The Conduct of Inquiry
The hyperscalers need nuclear power. 10 GW of deals in 18 months. More capacity than the US has built in 30 years. But nuclear has a supply chain. Uranium gets mined, converted to gas, enriched, fabricated into fuel. Each stage has its own facilities, capacities, bottlenecks. The deals get covered. The fuel cycle doesn't. Demand Shock Hyperscaler nuclear power demand is exploding. In 2025 the…
AI is collapsing the cost of cognitive labor. The innovations and macroeconomic phenomena that are causing these changes are noisy and obscured in the information silos of the modern world. This is the most significant macroeconomic shift since the 1970s offshoring of manufacturing. There are implications across software, energy, and monetary systems. Inputs To train models and do inference on…
A conduct of inquiry. If you are anyone claiming to have genuine curiosity about the world you are naive to reason about things without wondering what it means to reason. What reasoning tools exist, are they good? What assumptions do it make? What does it mean to know something? I often tell people that some philosophy needs a warning sign. Once an idea gets a foothold in your mind you cannot…
The Opportunity Creating things is at the heart of the human experience. It's never been a better time to create things. Artificial intelligence is noisy and polarizing, but it has drastically reduced the cost of creating. One of the many outputs of AI, but perhaps the most remarkable, is software. The frontier models are currently the worst they will ever be. They are also substantially…
It's 2026. The cost of producing software is less than minimum wage. The US Petro Dollar is weakening. Last year the global BRICS alliance produced more GDP than the G7 for the first time in the world. We sanctioned Russia's SWIFT access and they survived. Countries are no longer forced to price oil in dollars. Countries don't want to use SWIFT anymore. Countries are buying gold…
The most ephemeral but powerful forces in the world are our thoughts. These shape our perception of the world, ourselves, and eventually drive us to make the decisions that we do. I find it difficult to imagine an experience without a conceptualization or an intellectualization of experience. The dissemination of ideas has shaped the world, defined civilizations, cultures and values of nations,…