International Football

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Happy Thursday, everyone! And today we direct our focus to football going international, in more ways than one. The English Premier League returns tomorrow with defending-champion Arsenal installed as a heavy favorite to repeat, so we’ll dig into all of the odds there below — and whether we think the Gunners’ changing reputation as a champion (not a bridesmaid) is here to stay. Also, Roger Goodell is openly predicting the NFL to eventually add a team outside the United States… but where (and when) would it happen? Meanwhile, we’re due for another full slate of baseball, WNBA action, the start of the BMW Championship and even a pair of NFL preseason games tonight. Here’s what all we’re watching out for:

The Main Events

All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game

MLB:
⚾ Braves (51%) at White Sox (49%) - 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Mariners (44%) at Brewers (56%) - 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (54%) at Orioles (46%) - 6:35 p.m. (MASN / YES / MLB Network)
⚾ World Series title check-in: Dodgers 32% to win

WNBA:
🏀 Fever (61%) at Wings (39%) - 8 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀 Dream (78%) at Sparks (22%) - 10 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀 Sun (10%) at Aces (90%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 WNBA title check-in: Lynx 46% to win

Soccer:
⚽ Copa Libertadores: LDU Quito (71%) vs. Mirassol (29%) - 6 p.m. (beIN SPORTS Connect / Fubo) 🚨
⚽ Copa Libertadores: Corinthians (60%) vs. Rosario Central (40%) - 8:30 p.m. (beIN SPORTS Connect / Fubo) 🚨
⚽ Premier League title check-in: Arsenal 45% to win (New season starts 8/21)
⚽ MLS title check-in: Inter Miami 21% to win MLS Cup
⚽ NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 26% to win

Football:
🏈 NFL Preseason: Raiders (53%) at Texans (47%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN)
🏈 NFL Preseason: 49ers (52%) at Chargers (48%) - 10 p.m. (NFL Network)
🏈 Super Bowl check-in: Rams 17% to win NFL title
🏈 College Football Playoff check-in: Notre Dame, Ohio State and Texas 14% to win national title

Tennis:
🎾 Cincinnati Open - Men’s: Taylor Fritz 34% to win / Women’s: Iga Swiatek 26% to win

Golf:
⛳ BMW Championship - Round 1 - 9:15 a.m. (Golf Channel / Peacock) - Scottie Scheffler 25% to win
⛳ FedEx Cup Playoffs: Scottie Scheffler 24% to win championship

Arsenal versus The Field

It wasn’t too long ago when the narrative around Arsenal F.C. was of a club that always found a way to fall short — routinely being praised for their style, and making themselves a fixture in the Champions League most years this century even when their finances were relatively tight, but also earning a reputation as perpetual bridesmaids who crumbled whenever the Premier League title race reached its climax. Ever since “The Invincibles” of 2003-04, Arsenal had finished second or third in the EPL table nine times without ever winning the league, including watching Manchester City lift the trophy over them in 2023 and 2024, and Liverpool as well in 2025.

Even as deep into the 2025-26 season as late April, there were real questions as to whether the Gunners could finish the job, holding off Man City to end a 22-year Premier League title drought. But after losing head-to-head against City on April 19, Mikel Arteta’s squad stabilized its season with victories in six of its final eight matches and zero losses. With that, Arsenal won its first Premier League crown in multiple decades.

Now comes the hard part: Defending that title, as Arsenal will attempt to do with the Premier League kicking off the 2026-27 season tomorrow.

The Gunners will take on newly-promoted Coventry City at 3 p.m. before what’s sure to be a raucous crowd at Emirates Stadium — and there will probably be much to celebrate, between the coronation-like atmosphere before kickoff and the match itself. Arsenal is an 84% favorite to win the match in the prediction markets versus a Coventry team freshly promoted back to the top-flight for the first time since 2001.

But in the broader title picture, Arsenal has also gone from late-season uncertainty over whether they’d end their title drought at all to suddenly being a heavy favorite to run things back again in 2026-27. To track the EPL title picture, I created an aggregator that pulls market odds from the prediction markets and sportsbooks, normalizing them and combining them into a single handy page of probabilities:

At consensus odds of 42%, Arsenal has more than double the chance to win as the next-highest team, Man City at 20%. How much of a favorite does that make them? Well, the world of European soccer is notorious for its lack of competitive balance, so a preseason 40%+ favorite is not actually that high by recent market standards if we compare with other favorites in the odds since 2009-10:

But if we remove Man City’s years as preseason favorite from the sample — there were six seasons when City was at or above 50% (a true “odds-on” favorite) to win — Arsenal is indeed a heavier favorite than we’ve typically seen in recent decades. (Liverpool, for instance, went in favored last season at only 33%, ending up just fifth in the table.)

That’s different territory than usual for this club, which concurrently with its long title drought was never the favorite going into a season either. And those odds do mean there’s around a 60% chance their 2025-26 crown ends up being a one-and-done. But for the first time in a generation, the question is no longer whether Arsenal can finally get over the hump; it’s whether the Gunners can stay there.

Going global

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell made some waves this week when asked about the NFL’s expansion plans outside the United States. “At some point, there will be NFL teams outside the USA,” Goodell told former NFL player Markus Kuhn during an interview with German media outlet RTL/ntv. “I have no doubt that this will happen one day.” But where and when? The NFL has been adding more international games each season in recent years, including places like Brazil, Ireland, Australia, France and Spain — though the UK and Canada remain the most commonly used international sites. And despite Goodell’s comments, Polymarket traders set the odds of an expansion team being announced outside the US by the end of this season at just 12%.

What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.

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Next on deck…

Friday (8/21)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Brewers
🏀 WNBA: Lynx at Mystics
⚽ Premier League: Coventry City at Arsenal (Start of 2026-27 EPL season!!!)
⛳ Golf: FedEx Cup Playoffs: BMW Championship - Round 2
🏈 NFL preseason: Jets at Steelers

Saturday (8/22)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Brewers
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Liberty
⚽ EPL: Hull City vs. Manchester United
⚽ MLS: Inter Miami CF vs. Toronto FC
⛳ Golf: FedEx Cup Playoffs: BMW Championship - Round 3
🏈 NFL preseason: Chiefs at Buccaneers
🎾 Tennis: Cincinnati Open - Men’s & Women’s Semifinals
⚾ Little League World Series: International & U.S. Bracket Play
🥊 Boxing: Rolando “Rolly” Romero vs. Teofimo Lopez Jr. (WBA welterweight title)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Sunday (8/23)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Brewers
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Sky
⚽ EPL: Liverpool at Newcastle United
🏈 NFL preseason: Seahawks at Titans
⛳ FedEx Cup Playoffs: BMW Championship - Final Round 🚨
🏁 F1: Dutch Grand Prix
🏁 NASCAR: Dollar Tree 301 (New Hampshire Motor Speedway)
🏁🏛️ IndyCar: Freedom 250 Grand Prix of Washington, D.C.

🧠 Looking ahead

Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.

Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!

All data current as of time of send.

— by Neil Paine

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.