Ferencvaros +1 Asian Handicap at 1.81 with Pinnacle / Bet105 - 2 units
Salah is the name propping up this price and the market is paying for the name. His goal contributions halved last season, 1.06 per 90 down to 0.57 per Wyscout, and at the World Cup he managed 1 goal in 5 games playing out of position. We’re betting the gap between the name and the numbers.
Trabzonspor’s 3rd-place finish flattered them. They were 10th in the Süper Lig for xGA and a league-high 9 penalties propped up the attack.
6 of their 10 most-used players from last season won’t be on the pitch. Felipe Augusto (Zenit), Zubkov (AEK) and Oulaï ($28m to Fiorentina) were sold, while Muçi, Batagov and Jabol-Folcarelli are all injured. Between them that’s 44 goal contributions and over half of last season’s league goals, and the replacement plan is a 34-year-old. What’s left leans on Onuachu, whose 22 included 6 of those 9 penalties.
Even Fatih Tekke has called Ferencváros the better side on paper this week. Euro Club Index has very little between them, but the edge goes to the Hungarians, who have made the knockout rounds in Europe in each of the past 2 seasons: the Europa League Round of 16 last season and the knockout play-off phase the year before.
This season they have already seen off Vojvodina, Twente and Górnik Zabrze, going W4 D2 L0 with 1.83 scored and 0.83 conceded per 90.
Twente are a very similar strength side to Trabzonspor on the ratings and Ferencváros beat them 4-3 on aggregate despite playing almost all of the 2nd leg with 10 men.
Across the last 12 months they have lost by more than 1 goal just twice: 4-0 at Forest, and 4-0 to Braga, who scored 4 from 1.18 xG and 6 attempts on target.
Fradi have the sharpness edge too. 9 competitive games this season against Trabzonspor’s 1, a 1-1 draw at Kasımpaşa where Salah played half an hour off the bench.
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