Global warming is accelerating, extreme heat events are increasing, and the latest WMO global temperature predictions are not great, yet important climate data and information are disappearing off the internet. Higher income countries show decreased support for environmental and climate policies, even though both the lowest and highest income regions are expected to have the largest average agricultural yield loss with increasing temperatures. AI data centers are projected to increase their already-high energy usage, potentially increasing costs for other energy consumers. In the past (and possibly our future), abrupt changes in climate have coincided with substantial increases in wildfire activity. Sea levels are rising at an alarming rate, posing a severe threat to coastal cities, and the ocean is becoming acidic more quickly than expected, threatening marine ecosystems. Lastly, mathematical modelling shows that creating adaptation plans that incorporate near (2030s), medium (2050s) and long (2100s) -term scenarios is the most cost beneficial and provides the best assurance that planning is not short-sighted and maladaptive.
Summary
The Associated Press covers the article Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence published in the Earth System Science Data peer-reviewed journal. “The scientists calculate that by [early 2028] there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas [carbon dioxide] in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times.”
Key Points
At the rate humanity currently burns fossil fuels, 1.5°C warming is expected to be locked in by 2028.
From the journal article: “Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.27 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2015–2024.”
From the journal article: key messages and findings related to rising temperatures as well as other indicators studied for “greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels, and the remaining global carbon budget” are publicly available in this dashboard.
Source
The Associated Press
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Continuing at the current rate of warming, without drastic emissions cuts, 2°C warming may occur within the next two decades. Given the conditions expected with these rates of warming, organizations should be making adaptation plans now to help ensure continued stewardship of materials.
Full citation
Borenstein, S. (2025, June 18). Scientists warn that greenhouse gas accumulation is accelerating and more extreme weather will come. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-threshold-15-degrees-sea-level-2727e81c4d7f57062ab9b1637a0b4ddf
Summary
This study forecasts the impacts of climate change on the global production of six staple crops—wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybean, and cassava—until 2100 while accounting for “the net consequence of nearly all climate-associated adaptive actions available to producers.” The authors estimate that for every 1 °C increase in global mean surface temperature, annual global yields decrease by 550 trillion kilocalories (kcal). Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3), which projects a global population of over 12 billion in 2100, this amounts to a shortfall of 121 kcal or 4.4% of daily recommended consumption per person for every 1 °C of warming.
While adaptation and rising incomes are projected to reduce global losses by up to one-quarter by 2050 and up to one-third by 2100 under various emissions scenarios, “substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice.” Impacts vary by region, with “modern-day breadbaskets with [current] favourable climates and limited present adaptation” experiencing the most significant losses and low-income regions also heavily affected.
Key Points
“Global populations exhibit extensive adaptation to climate already, especially in relatively low income and hot regions of the world—with the exception of the world’s poorest, who depend heavily on cassava and face higher potential losses.” Under a high emissions scenario, however, production for various crops is expected to fall by 10-50% in many regions by 2100.
Temperature changes had the largest impact on projected yields for all crops studied followed by precipitation.
The lowest and highest income regions are projected to suffer the largest average losses.
The data included “represent[s] two-thirds of global cropped calorie production” from “12,658 subnational administrative units from 54 countries for six staple crops spanning diverse local climates and socioeconomic contexts” and “up to 137 years.” The authors acknowledge that “substantial uncertainty persists in these estimates, originating from both econometric uncertainty and climate model uncertainty, such that overall risks should be assessed across the full range of projected impacts.”
Source
Nature is an international journal publishing “peer-reviewed research in all fields of science and technology.”
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Climate change is accelerating global food insecurity and the likely cascading consequences of social, economic, and political insecurities. Practitioners should anticipate reduced resources and capacity for digital preservation as support for basic needs and infrastructure faces increased risk. As well, when read alongside “Abrupt changes in biomass burning during the last glacial period,” we may expect even larger declines in staple crop production due to the intensified global fire regime resulting from changes in temperature and tropical rainfall patterns.
Full citation
Hultgren, A., Carleton, T., Delgado, M., Gergel, D. R., Greenstone, M., Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Jina, A., Kopp, R. E., Malevich, S. B., McCusker, K. E., Mayer, T., Nath, I., Rising, J., Rode, A., & Yuan, J. (2025). Impacts of climate change on global agriculture accounting for adaptation. Nature, 642(8068), 644–652. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09085-w
Summary
The US Government website Climate.gov, published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Program Office, will no longer publish updates and almost all of the supporting staff has been laid off. Climate.gov has been a trusted, non-partisan, information source on climate change and is “one of the most popular sources of information about climate science on the internet.”
Key Points
Climate.gov actively worked to dispel misinformation/disinformation on climate change.
Former staffers are concerned that the site will be used by the Trump administration to push an anti-science agenda.
As the article states: “Hiding the impacts of climate change won’t stop it from happening, it will just make us far less prepared when it does.”
Source
The Guardian newspaper
Relevance to Digital Preservation
It is becoming increasingly difficult for US citizens to access non-partisan, science-based information on climate change. The loss of Climate.gov as well as the National Climate Assessments (see this article for details) means that trustworthy US-based climate information is less available to help with planning and assessing other climate adaptation measures. Climate.gov contains many tools and interactive resources containing information on topics from sea level rise, to planting seasons, to droughts. It may become more difficult for practitioners to make the case for any adaptation measures without this data.
Full citation
Holthaus, E. (2025, June 11). Major US climate website likely to be shut down after almost all staff fired. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/11/climate-website-shut-down-noaa
Summary
This The Guardian article recaps a new study that indicates that ocean acidification is further along than scientists previously estimated, and we are running out of time to protect marine ecosystems from being irreparably degraded.
Key Points
Ocean acidification is one of nine planetary boundaries, which measure how far past pre-industrial conditions Earth can be before there are detrimental effects. The boundary for the ocean is defined as “when the concentration of calcium carbonate in seawater is more than 20% below pre industrial levels.”
While it was one of only three planetary boundaries previously considered within limits, a new study reveals that by 2020, many areas of the ocean had in fact reached that boundary – with 60% of global waters at 200 meters below the surface breaching the safe limit for acidification.
This affects marine ecosystems through degradation of habitats, like coral reefs, and calcifying the structures of species, like oysters. Since many deep sea species have yet to be identified and there is dramatic change occurring, the impacts of ocean acidification “could be far worse than we thought.”
The only way to curtail ocean acidification is by decreasing carbon dioxide emissions, and scientists recommend policy focuses on most vulnerable regions and species at this point.
Source
News article published in The Guardian, and referencing a study published in Global Change Biology, a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Loss of biodiversity in marine life threatens an extensive food web which underpins food supplies and jobs dependent on marine stability. It also impacts nations that rely on coastal conditions for tourism and storm protection—all of which may lead to social disruption and mass migrations.
Ocean acidification is not one of the obvious threats to digital preservation, but it is important to connect how seemingly unrelated climate factors alter the foundational stability of human life, changing how society functions, and undermining efforts to preserve culture and history over time.
Full citation
Bachelor, L. (2025, June 9). ‘Ticking timebomb’: sea acidity has reached critical levels, threatening entire ecosystems – study. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jun/09/sea-acidity-ecosystems-ocean-acidification-planetary-health-scientists
Summary
2024 was the hottest year on record and one filled with record temperatures. Heat waves are more common, more intense, and last longer than ever due to anthropogenic climate change. Vulnerable populations are more likely to bear the brunt of extreme heat in marginalized and lower-income areas. Individuals and municipalities can reduce impacts with infrastructure improvements and planning for future heat waves.
Key Points
Four billion people—49% of the world population—experienced 30 additional days of extreme heat over the past twelve months due to anthropogenic climate change.
In 195 countries and territories, climate change at least doubled the number of extreme heat days.
All 67 extreme heat events from the past twelve months were found to be influenced by climate change.
Source
Climate Central is an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report the facts about our changing climate and how it affects people’s lives. The Red Cross is an international group of humanitarian organizations. World Weather Attribution is a non-profit scientific organization supported by Climate Central. Major funding was provided by the Bezos Earth Fund.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Extreme heat events threaten cultural organizations and this report emphasizes that all areas, regardless of location, are subject to threats from extreme weather.
Full citation
Giguere, J., Otto, F. E. L., Tannenbaum, A., & Vahlberg, M. (2025). Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks. Climate Central, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, World Weather Attribution. https://www.climatecentral.org/report/climate-change-and-the-escalation-of-global-extreme-heat-2025
Summary
This annual report from the WMO examines trends in global temperatures. The report details numerous temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies in recent years which make forecasting challenging. Predictions were made by consulting numerous models contributed by fourteen different institutes. While the report is global in scope, it is intended to inform regional climate analyses. An example regional forecast for the Southern Asian (SASCOF) region is included as well as links to the WMO's index of regional forecasts.
Key Points
There is an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record.
There is an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 average.
There is a 70% chance that the 5-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 °C.
Precipitation patterns have big regional variations and may be either wetter or drier compared to historical averages.
Source
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology and geophysics (Wikipedia).
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This WMO report predicts that the record-setting temperatures of 2024 will be exceeded in the near future, which means organizations and infrastructure that were threatened by effects of the previous extreme temperatures must plan for further disruption. Global warming increases cooling costs and causes extreme weather events, such as forest fires, which may threaten digital storage locations.
Full citation
World Meteorological Organization. (2025). WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2025-2029 (WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update Series). World Meteorological Organization. https://wmo.int/publication-series/wmo-global-annual-decadal-climate-update-2025-2029
Archived version: https://web.archive.org/web/20250626143829/https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2025-05/WMO_GADCU_2025-2029_Final.pdf
Summary
AI requires specialized hardware for computation which in turn consumes great quantities of energy. Its popularity has created a huge demand for major data centers in the US. These data centers tend to have higher emissions than other forms of energy usage. Data centers also require large quantities of water to cool their hardware. Researchers estimate the amount of power going to AI will nearly triple by 2028. However, due to the lack of transparency from technology companies, it is difficult to estimate the exact amount of energy used by AI.
Key Points
“The carbon intensity of electricity used by data centers was 48% higher than the US average.”
“Between 2024 and 2028, the share of US electricity going to data centers may triple, from its current 4.4% to 12%.”
Discounts to large technology companies’ power may come at the cost of increased rates for other consumers.
Source
MIT Technology Review is an independent news organization which has informal ties to MIT and editors with technical expertise.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Institutions considering AI technology should weigh its environmental impact and push companies to be transparent. AI energy usage and how it is subsidized may cause cost increases for ancillary technology services.
Full citation
O’Donnell, J., & Crownhart, C. (2025, May 20). We did the math on AI’s energy footprint. Here’s the story you haven’t heard. MIT Technology Review. https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/20/1116327/ai-energy-usage-climate-footprint-big-tech/
Summary
This Guardian newspaper article discusses the findings of a recent study, “Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets,” published in the Journal of Communications Earth and Environment. The research warns that sea level rise is accelerating at an alarming rate, posing a severe threat to coastal cities and potentially triggering mass migration on an unprecedented scale. The authors emphasize the urgent need to reassess what global temperature limits are realistically achievable to mitigate these outcomes.
Key Points
“The loss of ice from the giant Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s due to the climate crisis and is now the principal driver of sea level rise.”
“Even just 20cm of sea level rise by 2050 would lead to global flood damages of at least $1 trillion a year for the world’s 136 largest coastal cities and huge impacts on people’s lives and livelihoods.”
Source
The Guardian operates under an independent trust structure, allowing it to maintain editorial independence and limit political or commercial influence over its reporting.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This article highlights the broader societal disruptions that could result from climate change, particularly in coastal regions. The anticipated scale of displacement and damage has serious implications for cultural heritage institutions and digital preservation efforts, as archives, infrastructure, and communities may be at risk.
Citation
Carrington, D. (2025, May 20). Sea level rise will cause ‘catastrophic inland migration’, scientists warn. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/20/sea-level-rise-migration
Summary
Most current climate adaptation planning does not adequately calibrate adaptation limits, leaving populations vulnerable to spending resources on adaptation and still not being amply prepared. While incorporating worst-case scenarios based on dynamic and evolving research may seem unrealistic, this article uses mathematical models to demonstrate the cost benefits of incorporating near, medium, and long-term climate scenarios into adaptation plans.
Key Points
In order to adequately define a population’s adaptation limits—“the point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions”—models must incorporate a full range of future climate scenarios, including potential climate overshoots, such as global warming exceeding 1.5° C.
Because climate data and mitigation efforts are evolving and it is unclear whether certain impacts are reversible or not, creating adaptation plans that incorporate near (2030s), medium (2050s) and long (2100s) -term scenarios is the most cost-beneficial approach and provides the best assurance that planning is not short-sighted and maladaptive.
Local policymakers feel there is a lack of understanding and capacity for how to plan for climate overshoot scenarios, and there is a tendency towards short-term planning because that often seems like the most cost-realistic way to respond.
Source
Published in Climate Policy, a peer-reviewed, international, academic journal focused on research and analysis of all aspects of climate policy, such as mitigation and adaptation.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Preservationists work on long time scales but often, as with other fields, we make decisions based on shorter-term realities, such as availability of funds and organizational contexts. Planning for the worst-case scenarios often does not seem like the most realistic deployment of resources, but research that incorporates economic mathematical models to illustrate the bigger picture of cost benefits of holistic planning is a useful reframing.
There are still research and policy gaps that need to be addressed in this area, but as the field of digital preservation begins to seriously engage in adaptive planning, this is a valuable concept to integrate.
Full citation
Theokritoff, E., Lejeune, Q., Costa, H. P., Irfan, K., Khan, M. S., Kropf, C. M., Lindberg, H. G., Marques, I. G., Menke, I., Schleussner, C.-F., Thomas, A., & Lourenço, T. C. (2025). Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning. Climate Policy, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2502111
Summary
This New York Times article explores the findings of a recent scientific study titled “Land Subsidence Risk to Infrastructure in US Metropolises,” published in Nature Cities. The study uses satellite data to track vertical land movement across U.S. cities and investigates how shifts in ground level—particularly due to groundwater depletion—pose a growing risk to urban infrastructure.
Key Points
“The sinking of land, also called subsidence, can worsen the effects of sea-level rise, intensify flooding and strain the very foundations of urban infrastructure.”
Over-extraction of groundwater—especially in arid regions—is a major contributor to land subsidence, a problem exacerbated by climate change and population migration to drier areas.
Source
New York Times
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Land subsidence can lead to flooding and structural damage to roads, buildings, and utilities, posing a significant threat to archival infrastructure and data centers. The increasing vulnerability of urban environments highlights the need for resilient digital preservation strategies in the face of climate-driven risks.
Citation
Rojanasakul, M. (2025, May 8). Across America, Big Cities Are Sinking. Here’s Why. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/05/08/climate/sinking-cities-us-causes-groundwater.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Kk8.tUYI.21DY2OarWKob&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Archived version: https://web.archive.org/web/20250614131930/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/05/08/climate/sinking-cities-us-causes-groundwater.html
Summary
This study utilizes data from 30 countries collected in the form of surveys to examine the nexus of climate change awareness, environmental concern, and support for environmental policies. The study finds that while awareness is widespread, that does not necessarily lead to support for climate mitigation and environmental policies. The study reveals “an inverse relationship between national income levels and support for climate and environmental policies, with higher-income countries showing decreased support.”
Key Points
A country’s national economic development has a large impact on concern and support for the environment/climate change causes by individuals.
Support for climate and environmental policies decreases in wealthier nations because of perceived economic cost.
Lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries exhibit stronger support for environmental policies due to less established environmental frameworks
Communication strategies should be “tailored to national social and economic realities.”
Source
Climate Policy is a world-leading peer-reviewed academic journal, publishing high quality research and analysis on all aspects of climate policy, including mitigation and adaptation.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
While not explicitly linked to digital preservation, this article offers suggestions for promoting environmental causes and advocating for environmental policy. Environmental policy has an effect on data centers and other infrastructure.
Full citation
Peñasco, C., & Grossman, E. (2025). The paradox of environmental consciousness: dissecting the gap between climate change awareness, environmental concern and policy support. Climate Policy, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2025.2479814
Summary
New analyses of methane trapped in Antarctic ice cores during the last ice age (circa 115,000 to 11,500 years ago) suggest that abrupt, dramatic, and global changes in climate during that period coincided with substantial increases in wildfire activity. The fires, alongside drought conditions, were cascading consequences of these changes, which included temperature fluctuations and significant shifts in tropical rainfall patterns. The surge in fire activity resulted in sharp increases in methane (CH4) and potentially carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.
Key Points
“The findings of this study show that global fire regimes varied contemporaneously and substantially with past climate changes over very short time periods and reveal a new mechanistic relationship between CH4 and CO2, the terrestrial carbon cycle and abrupt climate change.”
Annual emissions associated with wildfire activity increased by 90-150% at the beginning of each period of iceberg collapses into the North Atlantic Ocean that was studied. In three cases, the authors estimate that increased fire activity in anywhere from one-third to all of the increased carbon dioxide levels during those periods “and that these [biomass burning] events combusted an additional 285–637 million hectares per year at their peak; equivalent to 1/2 to roughly all of modern annual global burned area.”
Rapid changes in methane of 50-150 parts per billion coincided with “abrupt, millennial-scale” temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere. These temperature changes were also related to fluctuations in tropical rainfall and monsoon intensity as well as significant iceberg melt.
Source
Nature is an international journal publishing “peer-reviewed research in all fields of science and technology.”
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Risk assessment and management are critical to preservation planning and decisions. Individuals and organizations working in regions that are experiencing or prone to fluctuations in temperatures and rainfall patterns should also account for an increased risk of wildfire activity and methane and carbon dioxide levels.
Full citation
Riddell-Young, B., Lee, J. E., Brook, E. J., Schmitt, J., Fischer, H., Bauska, T. K., Menking, J. A., Iseli, R., & Clark, J. R. (2025). Abrupt changes in biomass burning during the last glacial period. Nature, 637(8044), 91–96. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08363-3
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