writings provide a good start: June 30 and Oct 27.
  

• Full exit of WPK.TO - Winpak at 44.97 CAD:

  Nothing really changed (except that it could get caught in a tariff war) since my purchase, but I recently bought Amcor which is in the same sector. I’m simply selling this lower conviction position for better options.

• Trimmed ZEG.L - Zegona at 1240p

  A new position for the quarter that has been on quite a tear in 2 months: +68%. . The catalyst was confirmation of FiberCo monetization, which will generate enough cash to cancel the preferred shares, a key milestone in the bull case. Norbury Capital is on top of this one, and has a good update.

This quarter was carried by strong gains in telecom, while a weakening UK outlook dragged down my three worst performers.

AI-loser no more.

Trough-earnings on trough-multiple situation. Cocao price are finally easing and the stock started to work.

That said, some effects of the cocoa price spike may be permanent. Lower cocoa content, some demand destruction, and shifts in consumer habits could mean volumes never fully recover.

Barry is the swing producer: customers have in-house capacity and outsourced the remainder to Barry. When volumes decline, Barry might be the first to lose business. Therefore the share price seems to be highly linked to volume guidance.

There’s a recent good write-up on VIC, and the bear case arguments I just mentioned come from the comments there, by Roderick van Zuylen.

While writing this letter, I realized I’m no longer feeling this position. It was meant as a play on mean-reverting cocoa prices, but I’m starting to doubt whether Barry Callebaut will capture the full rebound.

So I decided to exit (today, in Q4) and sold the entire position at a small loss.

Kitwave (-29%), MACF (-24%), GRG (-16%)

All hit by the combo of a macro slowdown in the UK and persistent pessimism towards UK stocks. Still, it remains an interesting pond to fish in.

I’ve been slacking a on Substack writing lately and had planned to do another Millicom recap… but two fellow TIGO 0.00%↑ enjooooyers already beat me to it. And did an excellent job.

This year has been going very well, largely driven by Millicom. The stock still seems cheap despite the sharp increase in share price and hence stays a big position.

Over the past quarter, real life took priority, and I rarely felt like writing. As a result, my Substack pace has been slower than planned. I’ll keep sharing updates when I can, but expect an irregular schedule and unpredictable frequency.