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Nick Arnosti on b · Dec 8, 2024

Will HH appear before TH?

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I recently wrote about a flawed analysis of the hot hand in shooting data, which revealed some potentially counter-intuitive phenomena involving coin flips. Continuing in that vein, here are some more fun facts about fair coin flips! Let’s start with an exercise for the reader. Suppose we repeatedly flip a fair coin. Which of the following statements are correct? There is a 50% chance that the…

I recently wrote about a flawed analysis of the hot hand in shooting data, which revealed some potentially counter-intuitive phenomena involving coin flips. Continuing in that vein, here are some more fun facts about fair coin flips! Let’s start with an exercise for the reader. Suppose we repeatedly flip a fair coin. Which of the following statements are correct? There is a 50% chance that the sequence HH appears before the sequence HT There is a 50% chance that the sequence HH appears before the sequence TH The expected number of flips until HH appears is the same as the expected number of flips until HT appears.

Read on /blog/probabilitypuzzles/

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