CARRY UNWIND?
Is the biggest leveraged trade on earth about to reverse?
The Oracle by Polymarket
Read this to become a better forecaster
Live Last read · last published · next check
Latest posts
OG
An interview with Robin Hanson, the intellectual godfather of modern prediction markets
FORCED SELLER
How Polymarket traders monitored the Situational Awareness situation
BIBI VALUE
Top Israeli political analyst: market underrating Netanyahu, Lieberman has a real shot, and here's what could bring Israel back into the Iran war
CLOSING TIME
Houthi insiders told me Bab el-Mandeb is next
JETBLUE LEFT TAIL
Bond traders and Polymarket disagree on the airline’s fate
THE LONG GOODBYE
Why Christine Lagarde is likely heading for the ECB exit
PLATNER MULTIVERSE
The hidden math inside every Polymarket contract
The Hormuz Reopening Gap
The Brent-WTI spread has not caught up to Polymarket
THE TOTENBERG EFFECT
How Polymarket traders reacted to NPR fake news