How Much is the Iran War Costing the UK Economy?
The conflict in the Middle East is weighing on UK economic activity. As the UK imports about half of its energy, when energy prices rise, we must give up more...
NIESR
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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Improving the Communication and Understanding of Risks in NIESR’s UK Macroeconomic Forecasts
In the context of an increasingly uncertain world, the Bank of England commissioned former US Federal Reserve Chairman Dr Ben Bernanke to review their forecasting and related processes. This increase...
Instead of Tightening, Could Burnham Front-Load a Fiscal Stimulus?
David Aikman asks whether Andy Burnham should front‑load the fiscal squeeze in order to reassure markets that the government will comply with its fiscal framework. Here I examine the case...
What the Iran Conflict Means for Wales
The conflict between the US and Iran, together with Iranian strikes on other Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have had a major effect on the...
Navigating a Challenging Economic Inheritance
What are the particular challenges that the new Chancellor will face when he delivers his first budget on 28 October The government talks about moving “money and power out of...
A Century Since the End of Laissez-Faire
This month marks the centenary of the publication of J. M. Keynes’ essay ‘The End of Laissez-Faire’. Originally published as a pamphlet in July 1926, it was based on lectures...
UK Inflation: The Calm Before the Energy Price Storm Hits
Annual CPI inflation fell to 2.6 per cent from 2.8 per cent in May. Monthly price growth between May and June 2026 was lower than expected at 0.1 per cent...
Assessing Burnham’s Devolution Drive
What are Andy Burnham’s devolution plans and why do they matter? In a series of speeches, the incoming Prime Minister has promised to the biggest-ever ‘rebalancing of power’ away from...
One Last Speech, One Big Question
On Tuesday 14 July, Chancellor Reeves gave what is likely to be her last Mansion House speech. Within it she gave a passionate defence of her time as Chancellor. But...
Should Burnham Front-Load The Fiscal Squeeze?
Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister on Monday with a long list of economic questions waiting for him. One of the more consequential is whether to hold an expanded fiscal event...