How will Andy Burnham do as prime minister?

It is obviously difficult to say how Burnham will perform as PM, at least in the abstract. I mean, there is a chance, however slim, that he will turn the British economy and political culture around almost entirely, become wildly popular in the process and then win a huge majority at the next general election. I concede that, yes, this is technically possible. Having said that, it’s tricky to see how he does this given three important things: one, the times we live in and how difficult it is for anyone to govern; two, Burnham’s own history and evident character, which does not suggest he’s cut out for this challenge; and three, the assumptions which drive the current Labour Party, almost all of which are incorrect.

Let’s deal with each of those factors separately. So, first off, the times we live in. Yes, it is very difficult to govern and people have huge expectations of their elected officials and no patience for non-delivery of said expectations. Burnham also inherits a mess from Starmer; a government that has done almost nothing for two years. This means it would be extremely difficult for anyone to be prime minister right now.

Turning to Burnham specifically, I just don’t think he’s up for breaking our run of terrible prime ministers stretching back to the EU referendum. Yes, he’s a much better communicator than Keir Starmer (which isn’t difficult, to be fair). He’s much more likeable than Starmer on a basic, human level. Yet it is worth remembering that he was a fairly mediocre minister, bouncing between three departments within a three year span of Brown’s government. Burnham left parliament in 2017 for what was a fairly cushy job as mayor of Manchester. People have marvelled at how the mayoral system has nurtured some big political stars since it was created, but I’m not surprised in the least that this has happened. It’s a job where you have a large staff, not a massive amount of stress for such a big political job, and you constantly get to spend other people’s money. It’s difficult to screw up, in other words.

I could go on about what I think Burnham’s shortcomings as a politician are, but it seems needless given the third and final reason I see him succeeding as PM is such a strong one. It comes down to the party he is in and loves so dearly. Labour is deeply wrong, about pretty much everything these days.

There is talk of Streeting becoming chancellor of the exchequer. One of his big ideas is to equalise capital gains tax and income tax so that they are the same. This sounds great to unthinking socialists. By making them equal, that would be so much more tax revenue, they believe. And why should people who invest pay less tax than people who work for a living? That doesn’t seem fair, they conclude. Of course, it’s a monumentally terrible idea that will have a deleterious effect on the economy. And Streeting is supposedly on the right of the Labour Party.

Equalising captial gains taxes takes away a large incentive to invest. If your return is going to be the same as income tax, which is already massively high for big earners, then what is the point of taking the risk. If no one invests, new businesses don’t get created and we end up with much fewer jobs as a result.

It is a great example of how the Labour Party is wrong about everything and why. Labour just thinks in terms of “How do we get more money, from either taxes or borrowing, to keep this dysfunctional, welfare dependent state going?” They cannot see outside of this equation. They cannot see that the benefits system is dysfunctional and bloated, or that throwing money at the NHS doesn’t work as planned. I don’t believe Andy Burnham has the ability see outside of this and even if I did, I know almost no one in his cabinet will be able to see outside of this way of looking at the world.

In summary, Burnham will be left with the same problems Starmer faced, and the exact same PLP with which to try and solve the problems. To my mind, that has him stuffed from day one of his premiership. However good he is as a communicator. I feel fairly certain that Burnham will fail; that he will disappoint current supporters on the left, centre-left and right of the Labour Party. He will because he’s trapped by circumstance. No matter how much better on social media Burnham will be than Starmer - and he will be exponentially better at that part of the job - he is becoming prime minister in the set of circumstances that he is, and that’s what will do for him, I’m afraid.

P.S. - those hoping that Burnham leads us back to the EU or to a proportional voting system for the House of Commons are very, very likely fooling themselves.